EU cooperation with Warsaw must strengthen as Russia’s systemic threat becomes clear.

Georgia is currently experiencing one of the most significant waves of protests in its recent history. The intensity of the protests, the high stakes involved and the repression by the authorities evoke comparisons to the 2020 protests in Belarus. However, how similar are these protests, and what can be said about the responses from the Georgian authorities, the European Union and other international actors?

The recent protests in Georgia have seen widespread mobilization across the country, with demonstrators employing various tactics to express their discontent with the government's decision to suspend accession talks with the European Union. In Tbilisi, the capital, tens of thousands of protesters have gathered for consecutive nights, waving Georgian and EU flags while chanting slogans like "Russian slaves" at law enforcement officers.

In the months leading up to the 2020 elections, Alyaksandr Lukashenka's remark that the “constitution is not written for women” sparked significant public outcry. Operating within a deeply patriarchal paradigm, he rarely shies away from such sexist comments. Yet, he continuously underestimates the role of women and their potential in politics, as seen in recent Belarusian history.

Since 1994 Alyaksandr Lukashenka has held an unyielding grip on Belarus, often referring to himself as a “women's president”. This characterization is not without purpose; he strategically appeals to specific demographics within the electorate, many of whom find themselves in vulnerable positions reliant on state social support – predominantly women. One might wonder why he still seeks voter loyalty when elections are routinely manipulated and international observers repeatedly report ballot stuffing and significant violations in vote counting. The reality is that genuine support from even a fraction of the electorate simplifies his task. It allows for less money and administrative resources to be spent on falsification and for mitigating the impacts of dishonest elections. The mass protests of 2020 arose precisely because the scale and transparency of the fraud were too blatant to ignore.

Belarus is well known for its autocratic style of rule. This concept of governance has its roots in the Soviet system, which Minsk borrows heavily from in everyday administration. This approach interestingly extends to the country’s economy, which remains dominated by industry that is owned by the authoritarian state.

In addition to being bought and paid for by the Kremlin, the embattled Belarusian dictator is becoming dangerously beholden to China. An opportunity now exists for India to actively distance itself from Minsk.

The upcoming presidential election in Belarus will help give an indication as to the strength of Lukashenka’s grip on the country. While it is clear who will come out on top in the rigged vote, a level of dissent could once again be expressed by an opposition brought to life by the last race five years ago.

The BRICS summit in Kazan could have paved the way for the future accession of new members. Belarus would like to join as it views membership as a chance to break free from its international isolation. Brazil could be the one blocking the organization's expansion as it is becoming increasingly worried about the growing Chinese influence.

Since 2020 Belarusians have fled en masse from growing repressions inside the country. Civil society and independent culture are now only possible in exile. The stories of Belarusian artists and cultural activists illustrate the resilience and creativity of a community determined to preserve its identity and proceed aspiration for freedom.

Belarusian artists and cultural figures have found themselves increasingly targeted by a regime that views independent thought and creativity as threats to its control in recent years. As a result, the cultural sphere in Belarus has become one of the battlegrounds for the suppression of dissent. The government’s efforts to control and politicize culture have led to censorship, forced closures of cultural institutions, and the persecution of artists who challenge or fail to align with the state's ideological narratives. Yet despite these obstacles, Belarusian culture continues to evolve, with artists voicing their messages at the international level; integrating into a new environment; forming new communities and connections; and spreading the culture.

In Belarus, discrimination in the cultural sector has been shown to be both institutional and systemic, with the Belarusian PEN Club reporting that cultural life is the area where civil liberties are regressing most rapidly. At least 105 cultural figures have now been imprisoned in Belarus for their commitment to democratic ideals and freedom.

In Belarus, protest movements have always drawn strength from some societal undercurrents that may not be immediately visible to all people. This latent power resembles similar movements in other parts of Europe and the post-Soviet states. Historically speaking, despite the constraints of the Iron Curtain, the societies living in the socialist states were never completely isolated from global developments, including the protest culture of the 1960s. Thus, throughout the history of protest actions, we have witnessed such significant events as the 1965 demonstrations at the Red Square; the Sinyavsky-Daniel trial of 1966; the Prague Spring in 1968; the Solidarity movement in Poland; and the Autumn of Nations in 1989-1990 across Central and Eastern Europe.

Most participants of the 2020 protests have already graduated, but the pressure on Belarusian education has not ceased. With the authorities still focused on students, avoiding the institutionalized propaganda is becoming ever more difficult.

On September 17th, Belarus celebrated its fourth annual “Day of National Unity”, a public holiday established by Alyaksandr Lukashenka's decree in 2021. This date, marking the Soviet invasion of Poland in 1939, continues to be a focal point for the regime's endeavours to revise history. Its anti-Polish rhetoric further strains relations with its western neighbour and alienates Belarus's Polish minority.

The 2020 protests in Belarus have given birth to a veritable ecosystem of institutions and NGOs within the country’s democratic forces in exile. This is particularly clear regarding the diaspora in the EU, with many members now planning further and permanent cooperation with the bloc well into the future.