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Analysis

NATO during the second Trump administration: Actions speak louder than words

Many recent assessments of US foreign policy suggest that the second presidential term of Donald Trump is having a disruptive and potentially destructive impact on transatlantic relations. This is particularly the case regarding NATO’s future and the American commitment to European security. However, fears that the administration will renege on the US commitment to European security and NATO are simply misplaced.

September 26, 2025 - Luca Ratti

When European security meets reality

Russia’s full-scale military invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory has flagrantly violated the fragile post-Cold War security ecosystem shaped by the transatlantic community. The intricate structure of European security requires bold and decisive action to establish an effective and credible mechanism of deterrence and response. Such a mechanism must rest upon a multi-level construction of the transatlantic security community.

September 26, 2025 - Artur Gruszczak

NATO in times of crisis. Safeguarding the future of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance

At its 2025 summit in The Hague, NATO confronted a pivotal moment, agreeing on a historic pledge to spend five per cent of GDP on defence by 2035. The decision was welcomed by US President Donald Trump and signalled unity. However, it also exposed deep undercurrents of challenges facing the Alliance.

September 26, 2025 - Wojciech Michnik

Not all quiet on the Southern Flank

The 2025 NATO summit in The Hague marked a strategic turning point for European and Mediterranean security, compelling Allies to commit to a substantial increase in defence investment. This renewed focus is not solely about countering Russia on the Eastern Flank. It should also provide fresh resources to address enduring vulnerabilities and asymmetries across the South.

September 26, 2025 - Michele Testoni

Beyond nuclear gradualism: pathways for NATO to enhance deterrence

NATO faces an increasingly complex security environment, marked by Russia's advanced missile capabilities and persistent coercive strategies. How can the Alliance adapt its deterrence posture, integrating both nuclear and conventional means, to remain credible and unified in an era of significant geopolitical flux and evolving strategic stability concepts?

September 26, 2025 - Alessandro Leonardi

Propaganda’s mixed response to Russia’s provocation against Poland

The incursion of Russian drones and missiles into Polish airspace echoes the “ikhtamnet” tactic, a sarcastic term for a Russian soldier or mercenary whose deployment abroad is denied by the Kremlin, a strategy long tested in Ukraine and now evident here. The Kremlin is testing NATO’s red lines, while its propaganda machine works to cover the tracks of a creeping war.

September 22, 2025 - Lesia Bidochko

Europe’s narrowing menu on policy towards Belarus

Since even before 2020, EU sanctions against Belarus have failed to achieve their core goals, neither crippling the economy nor forcing a change in Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s behaviour. Instead, the EU strategy has arguably backfired – tightening authoritarian control, worsening human rights conditions, and even bolstering domestic support for the regime.

September 17, 2025 - Vitali Matyshau

Consequences and complications of Russian drones in NATO airspace

Poland's decision to shoot down Russian aerial assets was unprecedented for NATO’s eastern flank. Despite the limited scale of the provocation, the operation demonstrated that NATO interoperability remains at a high level. In reaction to Russia’s actions, Poland invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty and requested urgent consultations, which took place on September 10th.

September 16, 2025 - Jakub Bornio

Russian drones in Poland, will NATO pass the test?

NATO has the opportunity to demonstrate its own strength without a direct military clash with Russia if it takes decisive steps after this provocation. Otherwise, new attempts by the Russian side to penetrate the Alliance’s airspace will be even more large-scale and provocative.

September 11, 2025 - Anton Naychuk

From Verdun to the 21st century

The European Union has the financial resources to defend itself. But it lacks the political will to do so. This political will needs to be asserted and require important decisions to be made now.

September 8, 2025 - Jean-Yves Leconte

Scenarios for the end of the war

Ongoing talk about a potential peace deal in Ukraine must now encourage discussion regarding its specifics. Kyiv, and with it all of Europe, is currently faced with a range of positive and negative scenarios, with cooperation from western allies needed to ensure the best outcome possible.

September 1, 2025 - Andrii Dligach Valerii Pekar

Who is leading and lagging on democracy and reforms in the EU’s Eastern Partnership?

The 2025 Eastern Partnership Index tracks the democratic transformation and European integration in the countries that participated in the initiative.

July 16, 2025 - Kerry Longhurst

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