There is a recurring pattern among some of Russia's neighbours. Centrists look to avoid a confrontation with Moscow, while national democrats tend to blame it for their ills.

The truce was announced on November 9th and aims to end the current round of hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone which lasted for more than six weeks. This game-changing agreement, which will bring Russian peacekeepers to the break-away region, has caused protests and political upheaval in Armenia and celebrations in Azerbaijan.

The agreement to end the latest round of conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has created a Russo-Turkish situational partnership in the South Caucasus. It comes at the expense of the sovereignty of both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan were looking for other ways than diplomacy to make their voices heard in Europe during the latest conflict between the two.

The capture of the fortress city of Shusha, known as the "Jerusalem of Karabakh", became the defining moment in the six week long war.

The involvement of Turkey in this conflict with the use of Turkish-sponsored fighters from Syria and Libya transforms this local conflict into a regional one and communicates to its civilisational nature.

Outside observers often find it difficult to understand why the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has been so intractable and resisted a peaceful resolution. There is a complex combination of several complicating factors, but the ultimate culprit has been the blatant failure of diplomatic efforts, both at the level of the international community and the conflicting parties.

The recent outbreak of fighting over the small mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh has a different context than previous clashes or the war in the early 1990s. Nevertheless, regardless of whether or not the current fighting will result in a long-lasting and all-out war, the conflict is poised to remain unsolvable for the foreseeable future.

The diplomatic challenge is daunting, as Russia has little interest in anything short of strengthening its own power and position, while Turkey has already exposed itself as the primary obstacle to a cessation of hostilities.

Although the international community has called on both sides to cease fire immediately, a ceasefire is not expected. It remains unclear how it could be achieved under the current conditions.

Tofiq Yaqublu, the Azerbaijani opposition leader and prisoner of conscience, started a hunger strike demanding the reversal of his recent prison sentence. This is a desperate cry for justice in a country where everything depends on the whim of the president.

Relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union have focused more on economic, reformative and technical issues than political ones. Both sides agree upon an incremental process, which has its own advantages and seems to have prospects for the future.

Azerbaijan is a country with positive attitudes towards Europe and European culture. Since the 19th century Azerbaijani intellectuals, aristocracy and merchants developed intellectual and economic ties with the West; with first and second oil booms at the end of 19th and 20th centuries respectively, Baku became a hotspot for European political, social and economic enterprises. A 2020 survey by EU Neighbours east project identified the EU as the most trusted international institution, enjoying a 41 per cent level of trust (up 13 per cent since 2018). Forty-four per cent of Azerbaijani citizens have a positive image of the EU – an increase of 17 per cent since 2016.