The Moldovan government has recently made an effort to move closer to the European Union. This has been particularly true following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the country heads towards pivotal elections in the autumn, people across the country are trying to work out what is best for the future.

On October 20th 2024, Moldova will simultaneously hold its presidential elections and a crucial referendum on the country’s accession to the EU, a strategic confluence that was initially seen as a mobilization tactic by President Maia Sandu but now looms as a substantial risk. If the referendum fails to engage sufficient voter turnout, it could not only undermine the current government but also potentially benefit pro-Russian factions in upcoming parliamentary elections.

Poland has often been seen as a key supporter of EU and NATO enlargement. Having benefitted immensely from these processes itself, it has now backed enlargement to states like Ukraine, North Macedonia and Moldova. Despite this, there are certain peculiarities in its approach when it comes to each country.

The return of former British Prime Minister David Cameron to frontline politics has surprised observers at home and abroad. Taking up the position of foreign minister, the veteran politician will now oversee the country’s ongoing support for Ukraine. Such a role will undoubtedly be overshadowed by his failure to deter Russian aggression in 2014.

The beginning of Moldova’s official accession negotiations with the EU will mark a pivotal moment in the country’s history. Despite this, full membership is still not an inevitability. Brussels must subsequently help Moldova to reform key areas of its society throughout the process.

For most of the last 30 years, the process of European integration has been seen as an irreversible one, with the creation of a strong justice system through reforms and the guarantee of the rule of law being one of the key endpoints. The assertion that "the process of European integration is irreversible" has long been present in the public space and has been taken over by the pro-European government in Chisinau. However, recent experiences of some European countries prove otherwise and demonstrate that democracy is not guaranteed, even in the European Union.

In the semi-autonomous Moldovan region of Gagauzia, young people seem to be at a crossroads, grappling with issues of identity. The direction the region will take depends on finding a balance between preserving independence, heritage and tradition and embracing opportunities for growth and cooperation at both regional and international levels.

Gagauzia, a little-known semi-autonomous region covering 1,848 square kilometres in Moldova's south, comprises a cluster of cities, towns and villages amongst mainly rural and agricultural landscapes. This unique region is predominantly inhabited by an ethnic Turkic group whose origins remain somewhat enigmatic. Presently, facing significantly worse economic conditions than Moldova's capital (Chișinău) and limited opportunities, young Gagauzians find themselves torn between preserving their community and embracing a more European-aligned lifestyle and outlook.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has forced many refugees to make tough decisions about their future. This is particularly true in neighbouring Moldova, where many Ukrainians are deciding to settle on a more long-term basis. Despite the difficulties of this new life, a large number of refugees are trying to make the best of the situation.

Olena Mustiats, 41, had only the most basic requirements when she fled Ukraine with her six-year-old daughter last March: safety, affordability and a local language she knew. Leaving from her native Odesa, in Ukraine’s southwest, Mustiats settled on Moldova and headed to the capital, Chișinău. “I chose Moldova because it’s closer [to Odesa] than Poland, they speak Russian there, and because prices at the supermarket are cheaper than in Poland,” Mustiats said. A year and a half later, Mustiats and her child are still in Moldova, with no plans, and limited options, to go anywhere else.

The economic and political situation in Moldova, the small country to Ukraine’s southwest, remains tenable at best. While the country’s President Maia Sandu has shown resolve and used the situation to pursue the European path, not all Moldovans support her politics – especially those directly affected by the economic and energy crisis.

On a bright Sunday afternoon this past October, protesters marched, not for the first time, down the main boulevard in Moldova’s capital city, Chișinău. Others milled around on the pavement, holding up picket signs and joining in as the marchers shouted slogans like “Resign!” and “Down with Maia Sandu!”, referring to Moldova’s president. Another sign pleaded for help, in a tone that could be taken as ironic or else completely sincere: “God save us from the idiots of the PAS,” it read. PAS is the acronym of the Party of Action and Solidarity, Moldova’s ruling party.

Russia’s war against Ukraine proved to the world that battles do not happen only on the ground; they are also taking place online. After Russia’s invasion on February 24th, its neighbours, including Moldova, began facing many challenges: an economic crisis, a refugee influx, an energy crisis and even cyber-attacks.

The date of February 24th 2022 completely changed the life of the whole world, and definitely changed Moldova. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is spreading to this neighbouring country, even though direct attacks are not yet happening. The war in Ukraine has affected all processes in Moldova, especially in the economic sphere, and includes: increased inflation, disruption of all supply chains, the energy crisis, disinformation, propaganda, instability in society and above all, challenges to cybersecurity.

With the start of Russia’s unprovoked military invasion of Ukraine, one of the main problems on the mind of every European became the insecurity and instability around energy supply. In a race to diversify their sources of supply, countries who are dependent on Russian energy began to explore options that had been previously avoided. As European countries struggle to cut ties with their unstable Eastern partner, Romania is increasingly seen as a future European energy hub.

Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine in 2022 triggered a reshaping of the entire security architecture in the Black Sea region and the whole of Europe. How does the expert community perceive the changes to regional security? What are the lessons learned for the international and regional actors? What could be done to restore and maintain security in the Black Sea region?