The Velvet Revolution in Armenia brought not only Nikol Pashinyan to power but also hope of changing Armenia’s trajectory. However, overcoming the challenges that Armenia faces, particularly in geopolitics and foreign policy, will be critical in order to break the cycle of events that has plagued the country since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Political analysts and scientists frequently forget about their core responsibility, often preparing a simple analysis of events and extrapolating superficial conclusions. However, the actual challenge lies in an attempt to find patterns and long-lasting determinants behind power relations in everyday political dynamics. In the case of Armenia, much has already been written about the revolutionary events from last spring, which brought an end to the decades-long ruling class and a new face to the political scene – most notably Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The order of events, possible outcomes and varied predictions were produced by many from different angles of interpretation.

Nikol Pashinyan took it all. After months of struggling to serve as prime minister without parliamentary support, he finally got the majority he needed. The landslide victory provides Pashinyan a strong mandate to continue the revolutionary changes. The society has hope as well as significant expectations. However, the consequences and evaluations are now legitimate as well. There are no more excuses, so the real challenge begins. 

After Yuri Khachaturov, Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), was recalled in early November 2018 as a result of governmental changes and criminal investigations against him in his native Armenia, the top position became vacant. The aftermath has exposed on Armenia’s vulnerable position in the organisation.

A new monitoring report sheds light on the developments on a crucial policy issue in EU-Armenian relations.

Two bottles of whiskey and a small location was all Azat Adamyan had to start with. Today, the pub Bardak (Russian for “mess”) is one of a kind in the city of Stepanakert – the capital of the unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh. His success has led him to branch out into other business ventures.

At eight o'clock every evening Azat Adamyan kick starts his motorcycle – which he named Charlotte – and drives to work. The 27-year-old from Stepanakert (the capital city of the de facto state of Nagorno-Karabakh) is the founder and only employee of Bardak, the one and only pub in Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as Artsakh, is the de facto unrecognised republic located in the South Caucasus. For more than 20 years Artsakh Armenians have lived in a state of “neither war, nor peace”.

A conversation with Leyla and Arif Yunus, Azerbaijani human rights activists. Interviewer: Valentin Luntumbue.

VALENTIN LUNTUMBUE: I would like to begin by talking about the beginning of your engagement in the last hours of the Soviet Union, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the rise to power of Heydar Aliyev?

LEYLA YUNUS (LY): We are both historians and we began our work during the Soviet times. I was a member of the underground movement of national minorities against the Soviet regime and we were working with an underground newspaper, published in Moscow, called Express Khronika. The chief editor was Aleksandr Podrabinek. They had correspondents in different countries including Georgia, Armenia, Belarus and Ukraine; and we were responsible for Azerbaijan, together with Arif.

Serzh Sargsyan's ambitious plan to cling onto power seems to have failed.

Today, separatist conflicts are the main threat for stability in many countries in the post-Soviet space. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, several conflicts have broken out in the region. While many European policy-makers focus on Crimea, Abkhazia and Transnistria, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh remains mostly ignored by the western world.

Despite China's assurances that Baku-Beijing-Tbilisi relations are to be based on the principle of equilibrium, with economic gain being the sole motivation, the impression of political dominance is hard to avoid. It is estimated that the old patterns of regional rivalries will further change with China’s expansions westwards, with China becoming a regional stabiliser.

External actions of local governments are developed and regulated based on the competences vested in them by the national laws. While local authorities occasionally tend to ignore these regulations, they have to be aware of the consequences of their actions and bear in mind the circumstances abroad that should be handled with extreme caution.

The EAEU is primarily a limited customs union, which managed to harmonise the external customs tariffs, abolished the internal customs borders, and transferred the decision-making about the tariffs to the Union level. However, it is unlikely to achieve higher levels of economic integration, as there are too many disagreements between member countries.

The approaching year might be groundbreaking for Armenia’s political scene, as the country awaits president Serzh Sargsyan’s decision on what to do after his mandate ends in April 2018.