Astrakhan Oblast is an ethnically diverse federal subject of Russia located at the crossroads of Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the North Caucasus. The region’s previously marginal pro-independence movements have been gaining popularity since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What is the probability of intergroup violence in the Lower Volga area and how do members of Russia-wide opposition groups react to this challenge?

In Central and Eastern Europe, the West used to play a revolutionary role while Russia was that of a reactionary usurper. Today, the West has been hoisted by its own petard and the roles of the two powers in the region have reversed.

The West was once the defender and champion of the rights for those who suffered from unfavourable geopolitical arrangements after the Second World War. At least, it played this role in the territories where it competed with the Soviet Union and later the post-Soviet autocracies which emerged after the post-Cold War chaos of the 1990s. The West helped bring down communism in the region and its remains which were trying to survive in Russia and Serbia. It defended the rights of Kosovo’s Albanians, Muslim Bosniaks and Croats attacked by Serbs. Before that it was the main defender of the residents of the Eastern bloc, and all the nations that wanted to free themselves from Soviet rule. Today, the situation is entirely different.

Reflecting on the recent examples of para-state-building, it raises the question how possible is it to build a new entity that would survive the tumultuous winds of history. As history suggests, in order to emerge and endure para-states need to follow a well-trodden path to independence and several simple rules.

The 1980s saw the gradual erosion of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia which, in consequence, led to the disintegration of both states. As they began to burst at the seams, a wave of armed conflicts swept through these territories with different groups looking to regain control over disputed lands. Within the former Soviet republics, separatist entities began to declare independence. In the 1990s alone, ten para-states emerged in the former Soviet bloc, out of which four have survived to this day.

Over the past few weeks unprecedented progress in the negotiations between the government in Chișinău and the authorities of the breakaway-separatist region of Transnistria has unfolded. The progress has caused modest hope for a breakthrough in this 25-year-long frozen conflict and it should rather be seen as a tool in Vlad Plahotniuc's political game. The oligarch ruling over Moldova cleverly draws on a beneficial international environment and the favourability of Moscow and Tiraspol.

Interview with Igor Gretskiy, professor of international relations at St Petersburg State University. Interviewer: Iwona Reichardt.

This report is based on a visit to Kyiv, Donbas, and Vienna in late August. In Donbas, we visited Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Severodonetsk, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Mariupol, and several Ukrainian positions along the frontline. We also passed through two Donetsk Peoples’ Republic (DNR) checkpoints in Horlivka. Our account is based on our impressions, conversations and interviews along the Ukrainian-controlled areas of the frontline.

On May 11th 2016, Donetsk celebrated the second anniversary of the proclamation of the Donetsk People's Republic, which, together with the Luhansk People's Republic, has been unrecognised by the international community. The celebrations took place under the shadow of the ongoing armed conflict with Ukraine.