Belarus between a difficult yesterday and an uncertain tomorrow
Building upon the ongoing analysis of the research group “BELARUS-UKRAINE-REGION”, which was established at the Centre for East European Studies at the University of Warsaw in autumn 2020, and in cooperation with New Eastern Europe, we present a series of sketches depicting the situation in Belarus during the latter half of 2023.
February 7, 2024 -
Henryk Litwin
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Issue 1-2 2024Magazine
The region of Eastern Europe has become a stage for dramatic events since the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which predominantly captured the attention of experts. The future of Eastern Europe primarily depends on the resolution of the war in Ukraine, which was caused by Russia’s imperial ambitions. Nevertheless, Belarus remains a second key element in the region’s geopolitical puzzle. Depending on the scenario that develops, the events in this country can either undermine any positive outcomes for European security resulting from a much hoped-for Ukrainian victory, or through a different evolution, mitigate the negative consequences of the still real threat of imposing a “dirty” peace on Ukraine. The situation in Belarus is evolving and is closely tied to developments in Ukraine. However, it also exhibits its own internal dynamics.
The ongoing reduction of Belarusian sovereignty and the potential disappearance of its last remnants are particularly clear. The hope in past European policies towards the Alyaksandr Lukashenka regime was that striving to stabilize an authoritarian power in Belarus, but one separate from Moscow, would indirectly maintain the effect of an independent state and preserve the habit of sovereignty. Despite this, the last three years have shown an increasing dependence on Russia, diminishing sovereignty and Belarus finding itself in a situation increasingly referred to as “hybrid occupation”.
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2024 parliamentary elections, belarus, Belarusian elections
