Hot Topics

Despite another win for Law and Justice, the three voting blocks of the democratic opposition are most likely to form a coalition government led by Donald Tusk.

The past week marked the worst period for Nagorno-Karabakh, bringing a tragic end to the 30 years of existence of the breakaway state that proclaimed independence in 1991. While not recognised by any other country, Nagorno-Karabakh was backed by Armenia until the government under Nikol Pashinyan recognised it as a part of Azerbaijan after the 2020 war, paving the way for Baku to proceed with its coercive policy of “integration”.

Azerbaijan refers to the 24-hour blitzkrieg as a triumph, which was done quickly and professionally. Having already become crippled and dysfunctional after the 2020 war, the “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic”, which had lost land connection with its long-term patron, Armenia, realised that it had no chance to resist the Azerbaijani advancement and accepted all of Baku’s conditions of surrender.

By accepting and legitimising a deal resulting in net gains for Russia, western countries would not only fail to respect Ukraine’s political sovereignty and territorial integrity, but they would also contradict their own obligations under international law to not legitimise aggression against another state.

As the Western Balkans mark two decades since the 2003 Thessaloniki Summit, an atmosphere of reflection, rather than celebration, envelops the region. Amidst the initial hopes ignited by the summit's commitment to EU enlargement, the journey towards integration has been mired in complexities and frustrations. A deeper exploration into the underlying causes reveals a surprising factor at the heart of the delay – the state of public administration, an often-overlooked linchpin in the ambitious pursuit of EU integration.

In 2003, the historic Thessaloniki Summit marked a pivotal moment for Europe and its enduring commitment to enlargement and unity. At the heart of this gathering in the timeless Greek city was the visionary idea to bring the Western Balkans into the European family. The summit not only reaffirmed the EU's dedication to the enlargement process but also set into motion the integration pathways for countries emerging from a tumultuous past.

As September 2023 was approaching, the focus of western diplomacy once again gravitated toward the ongoing Kosovo-Serbia conflict, which appears to have no end in sight. Amid mounting tensions and the uncertain trajectory of the EU’s “Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue,” a comprehensive reassessment of mediation efforts becomes imperative to bring a definitive resolution to this enduring conflict.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine stressed the importance of engaging the Western Balkans more closely. The strategy behind the West’s renewed interest was twofold: bring Kosovo and Serbia closer to a deal to normalise relations and simultaneously move Serbia away from the Russian orbit. Despite initial enthusiasm in early 2023, relations quickly soured once again. What will it take to overcome this impasse?

The Kosovo-Serbia dialogue which has been facilitated by the European Union since 2011 has faced challenges in normalising relations between the two countries. However, Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine injected a sense of urgency and provided a renewed impetus to address the dialogue. This led to a new diplomatic offensive that culminated in the finalisation of the second Brussels Agreement and its Implementation Annex in February and March 2023, respectively.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has not significantly changed Belgrade’s foreign policy. Although Serbia is an EU candidate country, it has continued to exploit its ties with China and Russia to increase its bargaining position vis-à-vis the West and raise additional funds for development projects. Despite this ambivalent foreign policy, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić is still considered by many politicians in the EU and NATO as a very important partner in keeping stability in the region.

It seemed that a strong and unified western reaction to the Russian aggression against Ukraine would prevent Serbia from continuing its policy of balancing between East and West. Belgrade, aspiring (at least declaratively) to membership in the European Union, would subsequently be forced to decrease its cooperation with Russia. Yet Serbia’s leadership has been able to avoid introducing sanctions against Russia and keep its good relations with Moscow, while at the same time fostering an image among western politicians as a guarantor of stability in the region.

Russia’s influence in the Western Balkans is traditionally based on its soft power, the energy sector and its diplomatic support for Serbia’s position on Kosovo. The religious, cultural and historic relationship of Moscow with the Orthodox population in the region has been taken as a reason for Russia’s attractiveness. However, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its consequences, the strength of Russian influence in the region is being questioned.

It is commonly said that the Russian aggression against Ukraine has further exposed the fault lines between Moscow and the West in the Western Balkans and that Russia’s aggressive posture in the region is only set to grow as a consequence of the war. Is this concern legitimate or is the Kremlin’s influence in the Western Balkans going to diminish as a consequence of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine?

The continued power of nationalist ideas and narratives in Bosnia and Herzegovina has all but destroyed any social or political cohesion. Ethnic divisions have hindered the establishment of a unified political system and resulted in permanent political deadlock. Nationalist rhetoric continues to fuel political conflicts, further deepening resentments and prejudices.

More than three decades after the start of the Bosnian War, nationalists are once again threatening instability in the Western Balkans. Milorad Dodik, the pro-Russian Bosnian Serb strongman, recently stated that “We are considering in the most serious terms to bring a decision to declare independence and secede Republika Srpska, unless the property issue is solved.” Two decades of undermining state institutions, malign foreign influence and western appeasement have brought Bosnia and Herzegovina to its most serious crisis since the end of the war three decades ago.

For a whole week, large parts of Slovenia, mainly Carinthia (Koroška) and Styria (Štajerska) as well as the Gorenjska region, were (and partly still are) under water. The flood has already been hailed as the worst natural disaster in the country's history. Today's heroes are the firefighters, paramedics and police officers who have been working non-stop in the past week doing their best to save the lives of those threatened by the raging disaster.