The recent outbreak of fighting over the small mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh has a different context than previous clashes or the war in the early 1990s. Nevertheless, regardless of whether or not the current fighting will result in a long-lasting and all-out war, the conflict is poised to remain unsolvable for the foreseeable future.

The diplomatic challenge is daunting, as Russia has little interest in anything short of strengthening its own power and position, while Turkey has already exposed itself as the primary obstacle to a cessation of hostilities.

Although the international community has called on both sides to cease fire immediately, a ceasefire is not expected. It remains unclear how it could be achieved under the current conditions.

Tofiq Yaqublu, the Azerbaijani opposition leader and prisoner of conscience, started a hunger strike demanding the reversal of his recent prison sentence. This is a desperate cry for justice in a country where everything depends on the whim of the president.

Relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union have focused more on economic, reformative and technical issues than political ones. Both sides agree upon an incremental process, which has its own advantages and seems to have prospects for the future.

Azerbaijan is a country with positive attitudes towards Europe and European culture. Since the 19th century Azerbaijani intellectuals, aristocracy and merchants developed intellectual and economic ties with the West; with first and second oil booms at the end of 19th and 20th centuries respectively, Baku became a hotspot for European political, social and economic enterprises. A 2020 survey by EU Neighbours east project identified the EU as the most trusted international institution, enjoying a 41 per cent level of trust (up 13 per cent since 2018). Forty-four per cent of Azerbaijani citizens have a positive image of the EU – an increase of 17 per cent since 2016.

The international community quickly called on both parties to exercise restraint, in a conflict that has potential to spin out of control.

Skirmishes in the borderlands of Armenia and Azerbaijan raise fears of escalation.

In February 2020 Azerbaijan held early parliamentary elections for its National Assembly. Independent observers noted serious electoral fraud, including ballot stuffing, multiple voting and turnout manipulation. Yet the fraudulent activities around the election process were not the sole component of the Azerbaijani government’s strategy.

The early parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan took place on February 9th 2020. Through these elections, the citizens of Azerbaijan elected deputies to the one-chamber National Assembly (Milli Məclis). The official election results announced by the Central Electoral Commission showed a significant victory for the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (Yeni Azərbaycan Partiyası, YAP), whose representatives are said to have won 72 out of 125 single-member constituencies (58 per cent of all districts). Interestingly and uniquely for non-democratic post-Soviet states, YAP candidates, even though running in single-member districts, often placed second or third, and at times even last. Their poor placing was often the result of an agreement with candidates from parties who were loyal to President Ilham Aliyev, or with some formally independent candidates.

The title of the recently published piece by Anzhela Mnatsakanyan attempted to find out why Nagorno-Karabakh conflict matters. Nevertheless, throughout the text the question brought up by the author remains unanswered and the containing arguments are irrelevant, puzzled and incapable to resolve the question.

Even if leaders will manage to reach some compromise, the most difficult part will be to present the result of the final negotiation to the publics. The leaders in both Armenia and Azerbaijan have become trapped by their own rhetoric.

Rather than renewal, these moves suggest elite realignment as the resource pool shrinks.

Azerbaijan may not be on the cusp of a major reform, but developments of recent months have formed the most interesting socio-political dynamics this rather boringly-stable Caspian Republic has seen since 2003.

It is not the first time “reform” has become a buzz word in Azerbaijan. The authorities made several pledges in the past to overhaul and diversify the economy and uproot corruption – especially ahead of elections or in moments of social unrest. Yet apart from a few cosmetic changes, the system and its people remained largely intact. So when the 57-year old president recently announced a package of sweeping reforms and started replacing older officials with young technocrats, many shook their heads in disbelief, taking it as yet another empty promise aimed to pacify the public and create a façade of change.