Analysis

Disinformation has become an effective weapon in Russia’s ongoing assault against Ukraine. However, there is currently little that can be done to prosecute those guilty of spreading such dangerous narratives. A new framework is needed in order to effectively challenge this key part of Moscow’s war.

The brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine, the full-scale stage of which began in February 2022, was both preceded and further accompanied by a rampant propaganda campaign that reached new heights of cynicism, bloodthirstiness and warmongering in just a matter of days. The propaganda machine spent immense resources on justifying Moscow’s heinous acts of aggression by employing a combination of manipulative and selective reporting on the hostilities in eastern Ukraine.

The Russian war against Ukraine has substantially changed perceptions of conflict and crisis in the European Union. As a recent comparison study shows, the conflict has encouraged fears of war, awareness of developments in Ukraine, questions concerning the broader frame of this war, and the involvement of the respective countries in it.

A recent study sought to design and investigate possible alternative (and mutually exclusive) futures for Belarus. The scenarios from that study presented here can act as a compass to help observers make sense of Belarus’s future direction. This is in spite of the dense fog of regional geopolitics and Lukashenka’s often unreadable black box of repression.

The ongoing crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine have shocked audiences across the world. However, there appears to be a certain banal nature to these seemingly extraordinary events. A reflection on the writing of Hannah Arendt may help us better understand how such unmitigated evil can occur on an everyday basis.

In early spring 2022, as the horrors of the crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine came to light, a picture of a looted house was posted on Twitter. In the image, among the many items scattered across the floor, there was a book with ripped pages titled Банальність зла. Суд над Айхманом в Єрусалимі (Eichmann in Jerusalem: A Report on the Banality of Evil).

The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam aligns with tactics employed by Russian forces in various contexts before. This strategy involves the complete destruction of territories in active combat to gain a military advantage and instil fear in opponents. Understanding the Russian scorched earth tactic, and drawing from Ukraine's experience encountering it, is now crucial when planning operations against Russian military forces.

Russian aggression against Ukraine has gained notoriety due to numerous violations of international law and human rights committed by Russian troops. Tragic incidents such as the events in Bucha, Izium and Mariupol have left an indelible mark on human history. The sheer quantity of crimes committed is staggering, leading to valid assertions of a planned genocide of the Ukrainian population orchestrated by high-ranking Russian officials.

The Russian system of governance is known for its vertical power structure, with Vladimir Putin at the top balancing all other interests. However, since the mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin in June 2023, some cracks are starting to show in the system. Understanding its current configuration can help us predict in which direction the system may head, as Putin tries to compensate for his state’s many failings at home and abroad.

There are many rumours regarding how contemporary Russia is being ruled and who is the “unknown puppet master” holding all the “strings”. Overall, the Russian political system is more akin to the Byzantine model of governance than the Roman one, and is prone to instability and conflict. The recent mutiny by the Wagner Group, a private military company led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, is a sign that the system is breaking down.

Popular music has become an important propaganda tool to rally Russians in support of the war against Ukraine. An analysis of the ten most popular songs created during the war demonstrates common themes which have emerged, including patriotism, nationalism, religion and feelings for the motherland.

Music is the art most intimately connected to time. Indeed, it serves as a time machine for the transmission of culture, collective memory, concepts, mental states and feelings. But music has other purposes as well. It has a long history of being used as a strong tool for soft power. The Voice of America radio channel in communist countries was a striking example of this. Additionally, artists have utilised it as a form of protest. For example, the Polish rock group "Tilt" found in music the only way to express its rebellion against the communist regime in the 1980s.

In the autumn of 2023 Slovaks will elect a new parliament in an early election. Since March 2023, Smer, the party of former Prime Minister Robert Fico, has been leading opinion polls and is expected to win the election. What would Fico’s return mean for Slovakia, the region and the rest of Europe?

There was a time when you almost never heard talk of emigration in Slovakia. Just before the pandemic hit, discussion about the big return of Slovaks who had left in the 1990s was still the topic of the day. Not in the summer of 2023. Nowadays, people buying flight tickets for their foreign holidays would more often than not utter the running joke that perhaps they should only take the one-way fare.

Following the elections in April 2022, the new Slovenian government has displayed ambitions to make the country an active regional player and an intermediary between the Western Balkan states and Central Europe. However, the geopolitics of the wider region, including Russia’s war in Ukraine, may force it to face some uncomfortable trends.

In the Balkans July and August are always the peak tourist season, with flocks of North European vacationers coming here to enjoy the beauty of the Adriatic coast and the warm Mediterranean sun. Traditionally, their preferred destination is Croatia, with its stunning Dalmatian beaches, beautiful Istria, numerous islands and national parks. Neighbouring from the north Slovenia is less popular. It is more often used as a transit country for travellers who are en route to Croatia.

Russia’s political and social behaviour can seem surprising. It is like there always is, despite a relatively highly educated population and access to western, liberal ideas, a return to archaic, paternalistic, antagonistic and violent structures and behaviours. Can this be due to a combination of traditional family structures, late development of literacy, and relative isolation, rendered possible by a certain economic and political autarchy? Were the changes of the early 1990s illusory, carried by groups and people whose influence was only accidental and now the old structures return?

The subject material from which we draw lessons is often ambiguous. Were the operational failures that Russia experienced in the spring of 2022 the result of incompetence? Or were they perversely the result of Russia holding back the use of force out of the mistaken belief that conquest against cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv would be easy? Lessons can go in different directions even if we are all looking at the same thing.