While China may be growing into an economic, military and technological giant, the experience of Central and Eastern Europe indicates that this “hegemon in the making” is much more vulnerable and isolated than it likes to believe. At the same time, wishing China away is impossible. Ignoring the fact that it is already a stakeholder in the complex European landscape comes with great risk.

On the pleasant sunny morning of June 14th 2023, pedestrians crossing the iconic Charles Bridge in Prague found themselves navigating through multiple meticulously-staged Chinese couples. These groups were taking their pre-wedding photos against the scenic skyline of the city. Locals have probably become accustomed to this sight. Ever since the Taiwanese singer Jolin Tsai released her Mandopop hit “Prague Square”, hundreds of thousands of Chinese tourists have been flocking to the city to enjoy its romance.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative is no longer seen as attractive today as it was ten years ago. However, some key differences in approaches to China are emerging throughout Europe. This is evident when analysing German engagement towards China, versus that of Southeast Europe.

It has been ten years since the inauguration of China’s flagship foreign economic policy – the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Chinese President Xi Jinping has labelled the BRI as the “project of the century.” Many of the more than 140 participating countries have ample reason to take stock of the benefits and drawbacks of their cooperation with, and integration into, this geopolitical and geo-economic project.

Debate has grown regarding Beijing’s relations with Russia and its war against Ukraine. While China has offered support to Moscow, it is important to remember that the rising power has other wider interests. Overall, it seems that China will always put its own interests first with regards to the ongoing conflict.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves throughout the international community, raising concerns about regional stability, human rights violations and global security. As the world grapples with finding solutions to the invasion, the role of key actors like China has come under scrutiny. Exploring China's strategic interests, economic ties, role in the balance of power and diplomatic leverage can shed light on the complex dynamics of the invasion. It can also reveal potential paths toward resolving the war and dealing with Russia and its allies.

The latest shift in Georgia's foreign policy, marked by the signing of a strategic agreement with China, raises further concerns about the country’s trajectory towards the European Union and NATO. By engaging more with China, Tbilisi is also helping Russia fulfil its aim to decouple Georgia from the West.

In July 2023, the relationship between Georgia and China grabbed the spotlight of global attention – the two countries decided to elevate their bilateral relations to a strategic partnership and signed a subsequent agreement. Although deepening relations between sovereign states is not out of the ordinary in foreign affairs, critical questions about this particular event are looming over the horizon.

In the evolving landscape of international relations, it has become increasingly clear that the US and Europe must join forces to address China's growing influence in Eastern Europe. The recent Russian aggression against Ukraine has reshaped regional dynamics and intensified the global struggle for power and influence.

The Russian full-scale aggression against Ukraine had an evident impact on regional and global ties in Eastern Europe. While Russia was seeking opportunities to attract more allies in its war of aggression, like Iran and North Korea, its major objective internationally was to create an alliance with China. However, China sees the Russia-Ukraine war as an opportunity to change the status quo and raise the stakes to outlast the United States economically and militarily.

The subject material from which we draw lessons is often ambiguous. Were the operational failures that Russia experienced in the spring of 2022 the result of incompetence? Or were they perversely the result of Russia holding back the use of force out of the mistaken belief that conquest against cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv would be easy? Lessons can go in different directions even if we are all looking at the same thing.

While in the region Czechia can be considered a positive case in resisting authoritarian influence, it has been far from perfect, especially when considering its recent turbulence. Nevertheless, there are now a lot of practices countering malign influence – including that of China – in Czechia that could serve as examples for both the region and the wider EU.

Since February 24th 2022, the whole of Europe and the world have been witnessing a new phase in the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which has reshaped the European – and to a large extent also the global – security order. Issues such as the shelling of Ukraine’s nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, often described as “nuclear blackmail”, frightened the global community into fearing a repeat of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear catastrophe in the Soviet Union.

Central Asia has been known as a region that was for a long period of time incorporated into the Soviet Union and therefore influenced by Russia. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has undermined its reputation and presence in the region, and the emerging gap in trade and security is slowly being filled by China. How do these states manage such new shifts in geopolitics? And what trends may shape their outlook for the future?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has become a serious challenge for Central Asian states, which tend to consider Russia as their reliable partner in the security and economic spheres. However, Russian foreign policy treats Central Asia as an extension of its sphere of influence, which should be maintained by two international organisations led by Russia: the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

Some EU countries have decided on a clear position regarding China’s foreign policy aims. This could not have become more apparent when a plane filled with Czech people arrived in Taipei.

The war in Ukraine has resulted in unprecedented sanctions being placed on Russia. Now confronted by a lack of access to traditionally lucrative markets in Europe, Moscow has turned to China to offset these issues. However, such a shift is naturally full of risks.

The start of the year heralded the emergence of a comprehensive partnership between China and Russia. However, Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has increasingly made the future of this bilateral relationship unclear. Western administrations should now pay close attention to changes in various sectors if they are to profit from such uncertainty.

Turkmenistan has the potential to become an important energy source at the crossroads between Europe and Asia due to the drastic energy shift in European, Eurasian and Asian energy landscapes. Recent developments indicate Turkmenistan could change future energy flows due to the war in Ukraine, which could also help its over-reliance on China.

The ups and downs of the global hydrocarbons market strongly affect Turkmenistan, for its economy and exports are heavily dependent on natural gas. The COVID-19 pandemic battered the country, reduced energy demand and worsened domestic woes, such as reported food shortages, emigration and inflation. The economy appears to have struggled to recover from the 2014-15 drop in global energy prices, with IMF data indicating negative growth in 2016, 2019 and 2020. In seeking to recover, Ashgabat appears to be focusing on increasing its dependence on China by enlarging pipeline capacity.