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War, inflation and central banks

The people who head the central banks of Belarus, Ukraine and Russia are usually regarded both in the West and in the expert circles of their countries as the most liberal or technocratic in the economic governance structures. They are all well-read, experienced and have contacts abroad. However, the institutional reality of Belarus, Russia and even Ukraine is that all three central banks remain heavily dependent on the presidential centres.

In the many economic analyses of the countries involved in the war on the borders of the European Union, little attention is paid to the role of the central banks of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. However, a look at their functioning allows us to gain not only a better understanding of the current economic policies of Kyiv, Minsk and Moscow but also an insight into the peculiarities of these countries’ economic systems.

February 7, 2024 - Kacper Wańczyk - AnalysisIssue 1-2 2024Magazine

Photo: E. O. / Shutterstock

Ukraine – inflation, stabilisation and recovery money

Since the end of July 2023 the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) started to cut the base interest rate. The rate was kept on the level of 25 per cent since March 2022, the beginning of the Russia’s second stage of invasion. After the last decision taken in December, the rate was established on the level of 15 per cent. In Ukraine, decisions like these are taken by a committee composed exclusively of senior bank officials, with no external actors involved. The NBU notes that inflation in Ukraine is finally slowing, which allowed monetary policy to be loosened. Inflation for the full year of 2023 was registered on the level 5.1 percent, slightly lower than the expected 5.8 per cent. For the whole of 2022, inflation remained at 20.2 per cent, lower than that in 2015, the first full year of the Russian aggression, when it rose to 48.7 per cent.

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