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Analysis

Zero margins: Model shows Europe’s long odds in a Baltic war

As Washington increasingly adopts a more transactional approach to defence in Europe, the threat to those states on the border with Russia increases. Simulations suggest that while Europe remains more powerful, it may simply be unable to overcome internal differences in time to stop Moscow’s plans.

January 19, 2026 - Dragoman Praxis

Normalizing pro-Russia narratives straight from the Kremlin playbook: an autopsy of an average Italian social media feed

Russian disinformation is highly visible in Italian social media. The flat, open, and porous nature of the platforms offers fertile ground for such influence to spread and normalize.

December 10, 2025 - Stefano Braghiroli

Looking for heroes. Experiences in Latvia

Latvia’s understanding of heroism has been rewritten repeatedly over the past century, shaped in turn by Soviet occupation, the struggle for independence and the challenges of democratic renewal. Each era constructed its heroes – some imposed, some rediscovered, others newly recognised. Today, debates over memory, justice and national identity continue to determine which lives are honoured and which stories are told.

December 8, 2025 - Vita Zelče

Poland’s borderland on fire

Russian hybrid attacks are meant to increasingly disrupt our everyday reality. When positioned together, these incidents form a troubling pattern: disinformation campaigns, foreign intelligence groups, acts of sabotage, explosives discovered in cemeteries or mailed in envelopes – all contributing to a general state of anxiety and heightened alert. Strengthening preparedness to meet security challenges is one of the most reliable ways to mitigate such concerns.

December 8, 2025 - Jan Farfał

Establishing NATO’s “East Shield”

The situation on the Polish eastern border has demonstrated that threats to Poland and the European Union are no longer purely military. Hybrid warfare directed westwards is made up of a composite of orchestrated migration, cyberattacks, disinformation and acts of border sabotage. This complex threat landscape demands an equally sophisticated and multidimensional response.

December 8, 2025 - Alicja Zyguła Tomasz Stępniewski

When grief becomes routine

After the start of the full-scale invasion, I began recording the first stories of those affected by the war. Every conversation struck me. The pain of others, which I had to let pass through me, was so exhausting that I still do not remember what happened to me in those months. Over the course of three years, I wrote down more than 200 stories. I remember each of them. They are a huge part of my consciousness.

December 8, 2025 - Polina Vernyhor

Taking Ukraine’s corruption seriously

Ukraine’s fight against corruption has become a cornerstone of both its democratic transformation and EU integration efforts. The current political establishment rose to power with Zelenskyy’s campaign promise of zero tolerance for corruption. Yet, despite undeniable progress in the last few years, it remains deeply systemic and persistent.

December 8, 2025 - Alessandro Vitiello

Ukraine’s education reform amidst the war

In Ukraine, the new school curriculum allocates between 70 and 105 hours per school year to civic education and history for fifth to eighth grade pupils. This amounts to just one hour per week for Ukrainian history, half an hour for world history and half an hour for civic education. In Russia, the situation is the reverse.

December 8, 2025 - Oleksii Lionchuk

A test of Sandu’s success

Have Moldova’s ruling leaders correctly interpreted the outcome of the recent elections? If they take the results as proof of their own infallibility and political invincibility, the country’s European path could encounter serious obstacles. This is especially true as Russia may change its approach towards Moldova. And that is hardly good news.

December 8, 2025 - Piotr Oleksy

Moldova’s pro-West forces need to set a new agenda

In the September 2025 parliamentary elections, Moldova’s pro-West Action and Solidarity Party won with 50.20 per cent. During the campaign the party promised nothing new, and it appears to have been enough. In the end, Moldovans voted for no change and trusted the current set of affairs. The new goal is to sign the EU accession treaty by 2028 and for this to happen, a set of ambitious reforms should be implemented and the government should look beyond adopting new European laws.

December 8, 2025 - Dan Nicorici

Belarus between a spin dictatorship and a dictatorship of fear

Five years after the 2020 protests, Belarus has entered a phase of authoritarian consolidation, further entrenching its overtly dictatorial character and deepening its dependence on Russia. Real power remains concentrated in the hands of the entrenched ruling elite, which has redoubled its efforts in the realms of propaganda, historical policy, and state ideology.

December 7, 2025 - Maxim Rust

An alliance of creepy uncles

In a letter to the Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka, Donald Trump wrote that he and his wife were “praying for your health and well-being, as well as for further progress in pursuing our common goals on behalf of the people of the United States and Belarus”. Equally charming towards Trump, on the day of the release of political prisoners Lukashenka said: “our main task is to stand by Trump and help him in his mission to establish peace. He stopped seven wars and conflicts, or six”.

December 7, 2025 - Kacper Wańczyk

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