Despite its claims to be willing to implement all the necessary reforms for EU candidacy, the Georgian government’s measures have been slow. Substantial progress has been missing in the areas where strong political will is required. While Georgia is awaiting the European Commission’s recommendation on granting it EU candidate status, much work is yet to be done.

More than a year has passed since Georgia submitted its application to obtain EU candidate status. The announcement followed a similar move by Ukraine in the wake of the Russian aggression, which led to a historic opportunity for other countries which aspired to obtain EU membership. Soon, Moldova demonstrated its interest in applying for candidacy as well.

For most of the last 30 years, the process of European integration has been seen as an irreversible one, with the creation of a strong justice system through reforms and the guarantee of the rule of law being one of the key endpoints. The assertion that "the process of European integration is irreversible" has long been present in the public space and has been taken over by the pro-European government in Chisinau. However, recent experiences of some European countries prove otherwise and demonstrate that democracy is not guaranteed, even in the European Union.

As the Western Balkans mark two decades since the 2003 Thessaloniki Summit, an atmosphere of reflection, rather than celebration, envelops the region. Amidst the initial hopes ignited by the summit's commitment to EU enlargement, the journey towards integration has been mired in complexities and frustrations. A deeper exploration into the underlying causes reveals a surprising factor at the heart of the delay – the state of public administration, an often-overlooked linchpin in the ambitious pursuit of EU integration.

In 2003, the historic Thessaloniki Summit marked a pivotal moment for Europe and its enduring commitment to enlargement and unity. At the heart of this gathering in the timeless Greek city was the visionary idea to bring the Western Balkans into the European family. The summit not only reaffirmed the EU's dedication to the enlargement process but also set into motion the integration pathways for countries emerging from a tumultuous past.

As September 2023 was approaching, the focus of western diplomacy once again gravitated toward the ongoing Kosovo-Serbia conflict, which appears to have no end in sight. Amid mounting tensions and the uncertain trajectory of the EU’s “Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue,” a comprehensive reassessment of mediation efforts becomes imperative to bring a definitive resolution to this enduring conflict.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine stressed the importance of engaging the Western Balkans more closely. The strategy behind the West’s renewed interest was twofold: bring Kosovo and Serbia closer to a deal to normalise relations and simultaneously move Serbia away from the Russian orbit. Despite initial enthusiasm in early 2023, relations quickly soured once again. What will it take to overcome this impasse?

The Kosovo-Serbia dialogue which has been facilitated by the European Union since 2011 has faced challenges in normalising relations between the two countries. However, Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine injected a sense of urgency and provided a renewed impetus to address the dialogue. This led to a new diplomatic offensive that culminated in the finalisation of the second Brussels Agreement and its Implementation Annex in February and March 2023, respectively.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has not significantly changed Belgrade’s foreign policy. Although Serbia is an EU candidate country, it has continued to exploit its ties with China and Russia to increase its bargaining position vis-à-vis the West and raise additional funds for development projects. Despite this ambivalent foreign policy, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić is still considered by many politicians in the EU and NATO as a very important partner in keeping stability in the region.

It seemed that a strong and unified western reaction to the Russian aggression against Ukraine would prevent Serbia from continuing its policy of balancing between East and West. Belgrade, aspiring (at least declaratively) to membership in the European Union, would subsequently be forced to decrease its cooperation with Russia. Yet Serbia’s leadership has been able to avoid introducing sanctions against Russia and keep its good relations with Moscow, while at the same time fostering an image among western politicians as a guarantor of stability in the region.

Following the elections in April 2022, the new Slovenian government has displayed ambitions to make the country an active regional player and an intermediary between the Western Balkan states and Central Europe. However, the geopolitics of the wider region, including Russia’s war in Ukraine, may force it to face some uncomfortable trends.

In the Balkans July and August are always the peak tourist season, with flocks of North European vacationers coming here to enjoy the beauty of the Adriatic coast and the warm Mediterranean sun. Traditionally, their preferred destination is Croatia, with its stunning Dalmatian beaches, beautiful Istria, numerous islands and national parks. Neighbouring from the north Slovenia is less popular. It is more often used as a transit country for travellers who are en route to Croatia.

In the semi-autonomous Moldovan region of Gagauzia, young people seem to be at a crossroads, grappling with issues of identity. The direction the region will take depends on finding a balance between preserving independence, heritage and tradition and embracing opportunities for growth and cooperation at both regional and international levels.

Gagauzia, a little-known semi-autonomous region covering 1,848 square kilometres in Moldova's south, comprises a cluster of cities, towns and villages amongst mainly rural and agricultural landscapes. This unique region is predominantly inhabited by an ethnic Turkic group whose origins remain somewhat enigmatic. Presently, facing significantly worse economic conditions than Moldova's capital (Chișinău) and limited opportunities, young Gagauzians find themselves torn between preserving their community and embracing a more European-aligned lifestyle and outlook.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has forced many refugees to make tough decisions about their future. This is particularly true in neighbouring Moldova, where many Ukrainians are deciding to settle on a more long-term basis. Despite the difficulties of this new life, a large number of refugees are trying to make the best of the situation.

Olena Mustiats, 41, had only the most basic requirements when she fled Ukraine with her six-year-old daughter last March: safety, affordability and a local language she knew. Leaving from her native Odesa, in Ukraine’s southwest, Mustiats settled on Moldova and headed to the capital, Chișinău. “I chose Moldova because it’s closer [to Odesa] than Poland, they speak Russian there, and because prices at the supermarket are cheaper than in Poland,” Mustiats said. A year and a half later, Mustiats and her child are still in Moldova, with no plans, and limited options, to go anywhere else.

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has become Europe’s biggest challenge of the last 70 years. Undeniably, it has pushed the EU towards change. For more than a year, the EU has been introducing unprecedented external and domestic policies: numerous sanctions packages, frozen and confiscated Russian state and private assets, measures towards strategic energy independence, joint ammunition procurement, and a reinforced fight against Kremlin-backed disinformation.

Europe’s active response to the millions of Ukrainian refugees who fled Russia’s invasion has often been viewed as a positive approach to migration policy. Despite this, the future remains uncertain for these new residents. Government decisions across the continent will now play a role in deciding not just the economic future of the EU but Ukraine itself.

Russia’s decision to launch a full-scale war in Ukraine has resulted in millions of Ukrainians fleeing the country via its western border. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of April 2023, 8,174,189 people have been recorded as refugees from Ukraine across Europe. Exactly 5,044,039 of them registered for temporary protection schemes in Europe.

An interview with Martyna Bildziukiewicz, head of the European External Action Service’s East StratCom Task Force. Interviewer: Maciej Makulski.