A gradual politicisation of the society in Belarus has been accelerated by the ongoing pandemic and the ineffective state response, which has led to a rise of solidarity and self-organisation.

President Lukashenka is facing the biggest challenge of his rule. This time the dissent started long before the elections with additional participation of the Belarusian elites and periphery.

Self-organisation, solidarity and politicisation – these are so far the three key words of the Belarusian Spring of 2020.

The surprisingly calm start to the presidential election campaign in Belarus featured the gathering of signatures in public. Within a few weeks police provocations and arrests have forced the candidates to adapt.

You are invited to participate in the next debate in the framework of the project titled “Ost/Wschód: German-Polish Debates on the East”. Following our first debate on general foreign policy towards Eastern Europe, this discussion will look specifically at the country of Belarus and how Poland and Germany view their policies towards that country.

The new epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, Belarus is seeing an unprecedented wave of civic participation amid the upcoming presidential election.

The sudden surge in infections is quickly changing life in Belarus, turning earlier calmness into tension and uncertainty.

A conversation with Petras Auštrevičius, member of the European Parliament from Lithuania. Interviewer: Adam Reichardt.

An interview with Brian Whitmore, a senior fellow and director of the Russia Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). Interviewer: Adam Reichardt

ADAM REICHARDT: I would like to start with a question on one of the main topics we are covering in this issue – which is the movement of some in the West, like French President Emmanuel Macron, and others, who are calling for more dialogue with Russia. Foreign Affairs recently published a piece by Thomas Graham titled “Let Russia be Russia”, where the author writes that the West “should give up any ambitions of expanding NATO farther into the former Soviet space.” What is your take on this? Why are so many voices calling for better relations with Russia despite the fact that Russia has made zero concessions or offered any compromises after its aggression in Ukraine or interference and disinformation campaigns in the West?

BRIAN WHITMORE: There are two ways to look at this. First is the cynical view, that Russia is using its financial network of influence in Europe and the West to push these messages. The other interpretation is that there is a certain level of naiveté in the West when it comes to Russia, and especially Vladimir Putin. Whatever the case, we have to ask ourselves some serious questions here. When we have voices saying, “We should have a dialogue with Russia” – the question is, dialogue about what?

Politically, 2019 was a very important year for Belarus. It was dominated by two trends: the authorities pursuing relations with the West and pressure by the Kremlin to deepen the integration of both states.
Growing tensions between Minsk and Moscow, as well as continued attempts to normalise relations with the West, are the main reasons we can call 2019 a ground-breaking year when it comes to the level of meetings that Belarusian officials held with western politicians. On surface they may seem like routine activities of a sovereign state, but in the case of Belarus each meeting sends a signal to the Kremlin.

The unflinching Belarusian leader is set on a course navigating his country through increasingly rough geopolitical seas. Lukashenka is hoping he can keep the East and West at arms length, while warming up to China at the same time.

In the first episode of 2020, Adam and Maciek explore the current situation in Belarus. As the country is under more pressure from the Kremlin to implement greater integration with Russia, it tries to open up to the West.