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Analysis

Inside Viktor Orbán’s worst political crisis yet

There is no sugar-coating it: after 15 years of unchecked power, Hungary’s Fidesz has plunged into its most severe political crisis yet. Worsening economic data, the rise of a far more potent opposition, and shifting international political trends have led to an unprecedented situation. For much of 2025, Fidesz has no longer been the strongest party. That position now belongs to the new challenger, Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party.

With parliamentary elections scheduled in Hungary for next year, it is now entirely possible, though still hard to believe, that the Viktor Orbán regime could come to an end. Yet the situation is far from simple. Orbán and his allies still possess overwhelming economic power and, crucially, continue to conduct precise polling on voter attitudes.

July 8, 2025 - Samu Czabán

Authoritarian sandbox: Belarus as a testing ground for 21st century repression

This year’s so-called presidential elections in Belarus were nothing more than a staged farce, designed to legitimize Lukashenka’s continued authoritarian rule. The absence of genuine competition, the lack of transparency, and the climate of fear surrounding the process underscored the regime’s disregard for democratic principles.

The 2025 “presidential elections” in Belarus have come and gone, leaving behind a predictable outcome: a reaffirmation of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s authoritarian grip on power. Far from resembling a legitimate democratic process, the elections were a meticulously staged performance, devoid of genuine opposition, independent observers or transparency. This farce was not merely an exercise in self-reappointment – it was a glaring demonstration of a regime clinging to power through fear and repression.

July 8, 2025 - Leanid Marozau

Belarus after the war: at a crossroads

A possible truce in Russia’s war against Ukraine, resulting in what could be a frozen conflict, looks to be the best scenario for Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On the one hand, Russia would not completely shift away from its military focus, keeping a large army near the front line and preparing for possible future operations. On the other hand, a truce could help open the door to a partial lifting of western sanctions, many of which were imposed alongside Russia.

In late 2024, the potential return of Donald Trump was perceived by the Belarusian authorities as a window of opportunity for political bargaining with the West in the shadow of the start of possible peace talks over the Russo-Ukrainian War. In order to be as prepared as possible, the Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka held his electoral campaign six months before the end of his 2020 presidential term, right on the verge of the inauguration of the new US president.

July 8, 2025 - Pavlo Rad

Why the Black Sea is vital to Ukraine

Ukraine’s successes in the Black Sea are among the most unexpected developments in the current war waged by Russia in the country since 2022. Russia aimed to defeat Ukraine not only through military means but also by crippling its economy. This scenario did not materialize. On the contrary, Ukraine's military, economic and logistical gains in the Black Sea and Danube waterways secured critical export revenues for Kyiv, allowing the Ukrainian state to function.

On February 24th 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine not only from land and air, but also from the sea. The Russian fleet occupied the entire Azov Sea and almost all of the Ukrainian Black Sea basin. At first, the Russians captured the strategically important Snake Island located near the coast of Romania. For several months they also occupied Kherson and its seaport, as well as attempted a landing at Odesa. They blocked Ukrainian ports to strangle the economy, drive the state budget into bankruptcy and cause social unrest. The Kremlin hoped that the lack of export revenues would in the end lead to Kyiv’s capitulation.

July 8, 2025 - Jakub Łoginow

Balancing values and interests. NATO’s constrained engagement in the South Caucasus

Considering the current turmoil in transatlantic affairs, NATO's room for manoeuvre in the South Caucasus is constrained by broader geopolitical rivalries and its limited capacity to prioritize this region as well. Russia maintains a strong military and hybrid influence in the region, while Iran’s ambitions and China’s expanding economic footprint further limit western leverage.

It has been a while since the NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative position for the Caucasus and Central Asia became vacant. Since its establishment in 2004, it has served as the eyes and the ears of the Alliance, facilitating the implementation of NATO’s foreign policy, monitoring internal political developments and reforms, and liaising with local governments.

July 8, 2025 - Nino Lezhava

Georgian Dream’s war with reality

In the shifting landscape of Georgian politics, one phrase has come to dominate political discourse in recent months: the “Global War Party”. Introduced by officials from the ruling Georgian Dream party, the term is now used regularly to discredit opposition figures, civil society, and even western allies.

Georgia has long been a battleground for Russia to test its hybrid warfare tactics before applying them to the West. In this context, Georgia became the perfect testing ground for dangerous propaganda. It was here that the narrative of the “Global War Party" began to take shape, fuelled by the rhetoric of Georgia’s ruling party in 2022. This marked the time when the Georgian Dream (GD) party began labelling opposition parties as the "Party of War" or "Party of Betrayal", all part of a calculated effort to manipulate public perceptions. This marked the inception of a new term that would gain prominence in the coming years.

July 8, 2025 - Tinatin Lolomadze

Armenia’s pivot to the EU

On March 26th 2025 the Armenian parliament passed a law declaring its intention to apply for membership of the European Union. Although the law does not constitute a formal application for EU membership, it is a clear signal of Armenia’s willingness to move out of Russia’s orbit and develop closer relations with the West. However, the path to closer European integration is fraught with obstacles.

In recent years, Armenia has expressed a strong political will to deepen its relations with the EU. In a speech to the European Parliament on October 17th 2023 the prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, stated that “Armenia is ready to move as close to the EU as the EU deems possible.” The foreign minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, reiterated this in November 2023 after the European Commission recommended granting candidate status to neighbouring Georgia, stating that the Armenian people have European aspirations and are committed to closer relations with the EU. Abandoned by its traditional security ally Russia, these statements clearly underline Armenia's willingness to turn away from Moscow.

July 8, 2025 - Leonie Nienhaus

Europe’s complex relationship with Azerbaijan

Relations between Brussels and Baku have largely been based around continued shipments of oil and gas from the Caspian Sea. However, such links obscure a delicate human rights situation in Azerbaijan that ultimately challenges Europe’s ability to both bolster and promote its liberal democratic values in the wider region.

Four years ago, Günel Hasanli was secretly filmed at home having consensual sex with her boyfriend. The video of the 38-year-old Azerbaijani woman later went viral on social media. Hasanli was publicly humiliated, it seems, for being the daughter of Jamil Hasanli: a prominent Azerbaijani historian, author and opposition politician.

July 8, 2025 - JP O'Malley

Between law and loyalty: Milorad Dodik and the challenge to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s statehood

Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing a key challenge. Will it manage to preserve its constitutional order or will the political will of one man prevail over the state’s laws and international obligations? Milorad Dodik is not just a symptom of the problem, but its embodiment.

he political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is currently facing its deepest institutional and legal crisis since the end of the war. Deep divisions are present at all levels of government and are most evident in the political moves of Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority entity of BiH. Dodik has become a key political actor whose actions often cause divisions both within and outside of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

July 8, 2025 - Samir Comaga

The Russian ontology

The language used in literature and public discourse is not just a mirror of society, it is part of its very structure. By the tracing historical frequencies of certain key words and expressions in Russian texts, we can uncover patterns that reflect the deeper cultural, ideological and psychological shifts in Russian society. What do these linguistic trends reveal about Russia’s past, present and possible future?

Quantitative, artificial intelligence-based methods can be fruitful also in the humanities. In order to conduct research, one needs, though, an a priori formulated theory, what is in AI research referred to as an ontology, in order to know what to search for. It does not mean that AI research in any field is limited to a priori formulated principles; it usually yields results and formulates new concepts which go far beyond the theory formulated in the first place.

July 8, 2025 - David Hallbeck

Resisting foreign interference: Poland’s presidential election and the Russian challenge

During the months leading up to the June 1st presidential run-off in Poland, the government in Warsaw repeatedly warned of Russian disinformation and interference. But as the dust settled after the vote, a different picture began to emerge. Did Poland really face the threat it claimed – and has it passed the test?

June 10, 2025 - Agata Pyka

Ending the OHR’s “Bonn Powers” to save Bosnia and Herzegovina (again)

The complex legal setup governing Bosnia and Herzegovina now appears to be in need of an update. While the system has brought stability to a country still dealing with the legacy of war, it is now creating more problems that it is capable of solving.

May 30, 2025 - Ivan Pepic

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