While reporting from the South Caucasus has recently focused on Azerbaijan’s victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it is important to recognise the renewed importance of the Nakhchivan region. This autonomous republic is quickly becoming a key part of regional politics.

Interview with Armenian journalist Arshaluys Mghdesyan. Interviewer: Martina Napolitano

The mass exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh looks set to mark the end of three decades of fighting with Azerbaijan over the disputed territory. Nevertheless, Armenia needs real backing from the world’s democracies if it is to resist continued pressure from Baku.

The past week marked the worst period for Nagorno-Karabakh, bringing a tragic end to the 30 years of existence of the breakaway state that proclaimed independence in 1991. While not recognised by any other country, Nagorno-Karabakh was backed by Armenia until the government under Nikol Pashinyan recognised it as a part of Azerbaijan after the 2020 war, paving the way for Baku to proceed with its coercive policy of “integration”.

Azerbaijan refers to the 24-hour blitzkrieg as a triumph, which was done quickly and professionally. Having already become crippled and dysfunctional after the 2020 war, the “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic”, which had lost land connection with its long-term patron, Armenia, realised that it had no chance to resist the Azerbaijani advancement and accepted all of Baku’s conditions of surrender.

The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh still remains uncertain three years after the 2020 war. While Azerbaijan has enforced a blockade of the disputed territory, Armenia increasingly fears a renewed conflict. The international community must now act to bring both sides back to the negotiating table.

Russia’s economy continues to suffer following new western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine last year. Despite this, some regional states like Armenia are now acting as middlemen in attempts to bypass these new restrictions.

An interview with Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe. Interviewers: Adam Reichardt and Agnieszka Widłaszewska

Recent months have seen Azerbaijani protesters appear on the Lachin road leading to the parts of Karabakh controlled by Armenian separatists. While such actions may appear inconsequential at first glance, they are emblematic of a wider standoff that could impact regional peace.

Iran’s ongoing supply of drones for Russia’s war effort against Ukraine has made headlines around the world. However, what is not being talked about is Armenia’s involvement in this alliance. Yerevan now faces a crucial decision regarding its future as a democratic state.

While the world remains focused on the war in Ukraine, an important political game is being played in the South Caucasus. The local states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia now find themselves in rather different positions as external powers attempt to jostle for position in this fractious region.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has destabilised not only Europe but also its neighbourhood and inevitably the South Caucasus. This region already has a complicated geopolitical milieu even without any external triggers. Regardless of the outcome, the war will result in a resentful spillover effect in the three countries of the South Caucasus, as they are connected to Russia through trade, remittances and tourism. The economic sanctions, imposed by the West, have enormously affected the rouble, decreasing the remittances sent from Russia by the Azerbaijani, Armenian and Georgian diasporas. Russia is and will be isolated and this will create difficulties for the nationals of the three countries living there.

The September clashes were the most serious armed incident between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the 2020 Karabakh war. Experts are speculating whether Azerbaijan is gearing towards a bigger offensive in southern Armenia or just trying to pressure Yerevan.