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Author: Andreas Umland

Towards a new world disorder?

The post–Second World War international order appears to be nearing its end. It is increasingly being replaced by a system that openly presents itself as non-liberal, if not outrightly anti-liberal. Should this emerging (dis)order remain nominally rules-based, its rules will differ fundamentally from those established after 1945. They may simply reflect the shifting whims of powerful leaders rather than stable and broadly accepted norms of conduct.

February 23, 2026 - Andreas Umland

Russia’s war is undermining the world order

Since 2014, Moscow has been transforming global affairs in the interests of international revisionism. This has already caused considerable damage to international law and the global rules-based order. In fact, the political implications of Russia’s attack reach far beyond Ukraine and Eastern Europe.

Going into its 11th year of war against Ukraine, the results of Russia’s attack on its alleged “brother nation” are ambiguous for the Kremlin. On the one hand, its image as a supposed military superpower has suffered greatly. Since 2022 the war has become an international embarrassment for the Russian leadership, army and weapons industry. Moscow’s campaign in Ukraine also led to the loss of western partners, markets and investors.

May 6, 2025 - Andreas Umland

How Moscow and its allies are undermining the non-proliferation regime

The Russo-Ukrainian War’s global repercussions increasingly subvert the foundations of the international nuclear order.

January 23, 2025 - Andreas Umland

How Ukraine’s Kursk operation challenges non-western countries to come out

Beijing and other non-western capitals’ calls for a ceasefire and negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv have, after the Ukrainian occupation of Russian lands, acquired new meaning. A Chinese or other non-western push for a Russo-Ukrainian accommodation could lead now to meaningful peace talks.

November 25, 2024 - Andreas Umland

A major turn in Russia’s war against Ukraine?

The deep Ukrainian offensive into Russia's Kursk Oblast is becoming a watershed and opening a new page in Europe's largest military conflict since 1945.

September 17, 2024 - Andreas Umland

Could an Istanbul deal have brought peace?

The experience of the post-Soviet republics regarding security-related agreements with Moscow is such that the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian talks had little chance of success.

August 5, 2024 - Andreas Umland

Six obstacles for a negotiated settlement between Kyiv and Moscow

Recent months have seen an increase in discussions concerning possible negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Despite this, many deep-rooted issues will likely make any discussions futile in the current circumstances. The West must subsequently help Kyiv gain the greatest leverage possible on the battlefield for any kind of negotiated resolution in the future.

March 14, 2024 - Andreas Umland

The global costs of a Russian-Ukrainian truce

By accepting and legitimising a deal resulting in net gains for Russia, western countries would not only fail to respect Ukraine’s political sovereignty and territorial integrity, but they would also contradict their own obligations under international law to not legitimise aggression against another state.

September 27, 2023 - Andreas Umland

Three strategies of western support for Ukraine: intensification, modification and innovation

The geopolitical salience of the Russia–Ukraine War and the remoteness of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union or NATO call for intensification and modification of, and innovation in, current western approaches.

February 3, 2023 - Andreas Umland

Why the West is still not yet helping Ukraine as much as possible

Many Western European public debates about help for Ukraine juxtapose feelings of solidarity for Ukrainians with concerns about the security of the West. This dualism ignores the core national interests of EU and NATO member countries regarding a Russian defeat and the development of a safe, stable and resilient Ukraine.

October 10, 2022 - Andreas Umland

Russia’s “demilitarisation” plan Ukraine: why Ukrainians will not disarm

A central element of Moscow’s justification for its “special military operation” is its desire to “demilitarise” Ukraine. Whilst this appears to be one of the Kremlin’s relatively less elusive goals, it is just as unattainable as the other aims.

June 20, 2022 - Andreas Umland

German Ostpolitik in the shadow of Russia’s imperial revenge

The strange tragedy of Angela Merkel's Ostpolitik in 2005-2021 was that the highly intelligent and committed chancellor showed herself incapable of departing from the wrong track in Germany’s Russia policy that Berlin had already taken before she took office. It is symptomatic that none of the early German mistakes vis-à-vis Moscow was directly related to Ukraine, yet the conflict surrounding Ukraine since 2014 has been marking the fiasco of Germany's Ostpolitik in the new century.

Berlin made a momentous blunder long before Angela Merkel came to power and early in the succession of Vladimir Putin's reigns of, so far, two premierships and four presidencies. In September 2001, the Federal Republic’s government invited Russia's newly minted second president, Vladimir Putin, to address the assembled Bundestag. No other Russian head of government or state has ever received such an honour.

February 15, 2022 - Andreas Umland

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