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Belarus: new elections to preserve a tired dictatorship

On February 25th 2024, Belarus will hold its first elections since August 2020, which resulted in mass protests for several months. How are the Belarusian authorities preparing for this event and what will be the likely outcome?

In the years that followed the controversial 2020 election – a resounding Lukashenka “victory” of over 80 per cent which bore little relation to the popular support for the challenger Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya – the ruling regime has undergone several serious trials to which it has responded ever more harshly. Its recent measures have included the elimination of the opposition’s media sites, the shutdown of hundreds of civil society organisations and the dissolution of all opposition and several official political parties.

February 7, 2024 - David Marples Katsiaryna Lozka - Hot TopicsIssue 1-2 2024Magazine

Illustration by Andrzej Zaręba

During the post-election period, the regime of Alyaksandr Lukashenka has systematically resorted to violent tactics and even transnational repressions to maintain its grip on power. These actions range from the halting of issuing passports abroad and the confiscation of the property of Belarusian activists in exile, to the interrogation and detention of the relatives of Belarusians living abroad. Internally, mass repressions continue, with a daily average of at least 17 detentions in the country. Authoritarian rule is further bolstered by economic and political support from Russia, guaranteeing the immediate survival of Lukashenka but drawing him ever closer to Moscow.

Towards the Russia-Belarus Union

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