The 2025 Belarusian presidential elections

President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in 2019. Photo: Shutterstock

This month, millions of Belarusians will prepare for their country’s presidential election. On the ballot will be individuals from organizations such as the Liberal Democratic Party, the Republican Party of Labour and Justice, and the Communist Party of Belarus.

But there will be a victor before a single ballot has been cast. This will be none other than the current Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka.

Since his first campaign during the 1994 Belarusian presidential election, Lukashenka has worked hard to maintain his control of the Belarusian government. He has now refused to relinquish power for over three decades. In the following elections, the Belarusian leader will work once again to undermine his political opponents.

The most recent events occurred ahead of the 2024 parliamentary election. During the buildup to the election, the Belarusian Supreme Court shut down several opposition political parties. Several organizations were banned, and Belarusian state media worked hard to positively portray political candidates who supported the Lukashenka regime. Furthermore, the political parties loyal to the Belarusian president were consolidated, meaning voters had fewer choices at the polls.

No opposition candidates were allowed in the 2024 parliamentary election. The results of the political process were deemed a sham. Exit polls showed that 73 per cent of the country had voted for candidates loyal to Lukashenka and his regime. The results meant that Lukashenka would establish a firmer grasp on the Belarusian government, politics and the citizenry.

Lukashenka is also determined to continue his rule. Ahead of the upcoming 2025 presidential election on January 26th, the Central Election Commission of Belarus recently announced that it had rejected several candidates. This meant that fewer individuals would run against Lukashenka, making it easier for the Belarusian dictator to strengthen his grip on the country.

These events have upset thousands of Belarusians. Members of the Belarusian opposition movement criticized the results of the 2024 parliamentary election, stating that the results were fabricated and only gave Lukashenka more power. The opposition has called the process undemocratic, and many Belarusians are now fearful of voicing their opinions as they are concerned for their safety.

Outside of the opposition movement, several members of the Belarusian military have unfavourable opinions of the president. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Lukashenka invited Russia to move weapons and soldiers into Belarusian territory. Over the past three years, Lukashenka permitted Russia to fire missiles from Belarus into Ukraine. In addition, the Belarusian leader allowed Moscow to transport military equipment and weapons from Belarus into Ukraine. Several people in Belarusian society have openly opposed Lukashenka’s decisions. Some members of the military have even resigned in protest against Lukashenka’s decision to support Russia’s war. Meanwhile, other members of the Belarusian military have left the country so that they can join foreign legions that are helping to defend Ukrainian territory.

Other members of the military who oppose Lukashenka have been unable to leave. For example, some members who openly protest against the Belarusian leader have been forcibly imprisoned.

Since the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, over 1,400 Belarusian political opponents (both civilian and military) have been imprisoned. These dissidents have been wrongfully detained by the Lukashenka regime and have faced beatings and torture. They were also given lengthy jail sentences as Lukashenka sees them as a threat to his rule.

The outcome of the sham 2024 parliamentary election, preceded by the stolen 2020 presidential election, has only shown signs of what is to come in Belarus. Aside from forcibly dissolving political opposition parties or wrongfully imprisoning political opponents, Lukashenka has threatened Belarusian citizens with the death penalty and other forms of punishment for speaking out against him and his administration. The Belarusian government has also increased its surveillance throughout the country. Belarusian police have been known to patrol the streets of key Belarusian cities. Citizens are no longer allowed to form large gatherings and demonstrations. Finally, Belarusian state media is fully controlled by the government. Media broadcasts have simply spread the opinions of Minsk, falsifying the popularity of Lukashenka and his inner circle.

But the opposition movement will not give up. It is determined to fight for a free and democratic Belarusian state. Prominent members of the opposition now make frequent visits to their counterparts in the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union. During these meetings, they discuss how to promote greater transparency and pursue democratic processes in the fight for their country. These individuals have also discussed how western countries can impose stiffer penalties on Lukashenka and his regime. These financial punishments have been costly for Lukashenka as they have further distanced Belarus from western institutions and trade. Finally, the opposition movement has highlighted human rights abuses and violations by the Lukashenka regime. They hope this information will force international actors to further punish Lukashenka.

Unfortunately, these actions have not been enough. While the Belarusian opposition movement continues to have its voice heard, and while such groups have met with prominent world leaders and figures as they work to fight for a free and prosperous Belarus, the situation within the country itself is very different. Lukashenka will likely steal the forthcoming presidential election. He will threaten anyone who opposes him. Then, he will create new forms of punishment for those who undermine him.

Nonetheless, the Belarusian opposition movement cannot give up. Should the opposition’s efforts be successful, this could bring real change to the country. It would take time, but it would allow Belarus to build stronger relationships with western institutions. The country could pursue western values and traditions, and this would help improve the quality of life within Belarus. Finally, it would allow Belarusian citizens to peacefully work together without constant fear of persecution or imprisonment.

In short, much is at stake ahead of the 2025 Belarusian presidential election. It is likely that Lukashenka will steal the election and proclaim himself the victor of yet another falsified outcome. But it will be important to see how the opposition movement will respond to these events. Time will tell how the Belarusian people and the opposition will combat Lukashenka’s antics, and if they will be successful.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

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Alyaksandr Lukashenka, belarus, Belarusian elections, presidential elections