Belarus is well known for its autocratic style of rule. This concept of governance has its roots in the Soviet system, which Minsk borrows heavily from in everyday administration. This approach interestingly extends to the country’s economy, which remains dominated by industry that is owned by the authoritarian state.

The upcoming presidential election in Belarus will help give an indication as to the strength of Lukashenka’s grip on the country. While it is clear who will come out on top in the rigged vote, a level of dissent could once again be expressed by an opposition brought to life by the last race five years ago.

Most participants of the 2020 protests have already graduated, but the pressure on Belarusian education has not ceased. With the authorities still focused on students, avoiding the institutionalized propaganda is becoming ever more difficult.

On September 17th, Belarus celebrated its fourth annual “Day of National Unity”, a public holiday established by Alyaksandr Lukashenka's decree in 2021. This date, marking the Soviet invasion of Poland in 1939, continues to be a focal point for the regime's endeavours to revise history. Its anti-Polish rhetoric further strains relations with its western neighbour and alienates Belarus's Polish minority.

Moscow has increasingly pressured Minsk for help in its war against Ukraine. Belarus’s recent military exercises on its southern border have been met with continued fears over the country’s independence. It is clear that at the moment Minsk has no good options when it comes to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

In the past, authoritarian regimes such as the Soviet Union maintained power through the total control of information and propaganda. Today, the situation has changed significantly. Many of the new features of contemporary dictatorships have been imposed by the process of globalization and technological progress.

Throughout history, dictatorial rulers have been a consistent presence, evolving from tribal chieftains and monarchs to modern-day autocrats. Even in different settings, these leaders had one thing in common: pursuing and maintaining power by utilizing diverse tools to secure their dominance. In ancient times it was often sufficient for a ruler to claim divine endorsement, such as being the representative of a rain or fire god, and to eliminate any threat or expression of disobedience.

This year marks the thirty-year anniversary of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s rule. While the Belarusian leader has been able to consolidate his power in the country, recent responses to crackdowns on the opposition suggest an uncertain future for the dictator.

The recent prisoner swap with Russia in early August marked the largest East-West exchange since the Cold War. Despite this, little has been said about the absence of Belarus in these agreements. A renewed effort is now needed to help the many political prisoners still held by Minsk.

The country ruled by the Kremlin-subordinate Alyaksandr Lukashenka has been transformed into a "Mordor" threatening its neighbours. Most would like to cut ties and forget about its existence. Belarus has become more distant.

Interview with Artyom Shraibman, an independent Belarusian political scientist. Interviewer: Paulina Siegień.

On February 25th 2024, Belarus will hold its first elections since August 2020, which resulted in mass protests for several months. How are the Belarusian authorities preparing for this event and what will be the likely outcome?

In the years that followed the controversial 2020 election – a resounding Lukashenka “victory” of over 80 per cent which bore little relation to the popular support for the challenger Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya – the ruling regime has undergone several serious trials to which it has responded ever more harshly. Its recent measures have included the elimination of the opposition’s media sites, the shutdown of hundreds of civil society organisations and the dissolution of all opposition and several official political parties.

The events of 2020 and the conviction that the fall of the Lukashenka regime is inevitable have prompted a number of businessmen to actively participate in the political processes in Belarus. This can serve as a basis for the assertion that in the event of the destruction or destabilization of the authoritarian regime, business groups will play an extremely important role in shaping a new way of life.

At the moment, it is obvious that the prospects for political change in Belarus are postponed indefinitely. At the same time, the probability of a rapid transition from authoritarianism to democracy is still uncertain. The protracted war in Ukraine and the systemic stability of Putin’s regime in Russia will contribute to the internal stabilization and consolidation of the authoritarian system of government in Belarus. This process will also be facilitated by relentless repression and political purges, which will suppress any dangerous activities in society, as well as increase the atmosphere of fear and terror. To date, there are no acute systemic internal threats and challenges to Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime.