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Analysis

Russia’s long game in Africa and Latin America

It began with bananas and Soviet-era weapons. In early 2024, Ecuador tried to offload its ageing Russian arms stockpile to the United States, which intended to pass it on to Ukraine. Moscow responded with a trade war, partially banning Ecuadorian banana imports and sending shockwaves through the country’s economy. Within weeks, Quito backed off from the deal, caught between western alliances and dependence on Russian trade.

September 27, 2025 - Alice Volfson

Russian cultural diplomacy in Germany: between promoting Russia and undermining Ukraine

A number of facts testify to Russia’s destructive influence abroad through disinformation or direct interference in the domestic politics of countries, alongside the financing of political forces. Yet, there is another less obvious (and therefore even more dangerous) Russian Trojan horse – the institutions of cultural diplomacy, which under the cover of culture promote the Kremlin's agenda and anti-Ukrainian narratives. Despite the war, Germany still remains one of the most affected EU countries by Russian soft influence.

September 27, 2025 - Maria Protsiuk

Italy and Russia: a never-ending love story

In Italy, public scepticism about Russia’s war in Ukraine has grown, with recent polls showing declining support for Kyiv and rising neutrality. Some political figures, from both the right and the left, have tapped into this sentiment, highlighting its broad appeal across the spectrum. Understanding this trend requires looking at Italy’s unique political history, including the enduring legacy of its communist party during the Cold War.

September 27, 2025 - Aleksej Tilman

Europe’s heavy cost of dependency

While the European Union is developing plans to finally and completely cut itself off from Russian oil and gas supplies, the solutions it has found are less than ideal. This illustrates the challenge that Europe faces in overcoming its dependency on Russia, while at the same time not giving in to massive fossil fuel development. To make matters worse, Europe cannot escape the geopolitical dimension of fossil fuels.

September 27, 2025 - Raze Baziani

The disfigured spectrum: how post-communist legacies distort conservatism and democracy

Under one-party rule, political legitimacy does not come from adhering to constitutional limits but from exercising unchallenged authority in the name of the “correct” cause – once framed as ideological duty, now justified as cultural defence or popular sovereignty. The ingrained habit of bending institutions to political will, rather than letting them operate autonomously, was embedded in political culture over decades and passed on to the post-1989 elite, many of whom now lead ostensibly democratic states.

September 27, 2025 - Adam Reichardt

The EU-US policy divide over Belarus

As the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on with little movement towards President Donald Trump’s pledged “24-hour resolution”, other arenas have gained momentum in his second-term foreign policy. Amid this dynamic context, Minsk has recently surfaced as a new, previously untapped, yet demonstrably successful venue for his deal-making agenda – and a potential strategic lever in Washington’s efforts to shake up the war next door.

September 27, 2025 - Vitali Matyshau

Built with doubt and worry: NATO in the second Trump presidency

Declaring that NATO is on the cusp of dying is premature. It is far from moribund. However, while the Alliance will likely persist, this does not mean that it has a clean slate of health.

September 26, 2025 - Alexander Lanoszka

NATO during the second Trump administration: Actions speak louder than words

Many recent assessments of US foreign policy suggest that the second presidential term of Donald Trump is having a disruptive and potentially destructive impact on transatlantic relations. This is particularly the case regarding NATO’s future and the American commitment to European security. However, fears that the administration will renege on the US commitment to European security and NATO are simply misplaced.

September 26, 2025 - Luca Ratti

When European security meets reality

Russia’s full-scale military invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory has flagrantly violated the fragile post-Cold War security ecosystem shaped by the transatlantic community. The intricate structure of European security requires bold and decisive action to establish an effective and credible mechanism of deterrence and response. Such a mechanism must rest upon a multi-level construction of the transatlantic security community.

September 26, 2025 - Artur Gruszczak

NATO in times of crisis. Safeguarding the future of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance

At its 2025 summit in The Hague, NATO confronted a pivotal moment, agreeing on a historic pledge to spend five per cent of GDP on defence by 2035. The decision was welcomed by US President Donald Trump and signalled unity. However, it also exposed deep undercurrents of challenges facing the Alliance.

September 26, 2025 - Wojciech Michnik

Not all quiet on the Southern Flank

The 2025 NATO summit in The Hague marked a strategic turning point for European and Mediterranean security, compelling Allies to commit to a substantial increase in defence investment. This renewed focus is not solely about countering Russia on the Eastern Flank. It should also provide fresh resources to address enduring vulnerabilities and asymmetries across the South.

September 26, 2025 - Michele Testoni

Beyond nuclear gradualism: pathways for NATO to enhance deterrence

NATO faces an increasingly complex security environment, marked by Russia's advanced missile capabilities and persistent coercive strategies. How can the Alliance adapt its deterrence posture, integrating both nuclear and conventional means, to remain credible and unified in an era of significant geopolitical flux and evolving strategic stability concepts?

September 26, 2025 - Alessandro Leonardi

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