Thirty years of Lukashenka

A postage stamp depicting the first president of Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, 1996. Photo: Shutterstock

Last month, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka reached a major milestone as he celebrated his thirty-year anniversary ruling the country. Throughout his tenure, he has slowly distanced his country from the international community. The Belarusian leader has opted to strengthen relations with the Russian Federation while also condemning the actions of the European Union, the United States and NATO. He has used his power to crack down on political opponents and he has sought to consolidate his rule over Belarus.

Lukashenka was first elected as president of Belarus in 1994. During his early years, Lukashenka began a forced transformation of Belarusian society. He introduced a referendum on granting Russian the status of a state language; he pursued economic integration with Russia; and created a rule that the president has the right to dissolve parliament. While some members of the Belarusian government rejected the proposal, the Belarusian leader proceeded to hold the referendum. The results saw Belarus strengthen its ties with Russia, and it gave the Belarusian leader additional powers.

Then, during the early 2000s, the Belarusian leader collaborated with Russian officials to help him retain his power. During the 2001 presidential election, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) stated that the election process in Belarus “failed to meet international standards”. Shortly afterwords, the Belarusian leader introduced a referendum that eliminated presidential term limits, giving way to his extended rule. Then, during the 2006 presidential election, the OSCE stated that once again the Belarusian elections “failed to meet OSCE commitments for democratic elections”.

By the mid-2000s, the Belarusian leader sought other ways to consolidate his power. During the election cycle in 2010, several presidential candidates were beaten by police or arrested. The OSCE categorized the elections as “flawed”. In addition, several European leaders opted to boycott his inauguration ceremony. While Lukashenka had won his fourth term, it was apparent that he was consolidating power and that he was not interested in relinquishing his position. Finally, during the 2015 presidential election, the Belarusian leader was elected for a fifth term. Additional opposition members were imprisoned, and the Belarusian leader took measures to make it more difficult for opposition candidates to gain traction across the country.

Now, Lukashenka’s authoritarian rule has become most apparent during the 2020 presidential election and the 2024 parliamentary election. In 2020, President Lukashenka was challenged by opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. While Lukashenka wanted to maintain strong relations with Russia, Tsikhanouskaya called for Belarus to establish greater independence.

Threatened by the opposition, Lukashenka ordered his police to monitor the streets throughout major cities in the country. The police attacked and harmed Belarusian opposition members and Belarusian citizens who opposed the Lukashenka regime. Hundreds of protestors were wrongfully arrested and imprisoned, where they faced greater brutality. In addition, Lukashenka’s government rigged the election. The regime claimed that the president had overwhelmingly defeated his political opponent, but the international community saw the election as nothing but a farce.

Several opposition leaders then left the country, fearing for their safety. While in exile, the opposition movement has been very active. They have published reports through significant organizations, as well as articles in major news outlets highlighting the brutality of the Lukashenka regime. They have called for Belarus to strengthen ties with western organizations and institutions, and they have sought a better socio-economic future for their citizens.

Members of the opposition have also worked with various governments across the world to try and punish Lukashenka for his antics. For example, following the fraudulent 2020 election, the European Union imposed sanctions on several members of the Belarusian government. The United States also announced penalties on the Lukashenka regime. These punishments were not only put in place because of the authoritarian nature of the Belarusian government, but also because of its numerous human rights abuses.

Furthermore, the international community has punished Belarus for its involvement in supporting and aiding Russia during the invasion of Ukraine. Several Belarusian banks were cut off from SWIFT, the financial messaging network. Numerous Belarusian entities have been sanctioned and visa restrictions have also been implemented.

The Belarusian government, however, was undeterred by these events. Instead, the Belarusian president has continued to crack down on institutions in his country. During the 2024 parliamentary election, Lukashenka shut down several opposition political parties. He also ordered the consolidation of several pro-government political parties, making the political landscape less diverse.

Like the 2020 presidential election, the 2024 parliamentary election was also seen as a farce. Many candidates with favourable relations and ties to the Lukashenka regime won in the elections, and the Belarusian parliament has continued to become more sympathetic to the president.

Finally, Lukashenka called for the arrest of several opposition members and leaders. Most notably, the Belarusian leader has increased his crackdown on political opponents following the 2020 presidential election.

According to recent reports, there are 1,420 political prisoners in Belarus. Many of these individuals are members of opposition groups and the independent media. Belarusian activists have stated that conditions for these political prisoners are barbaric. The treatment of political prisoners in Belarusian institutions has been compared to torture. Several of these individuals have been denied medical care; they are barred from meeting with their friends and family as well as their lawyers; and their health conditions have deteriorated. Of the 1,420 individuals wrongly imprisoned, it has been reported that 200 of them are “seriously ill and require medical care”. Their conditions, however, are being ignored.

Those who have escaped wrongful imprisonment have been faced with other issues. Several of these individuals received lengthy sentences in absentia, where the government accused them of attempting to overthrow Lukashenka. Others have been labelled as being part of extremist groups.

Realizing the opposition remains strong, Lukashenka is hoping that some imprisoned members will turn. He has recently called on imprisoned political opponents to help the government with its efforts in identifying opposition members. This would further undermine democracy within Belarus, and it would strengthen Lukashenka’s authoritarian rule. His efforts thus far, however, have been unsuccessful.

Despite these events, the Belarusian opposition has remained undeterred by Lukashenka’s threats and brutality. The opposition has coordinated with western countries to impose stiff penalties on the Lukashenka regime in order to punish it for its abuse of power and its brutality against Belarusian citizens. For example, the European Union has restricted trade with Belarus. There are also limitations on goods, services and transport. This has made it more difficult for Belarus to interact with EU countries.

Meanwhile, the United States has coordinated with other countries around the world to target the “financial networks and assets”of Belarusian elites. The US also imposed “export controls and airspace restrictions”. Finally, Washington has imposed visa restrictions on the Belarusian government. These punishments have further distanced Lukashenka from the western world.

In short, there have been numerous changes in the political landscape in Belarus throughout Lukashenka’s tenure. Despite his authoritarian efforts, the Belarusian opposition is determined to make a stand against the Belarusian dictator. Lukashenka may have reached his thirtieth year in charge, but he will know that the political landscape around him is changing. His popularity among Belarusians is declining, and his brutality has been exposed by opposition leaders.

It remains to be seen how events between the opposition and Lukashenka will unfold. It is also unclear how the opposition movement will fare against him in the 2025 presidential election. For now, the international community will continue to observe these developments.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky

“We suport the Belarusian Awakening’24” is a project co-financed by Solidarity Fund PL within the framework of Polish development cooperation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in the amount of PLN 230,000.

This publication expresses the views of the author only and cannot be identified with the official position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland.

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Alyaksandr Lukashenka, belarus, Belarusian oppisition