In anticipation of a new world

Ukraine’s relations with a democratic Belarus should be seen as something that will determine the future of Eastern Europe. Photo: Julia Kireychik / Shutterstock

S: Not to irritate Lukashenka once again

It is thus not surprising that in 2021 also for Ukraine the most important issues regarding Belarus were the further development of relations with the regime of Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the status of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and her office. Throughout 2021 the authorities in Kyiv had maintained some ambivalence with regards to both. Thus, despite not recognising Lukashenka as president, the Ukrainian government refused to limit economic cooperation with his regime and did not join all of the European Union’s sanctions against Belarus as they could “harm Ukrainian-Belarusian economic relations”.

In a similar vein Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the Belarusian opposition, was never invited to Ukraine, neither by the cabinet of ministers nor the office of the president (although invitations were sent by the Ukrainian parliament). Not a single meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Tsikhanouskaya has ever taken place. Until the end of 2021, this behaviour by the Ukrainian authorities towards Minsk was explained as Kyiv’s desire to maintain Belarusian-Ukrainian economic cooperation, which required not irritating Lukashenka.

            These various issues were the main topics of inquiry for the Ukrainian members of our analytical group. We were trying to determine the economic importance of Belarus for Ukraine, looking for opportunities to build dialogue between Ukraine and the Belarusian democratic society. At the same time, we recognised the unwillingness of the Ukrainian authorities to aggravate relations with the Lukashenka regime.

The real turning point in our understanding of the situation came on November 30th 2021. On that day, Lukashenka recognised the annexed Crimea as legally Russian. To us it was a clear indication that the red line in Ukrainian-Belarusian relations had been crossed and that from now on relations with the Belarusian dictator would not be accepted by Ukrainian society. In the context of growing military tensions, caused by the accumulation of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border (including also in Belarusian territory), such a “burning of bridges” by Lukashenka looked ominous.

Today, knowing what happened on February 24th 2022 and later on, we can say that by November 2021, the decision to invade Ukraine had already been made in Moscow by then. Thus, Lukashenka, by recognising the annexed Crimea as Russian, speaking sharply against the Ukrainian authorities and later refusing to sell electricity to Ukraine, played the role that was assigned to him by the Kremlin. Lukashenka’s destructive behaviour towards Ukraine at that time should have obviously raised additional questions among the Ukrainian authorities and society.

The curse of war

On February 24th 2022, all of the above issues became irrelevant. The entry of Russian troops into Ukraine from the territory of Belarus changed everything completely and likely for a very long time. It is also what will predetermine the nature of relations between Ukrainians and Belarusians for generations to come. Evidently, the nature of these relations will, in one way or another, be marked by the curse of the current war.

The reaction of the analytical group “BELARUS-UKRAINE-REGION” to this new stage of Ukrainian-Belarusian relations included the publication of two texts. The first one is titled From Silence to War. It analyses the evolution of the Ukrainian government’s policy towards Belarus. The second one, titled Exiting Point Zero, is an attempt to find the ground and foundations on which Belarusian-Ukrainian relations can be built in the future. The second of the two articles gained a significant amount of attention as it was republished by one of the most popular Ukrainian foreign policy websites, Evropeyska Pravda (Європейська правда).  

There is no doubt that the further development of Belarusian-Ukrainian relations, although it is difficult to predict during the still very active phase of the war, is one of the key issues for the future of the entire region of Eastern Europe. Based on numerous testimonies, it is now known that in the first hours of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many western heads of state were certain that Kyiv would fall rapidly, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had been offered an escape would indeed do just that. The majority of foreign diplomats stationed in Ukraine quickly left the country, with the notable exception of the Polish ambassador and a few others. This fact suggests that at the moment of the outbreak of the war, the western world was mentally prepared for Ukraine to return to Russia’s sphere of influence, a place where Belarus currently resides.

That is why it can now be argued that the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to the Russian invasion has not only altered Russia’s plans. It has also changed the scenario on which many western leaders internally agreed. In other words, the war in Ukraine has created a new geopolitical reality in Europe. A reality for which neither the East nor the West had been prepared.

A huge responsibility  

Regardless of how the situation develops further, this new reality has changed Europe and the world for a long time to come. Evidently, there is no return to the status quo before February 24th. For those of us who work in the world of academia, science or journalism, this entails a huge responsibility. There is no doubt that the future is also in our hands. Unlike before, we cannot only aim at predicting it but also attempt to shape it.  

Further relations between Belarus and Ukraine, as well as the place of these two countries in the region and on the world stage, is thus one of the most important topics we should focus on now. As it has been already said, in late February and early March 2022 the Ukrainian people created a new geopolitical reality, for Europe and the world at large. As a result, they will continue to be the co-creators of the future world order and one of its most important participants. Their moral right to this role will be determined by their own deeds, but also by the esteem towards Ukrainian courage expressed by the societies in most European countries. 

The situation of Belarusian society is completely different. The truth needs to be told that their biggest asset and hidden force is the large Belarusian diaspora spread throughout Europe (with their primary places of residence being Poland and Lithuania). Also importantly, although the 2020 protests showed us the true desires of the Belarusian people, Lukashenka, thanks to Russian support, has nonetheless managed to suppress the protests using ruthless methods.

We can thus assume that once the Russian influence in Belarus gets weaker (which could be the result of a political crisis within Russia after its defeat in Ukraine), those who are now in exile will take over power in Minsk. A truly independent, democratic Belarus thus will also further change the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe and the continent as a whole.

In such a situation, Ukraine’s relations with democratic Belarus should be seen as something that will determine the future of Eastern Europe. If this alliance is established with the aim of joint integration with the EU and NATO, its economic and political potential will be comparable to that of the Visegrad Group. A strong commitment by the two countries to regional integration will further strengthen already existing trends and could provide further influence to regional leaders such as Poland. In such a case and against the current distrust of Ukrainians towards Belarusians, which arose after the invasion of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus and could last for quite a long time, the objective geopolitical interests of Ukraine and the democratic society of Belarus would at such a stage coincide.

A new hallmark

Overall, the primary interest of both countries is the existence of each other as independent countries, outside the Russian zone of influence. For this reason, it is clear that some kind of a Belarusian-Ukrainian alliance, or maybe even a union, will eventually be established in the years to come. The level of its integration and specific foreign policy goals will depend on different external factors, which are unknown today. However, what is already known is that such an alliance will augment the political and economic influence of the Eastern European region and its position in the common future of Europe. It can now be stated with great confidence that this will be one of the hallmarks of the new geopolitical reality.

From this perspective, the task of the “Ukrainian” part of the work pursued by the analytical group “BELARUS-UKRAINE-REGION” has been to find, or even create, the fundamental prerequisites for future Belarusian-Ukrainian cooperation. We have already identified great potential for such change in the future based on the analysis of geopolitical, historical, cultural, social and economic factors. Evidently, the first challenge to overcome is the current distrust that the Ukrainians feel towards Belarusians.

Secondly, there needs to be an increase in the currently low level of knowledge among Ukrainians and Belarusians about each other. This is still a legacy of the Soviet times, when Belarusians and Ukrainians communicated with each other “through Moscow” and got to know each other not through direct contacts, but through books, films and songs that were approved by the central Soviet authorities. At the same time, the 28 years of Lukashenka’s regime in Minsk explain why the majority of Ukrainians perceive Belarus as a pro-Russian country ruled by one dictator. The Belarusian culture has been systematically suppressed by the regime and remains little known in Ukraine.

Thus, referring to the potential of the Belarusian diaspora and its presence in many countries throughout Europe, we stress the need to create a framework for future cooperation between the two countries. This can already take the form of platforms for negotiations between the Ukrainian and Belarusian democratic societies today. This goal may look very ambitious and go beyond the political analysis of the current situation, as was the case at the beginning of our group’s work. However, it reflects the spirit of the present time, which is a time of change and challenges. This era is a time of anticipation for a new world. A world whose shape also depends on our work now.

Oleksandr Shevchenko is a political scientist and works with the Centre for East European Studies of Warsaw University. He is a member of the BELARUS-UKRAINE-REGION analytical group, analyst of the Trójmorze portal, and deputy editor-in-chief of the PSZ.pl portal. Follow him on Twitter at: @oshevchenko349.

Bealrus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouksaya, Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, War