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Author: Andreas Umland

A major turn in Russia’s war against Ukraine?

The deep Ukrainian offensive into Russia's Kursk Oblast is becoming a watershed and opening a new page in Europe's largest military conflict since 1945.

September 17, 2024 - Andreas Umland

Could an Istanbul deal have brought peace?

The experience of the post-Soviet republics regarding security-related agreements with Moscow is such that the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian talks had little chance of success.

August 5, 2024 - Andreas Umland

Six obstacles for a negotiated settlement between Kyiv and Moscow

Recent months have seen an increase in discussions concerning possible negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Despite this, many deep-rooted issues will likely make any discussions futile in the current circumstances. The West must subsequently help Kyiv gain the greatest leverage possible on the battlefield for any kind of negotiated resolution in the future.

March 14, 2024 - Andreas Umland

The global costs of a Russian-Ukrainian truce

By accepting and legitimising a deal resulting in net gains for Russia, western countries would not only fail to respect Ukraine’s political sovereignty and territorial integrity, but they would also contradict their own obligations under international law to not legitimise aggression against another state.

September 27, 2023 - Andreas Umland

Three strategies of western support for Ukraine: intensification, modification and innovation

The geopolitical salience of the Russia–Ukraine War and the remoteness of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union or NATO call for intensification and modification of, and innovation in, current western approaches.

February 3, 2023 - Andreas Umland

Why the West is still not yet helping Ukraine as much as possible

Many Western European public debates about help for Ukraine juxtapose feelings of solidarity for Ukrainians with concerns about the security of the West. This dualism ignores the core national interests of EU and NATO member countries regarding a Russian defeat and the development of a safe, stable and resilient Ukraine.

October 10, 2022 - Andreas Umland

Russia’s “demilitarisation” plan Ukraine: why Ukrainians will not disarm

A central element of Moscow’s justification for its “special military operation” is its desire to “demilitarise” Ukraine. Whilst this appears to be one of the Kremlin’s relatively less elusive goals, it is just as unattainable as the other aims.

June 20, 2022 - Andreas Umland

German Ostpolitik in the shadow of Russia’s imperial revenge

The strange tragedy of Angela Merkel's Ostpolitik in 2005-2021 was that the highly intelligent and committed chancellor showed herself incapable of departing from the wrong track in Germany’s Russia policy that Berlin had already taken before she took office. It is symptomatic that none of the early German mistakes vis-à-vis Moscow was directly related to Ukraine, yet the conflict surrounding Ukraine since 2014 has been marking the fiasco of Germany's Ostpolitik in the new century.

Berlin made a momentous blunder long before Angela Merkel came to power and early in the succession of Vladimir Putin's reigns of, so far, two premierships and four presidencies. In September 2001, the Federal Republic’s government invited Russia's newly minted second president, Vladimir Putin, to address the assembled Bundestag. No other Russian head of government or state has ever received such an honour.

February 15, 2022 - Andreas Umland

How to approach Navalny’s rise?

While Navalny is for many Europeans not an ideal alternative to Putin, he has become a significant figure with regards to Europe’s political future. Navalny’s rise over the last few months has severely disrupted Putin’s system of rule. This suggests that the re-emergence of genuine political pluralism in Russia may now be possible.

March 17, 2021 - Andreas Umland

Donetsk’s “Isolation” torture prison

The Russian-controlled east Ukrainian separatists have been operating a small concentration camp in the city of Donetsk, Ukraine for more than six years now. Outside any regular jurisdiction, men and women are being physically and psychologically tormented on a daily basis, in ways reminiscent of Europe’s darkest times.

January 5, 2021 - Andreas Umland Stanislav Aseyev

What happens to Belarus after Lukashenka falls?

The current Belarusian transformation looks as if it could be having results similar to those of the 2018 Velvet Revolution in Armenia rather than of the 2013-2014 Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine. Yet, the pathological relationship of Moscow’s imperialism towards Russia’s Eastern Slavic “brotherly nations” can mean that Belarus’s future may, in the end, become more similar to Ukraine’s rather than Armenia’s present.

Ukraine and Belarus are two of the culturally and geographically closest nations of Europe. Their Eastern Slavic languages, major Christian-Orthodox churches and peculiar locations between Russia, on the one side, and the European Union (as well as NATO), on the other, are comparable and intertwined. Both are, on one level, very close to the also largely Orthodox and Eastern Slavic Russians.

November 16, 2020 - Andreas Umland

Should Ukraine conduct local elections along the Donbas contact line?

Current military-civil administration in eastern Ukrainian frontline districts need to be kept in place and partially reformed. Should the Donets Basin return to Ukrainian control, they could provide institutional templates for a temporary special regime within the currently occupied territories.

September 9, 2020 - Andreas Umland

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