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Author: Valerii Pekar

Scenarios for the Russian Federation

The unforeseen consequence of the decisions made by Russia's power wielding elites could be the emergence of something entirely new.

December 21, 2022 - Dmytro Zolotukhin Oleg Magaletskyi Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi Valerii Pekar

Ukraine and the EU: scenarios of European integration

Many now talk about Ukraine’s potential membership of the European Union. However, there has been little discussion on how Kyiv could become a member state in a practical sense. A recent EU-funded event in the Ukrainian capital offered insight into the country’s prospects, ultimately laying out various positive, negative and middle of the road scenarios.

November 18, 2022 - Valerii Pekar

The seven levels of the war

The ongoing war in Ukraine is much more than just the fighting on the frontline. It is ultimately a war for ideals, a conflict that stretches to the theoretical limits of global politics.

October 31, 2022 - Andrii Dligach Valerii Pekar

The deconstruction of Russia and reconstruction of a “post-Russia space”: a risky but inevitable scenario

The Russian Federation is home to a large number of ethnic republics that briefly attempted to declare their sovereignty during the collapse of the Soviet Union. A similar series of crises now facing the country should encourage debate on what should be done if such areas once again push for more autonomy.

September 7, 2022 - Mychailo Wynnyckyj Valerii Pekar

What next after half a year of war?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has now entered its seventh month. Ultimately sapping both militaries of vital manpower and equipment, the conflict has effectively turned into a war of attrition. Several scenarios are now possible as the war looks set to continue into the autumn.

August 25, 2022 - Andrii Dligach Mychailo Wynnyckyj Valerii Pekar

How did the war become possible?

The problems facing war-torn Ukraine today are the product of more than unjustified Russian aggression. Indeed, they are emblematic of an international political system mired in problems. If we are to avoid such conflicts in the future, we must implement sweeping changes at both a national and global level.

June 9, 2022 - Valerii Pekar

A Marshall Plan for Ukraine

Whilst fighting continues in Donbas, governments and economists around the world are now thinking about a potential reconstruction plan for Ukraine. The scope of this project would mirror that of the post-war Marshall Plan and ultimately must take into account the peculiarities of Ukraine’s position.

June 3, 2022 - Valerii Pekar

What kind of peace agreement would make Ukraine ready for investment?

It goes without saying that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has devastated the country’s economy. Ukraine’s actions on the battlefield must lay the foundation for a sustainable peace in which the country can attract as much investment as possible.

May 12, 2022 - Andrii Dligach Mychailo Wynnyckyj Valerii Pekar

What next after two months of war?

The war in Ukraine is now entering a new phase. Whilst Russia has previously attempted to gain control over entire Ukraine and occupy the capital Kyiv, it is now focused on achieving a narrower “victory” in the Donbas. The outcome of fighting in this region will prove decisive as to the future of the war and to European security more broadly.

April 28, 2022 - Andrii Dligach Mychailo Wynnyckyj Valerii Pekar

Is it Putin who is waging “Putin’s war”?

The current Russo-Ukrainian War is frequently called "Putin's war" by western media. Is this correct? Who is actually waging this war on the ground and from the air and who apart from Putin should share the responsibility for war crimes?

April 22, 2022 - Valerii Pekar Yuliya Shtaltovna

Why has Russia already lost?

The start of the war in Ukraine saw Russian propaganda promote the idea of a quick and inevitable victory. However, the numerous long-term problems faced by the Russian state and society have ultimately doomed it to defeat in the country.

April 8, 2022 - Valerii Pekar

War scenarios following Putin’s failed ‘blitzkrieg’

Over a month into the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine we have learned that the Kremlin's plans and their implementation differs vastly. What are some of the scenarios the West should prepare for and what options are still available?

April 4, 2022 - Andrii Dligach Valerii Pekar

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