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Author: Valerii Pekar

What next after two years of war?

Ongoing issues on the front line mean that Ukraine is now increasingly facing a crossroads in the war against Russian aggression. While discussion continues regarding possible negotiations, it is clear that only the decisive defeat of Moscow will ensure a lasting peace.

February 23, 2024 - Valerii Pekar

Is there any “endgame” in the Russian-Ukrainian war?

The West needs to reimagine its strategy regarding a possible end to the war in Ukraine. At the moment, all possible strategies appear to result in more challenges. A more positive vision can only come when western governments challenge the precepts of their thinking.

October 25, 2023 - Valerii Pekar

Re-federalisation: avoiding the risk of Russia’s collapse

While western elites continue to support Ukraine, they also worry about the potential collapse of Russia following a defeat on the battlefield. In order to overcome this binary, we must discuss how to truly transform the Russian Federation into the pluralist state it is on paper. Such change would rely on the “re-federalisation” of the state first and foremost.

September 13, 2023 - Dmytro Zolotukhin Valerii Pekar

How the western political elite can move from uncertainty to certainty in the Russian war

There continues to be much debate about the prospect of a “stalemate scenario” in Ukraine. While such a situation may seemingly decrease uncertainty on a short-term basis, this does not take away Putin’s ability to cause further trouble down the road.

August 16, 2023 - Dmytro Zolotukhin Valerii Pekar

The point of no return

Wagner’s abortive rebellion in Russia shows that there can be no business as usual. In order to prepare for an uncertain future, we must now accept some hard facts about the Russian Federation and prepare for its possible collapse.

June 30, 2023 - Valerii Pekar

The blind spot of the West

The Russian invasion of Ukraine involves more than fighting on the front line. If we are to truly break free from the norms that brought about this conflict, we must interrogate long-established western perceptions concerning Russia’s reality.

June 20, 2023 - Valerii Pekar Yuliya Shtaltovna

What changed in Ukraine in 2022?

It is clear that Ukraine has undergone momentous change ever since Putin embarked on his full-scale invasion of the country last year. The realities of war appear to be encouraging the formation of a new society that is very much different from the one before February 24th 2022.

April 5, 2023 - Evgeniya Bliznyuk Valerii Pekar

How the post-war world could look like

The failures of the Russian army and the successful operations of the Ukrainian armed forces raise the question of the format of this war’s endgame. How will this new world look like?

March 10, 2023 - Valerii Pekar

Scenarios for the Russian Federation

The unforeseen consequence of the decisions made by Russia's power wielding elites could be the emergence of something entirely new.

December 21, 2022 - Dmytro Zolotukhin Oleg Magaletskyi Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi Valerii Pekar

Ukraine and the EU: scenarios of European integration

Many now talk about Ukraine’s potential membership of the European Union. However, there has been little discussion on how Kyiv could become a member state in a practical sense. A recent EU-funded event in the Ukrainian capital offered insight into the country’s prospects, ultimately laying out various positive, negative and middle of the road scenarios.

November 18, 2022 - Valerii Pekar

The seven levels of the war

The ongoing war in Ukraine is much more than just the fighting on the frontline. It is ultimately a war for ideals, a conflict that stretches to the theoretical limits of global politics.

October 31, 2022 - Andrii Dligach Valerii Pekar

The deconstruction of Russia and reconstruction of a “post-Russia space”: a risky but inevitable scenario

The Russian Federation is home to a large number of ethnic republics that briefly attempted to declare their sovereignty during the collapse of the Soviet Union. A similar series of crises now facing the country should encourage debate on what should be done if such areas once again push for more autonomy.

September 7, 2022 - Mychailo Wynnyckyj Valerii Pekar

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