Is peace possible between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
Following the September 2023 campaign by Azerbaijan to re-establish its sovereignty over all Karabakh region, the question now turns to the chance for a stable peace in the South Caucasus. Yet, to answer this question, one needs to examine the many dimensions of the conflict, including internal and geopolitical, to identify the main obstacles to peace. Only then can a strategy for such a process be developed.
In the shadows of the war in Ukraine, another regional development, interconnected to some extent with that conflict, also has the potential to shape the future of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet sphere. This is the Armenia-Azerbaijani peace process and the changing power balance in the South Caucasus. The geopolitical players shaping Ukraine’s war and peace landscape also keep the Armenia-Azerbaijani peace process in focus. Nevertheless, there are distinctive features in both cases worth exploring.
April 11, 2024 -
Ahmad Alili
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Hot TopicsIssue 3 2024Magazine
A military parade dedicated to the victory in the war over Karabakh was held in the city of Khanкendi in November 2023. The city is now under full control of Azerbaijan.
Photo: The Presidential Press and Information Office's of Azerbaijan (CC) commons.wikimedia.org
With the active German facilitation between Armenia and Azerbaijan since this year’s Munich Security Conference, we can state that European (German) mediation is back. Since the July 2023 meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders, where the sides first discussed the opening of the Aghdam Road, also referred to as the Lachin Corridor, a long time has passed. Following EU President Charles Michel’s press remarks on July 15th 2023, about the possibility of the Aghdam Road being used for humanitarian purposes, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s remarks about him not having “neither the mandate nor the need to discuss” the Aghdam Road, the EU mediation mission became stuck. Azerbaijan considered any discussion of the issue at the United Nations Security Council in August 2023 as disrespecting the peace negotiations under the auspices of the EU. The peace process was now dead, leading to the September 2023 military campaign allowing Azerbaijan to re-establish full sovereignty over the Karabakh region. In Berlin, Armenian and Azerbaijani delegations met in a very similar manner to the meeting in Washington in May 2023, with a few changes to the delegation members, signalling that EU/German mediation is back. The bilateral negotiations format between Armenia and Azerbaijan can now quickly be adapted for an EU/German facilitation format. Thus, is peace possible in the South Caucasus? What is the future of regional security? Who are the leading players in the new realities in the region?
To understand the challenges that the European/German facilitators might face during the peace process, we must first understand the internal challenges the peace process encounters, and then explore the geopolitical conditions which can help or suppress the natural flow of events. We can identify four obstacles concerning peace and security in the South Caucasus that European and other mediation missions are now facing.
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Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, War
