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Analysis

Propaganda’s mixed response to Russia’s provocation against Poland

The incursion of Russian drones and missiles into Polish airspace echoes the “ikhtamnet” tactic, a sarcastic term for a Russian soldier or mercenary whose deployment abroad is denied by the Kremlin, a strategy long tested in Ukraine and now evident here. The Kremlin is testing NATO’s red lines, while its propaganda machine works to cover the tracks of a creeping war.

September 22, 2025 - Lesia Bidochko

Europe’s narrowing menu on policy towards Belarus

Since even before 2020, EU sanctions against Belarus have failed to achieve their core goals, neither crippling the economy nor forcing a change in Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s behaviour. Instead, the EU strategy has arguably backfired – tightening authoritarian control, worsening human rights conditions, and even bolstering domestic support for the regime.

September 17, 2025 - Vitali Matyshau

Consequences and complications of Russian drones in NATO airspace

Poland's decision to shoot down Russian aerial assets was unprecedented for NATO’s eastern flank. Despite the limited scale of the provocation, the operation demonstrated that NATO interoperability remains at a high level. In reaction to Russia’s actions, Poland invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty and requested urgent consultations, which took place on September 10th.

September 16, 2025 - Jakub Bornio

Russian drones in Poland, will NATO pass the test?

NATO has the opportunity to demonstrate its own strength without a direct military clash with Russia if it takes decisive steps after this provocation. Otherwise, new attempts by the Russian side to penetrate the Alliance’s airspace will be even more large-scale and provocative.

September 11, 2025 - Anton Naychuk

From Verdun to the 21st century

The European Union has the financial resources to defend itself. But it lacks the political will to do so. This political will needs to be asserted and require important decisions to be made now.

September 8, 2025 - Jean-Yves Leconte

Scenarios for the end of the war

Ongoing talk about a potential peace deal in Ukraine must now encourage discussion regarding its specifics. Kyiv, and with it all of Europe, is currently faced with a range of positive and negative scenarios, with cooperation from western allies needed to ensure the best outcome possible.

September 1, 2025 - Andrii Dligach Valerii Pekar

Who is leading and lagging on democracy and reforms in the EU’s Eastern Partnership?

The 2025 Eastern Partnership Index tracks the democratic transformation and European integration in the countries that participated in the initiative.

July 16, 2025 - Kerry Longhurst

Inside Viktor Orbán’s worst political crisis yet

There is no sugar-coating it: after 15 years of unchecked power, Hungary’s Fidesz has plunged into its most severe political crisis yet. Worsening economic data, the rise of a far more potent opposition, and shifting international political trends have led to an unprecedented situation. For much of 2025, Fidesz has no longer been the strongest party. That position now belongs to the new challenger, Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party.

With parliamentary elections scheduled in Hungary for next year, it is now entirely possible, though still hard to believe, that the Viktor Orbán regime could come to an end. Yet the situation is far from simple. Orbán and his allies still possess overwhelming economic power and, crucially, continue to conduct precise polling on voter attitudes.

July 8, 2025 - Samu Czabán

Authoritarian sandbox: Belarus as a testing ground for 21st century repression

This year’s so-called presidential elections in Belarus were nothing more than a staged farce, designed to legitimize Lukashenka’s continued authoritarian rule. The absence of genuine competition, the lack of transparency, and the climate of fear surrounding the process underscored the regime’s disregard for democratic principles.

The 2025 “presidential elections” in Belarus have come and gone, leaving behind a predictable outcome: a reaffirmation of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s authoritarian grip on power. Far from resembling a legitimate democratic process, the elections were a meticulously staged performance, devoid of genuine opposition, independent observers or transparency. This farce was not merely an exercise in self-reappointment – it was a glaring demonstration of a regime clinging to power through fear and repression.

July 8, 2025 - Leanid Marozau

Belarus after the war: at a crossroads

A possible truce in Russia’s war against Ukraine, resulting in what could be a frozen conflict, looks to be the best scenario for Alyaksandr Lukashenka. On the one hand, Russia would not completely shift away from its military focus, keeping a large army near the front line and preparing for possible future operations. On the other hand, a truce could help open the door to a partial lifting of western sanctions, many of which were imposed alongside Russia.

In late 2024, the potential return of Donald Trump was perceived by the Belarusian authorities as a window of opportunity for political bargaining with the West in the shadow of the start of possible peace talks over the Russo-Ukrainian War. In order to be as prepared as possible, the Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka held his electoral campaign six months before the end of his 2020 presidential term, right on the verge of the inauguration of the new US president.

July 8, 2025 - Pavlo Rad

Why the Black Sea is vital to Ukraine

Ukraine’s successes in the Black Sea are among the most unexpected developments in the current war waged by Russia in the country since 2022. Russia aimed to defeat Ukraine not only through military means but also by crippling its economy. This scenario did not materialize. On the contrary, Ukraine's military, economic and logistical gains in the Black Sea and Danube waterways secured critical export revenues for Kyiv, allowing the Ukrainian state to function.

On February 24th 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine not only from land and air, but also from the sea. The Russian fleet occupied the entire Azov Sea and almost all of the Ukrainian Black Sea basin. At first, the Russians captured the strategically important Snake Island located near the coast of Romania. For several months they also occupied Kherson and its seaport, as well as attempted a landing at Odesa. They blocked Ukrainian ports to strangle the economy, drive the state budget into bankruptcy and cause social unrest. The Kremlin hoped that the lack of export revenues would in the end lead to Kyiv’s capitulation.

July 8, 2025 - Jakub Łoginow

Balancing values and interests. NATO’s constrained engagement in the South Caucasus

Considering the current turmoil in transatlantic affairs, NATO's room for manoeuvre in the South Caucasus is constrained by broader geopolitical rivalries and its limited capacity to prioritize this region as well. Russia maintains a strong military and hybrid influence in the region, while Iran’s ambitions and China’s expanding economic footprint further limit western leverage.

It has been a while since the NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative position for the Caucasus and Central Asia became vacant. Since its establishment in 2004, it has served as the eyes and the ears of the Alliance, facilitating the implementation of NATO’s foreign policy, monitoring internal political developments and reforms, and liaising with local governments.

July 8, 2025 - Nino Lezhava

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