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Tag: economics

Economic frontlines: bracing for a possible Trump return

November could see former US President Donald Trump return to the White House. His rather unpredictable approach to foreign policy could subsequently leave an even greater impact on the world than it did in his first term. This is due to various new conflicts like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with both Kyiv and Moscow preparing for Trump’s potential victory.

Over the last month, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has upended the presidential race in the United States by opening a small lead over Donald Trump in national polls. However, historical experience suggests early leads are often overturned and the upcoming presidential debates may prove decisive. With Trump still very much in the race, policymakers in Russia and Ukraine are bracing for what could be a seismic shift in US foreign policy.

September 17, 2024 - Cassia Scott-Jones

Adolescence is over. Time for updates to the Central European growth model

The 20th anniversary of the 2004 European Union enlargement should constitute an occasion not only to celebrate the numerous economic successes of the last two decades, but also to reflect on upcoming development challenges. Although growth since the accession has been pretty solid and stable, its foundations are still not robust enough, especially given the current uncertainties concerning geopolitics and geoeconomics.

Twenty years of EU membership for the Central European countries have seen great success from an economic point of view. The dynamics of GDP growth have been relatively high, with the convergence process progressing and foreign trade developing at the same time. The inflow of direct investments has also been fairly intense, while unemployment decreased to the lowest levels in Europe. In addition, the region's countries have generally managed to maintain stability in their public finances.

June 22, 2024 - Konrad Popławski

War, inflation and central banks

The people who head the central banks of Belarus, Ukraine and Russia are usually regarded both in the West and in the expert circles of their countries as the most liberal or technocratic in the economic governance structures. They are all well-read, experienced and have contacts abroad. However, the institutional reality of Belarus, Russia and even Ukraine is that all three central banks remain heavily dependent on the presidential centres.

In the many economic analyses of the countries involved in the war on the borders of the European Union, little attention is paid to the role of the central banks of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. However, a look at their functioning allows us to gain not only a better understanding of the current economic policies of Kyiv, Minsk and Moscow but also an insight into the peculiarities of these countries' economic systems.

February 7, 2024 - Kacper Wańczyk

How the coronavirus may force us into an existential crisis

The coronavirus could become a catalyst for a systemic transformation of the multipolar order, like the collapse of the Berlin Wall was to the bipolar order. It has further highlighted the limitations of binary systems based on any one-size-fits-all models. Neoliberalism teaches that humans are rational fools motivated by self-interest, but the dual-threat of coronavirus and climate change illustrates the need for a new paradigm, one in which individuals are encouraged to achieve balance between love of self and love for society.

April 21, 2020 - Epidamn Zeqo

Ukraine. Going West despite everything

In 2014 Ukraine found itself at a turning point when the government signed the political and (later) economic parts of the Association Agreement with the European Union. Six years later it has become evident that too little time has passed to fully evaluate this period, but one thing is certain: Ukraine is determined to stay on the path to the West.

In the spring of 2014, shortly after the EuroMaidan victory, I attended regular meetings of bank executives from the National Bank of Ukraine to discuss system stabilisation and reform. The smell of burned tyres lingered in the air as a constant reminder. A feeling of hope and expectation was growing within Ukrainian society. However the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas were in their active phases and the Ukrainian economy was in chaos.

April 6, 2020 - Volodymyr Kuzyo

In Between Europe #23 Visegrad and growth in Europe

This episode is a forward-looking one, which builds on our previous discussion about the economic legacy of the transition.

November 19, 2019 - Zselyke Csaky and Gergely Romsics

Promises and challenges. Internationalisation of the transition economies

Since 1989 internationalisation has profoundly influenced the former communist countries, primarily economically but also politically. The unfinished transition process has put into perspective the vast differences between the countries that emerged from the deep shadow of the Soviet Union and the enormous difficulties they had in constructing functioning political and economic structures. Three decades on, the future of the entire region is inexorably linked to the West and the ideas of open markets.

Internationalisation has been one of the critical dimensions of the economic transformation undergone by the former command economies in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union since 1989. Openness and global interactions have had profound direct effects on their growth and development, and entry into international institutions has significantly shaped both domestic policies and institutions. During the past three decades of transition, all former socialist economies have moved decisively towards market-oriented ones.

August 26, 2019 - Kiril Kossev

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