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The new dualism of Belarusian politics

In February 2024, Belarus will hold a parliamentary election, the first contest since the rigged presidential election of 2020. The democratic opposition is barred from participating and has called for a boycott. While the outcome of the election itself is pre-determined, the process is an illustration of the development of a new dualism in the Belarusian political system.

More than three years after the events which initiated a new dynamic in Belarusian political history and significantly impacted changes within the system, the first electoral campaign awaits us in February of this year. While rightfully labelled “elections without choice” by many researchers, it does not mean that they will be devoid of significance. In attempting to analyse and study the Belarusian case, we must agree that the term “Belarusian politics” itself has become dualistic. When discussing it, we often refer to two clearly different dimensions, or at the very least, two different levels.

February 7, 2024 - Maxim Rust - Hot TopicsIssue 1-2 2024Magazine

Government house of the Republic of Belarus and Lenin monument on Independence square in Minsk. Photo: Larysa Talkachova/Shutterstock

The first level is the more prevalent view within the international community, looking at Belarus from the perspective of 2020. This involves considering the politicians and the structures that emerged during the wave of protests, which mobilized a significant part of society and forced many to leave the country. This approach still dominates in western research circles. The second dimension is the functioning of politics within the country itself, within the changing system. Although these systemic changes increasingly exhibit authoritarian or even totalitarian characteristics, whether we like it or not, the second dimension is more important in terms of the real, tangible political agenda for Belarusian society within the country, as well as the social, economic and cultural agendas.

Opposition approach

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