Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has become Europe’s biggest challenge of the last 70 years. Undeniably, it has pushed the EU towards change. For more than a year, the EU has been introducing unprecedented external and domestic policies: numerous sanctions packages, frozen and confiscated Russian state and private assets, measures towards strategic energy independence, joint ammunition procurement, and a reinforced fight against Kremlin-backed disinformation.

Soon after it became clear that Russia’s brutal aggression on Ukraine was nowhere near the rapid military campaign it had hoped to be, the international debate on the reconstruction of Ukraine started. Backtracking through the focal points of this debate gives us a clue as to where the primary financial and non-financial obstacles lie.

The current phase of Russia’s war against Ukraine started on February 24th 2022. Evidently, it marked a turning point in Europe’s history, whose consequences we will be seeing in the long years to come. As of January 2023, there are no clear signs suggesting how long the war will last. In fact, there is no end in sight. Nevertheless, alongside the ongoing negotiations on the armament of Ukraine and the next round of sanctions on Russia, there is also a process taking place around establishing the framework for future reconstruction efforts. There is no doubt that without a clear and effective institutional architecture, the recovery will become bogged down in a ton of risks and problems.

The human cost of an armed conflict produces the most damaging and long-lasting societal consequences. Unlike residential buildings or infrastructure, which can be rebuilt through various forms of financial aid, human suffering cannot be remedied by financial assistance alone. Any discussion of a Marshall Plan for Ukraine needs to have a strong element of reparations for all those victims harmed during this past year.

A Marshall Plan for Ukraine is a recurring idea that is regularly featured in policy discussions both within Ukraine and abroad among policymakers, the media and academic circles. In many ways, this is a unique example of preparations to rebuild a war-torn country as that very war still rages on. Planning for reconstruction early is certainly the correct approach and the best evidence of a collective faith in Ukraine’s prospects to win the war.

Garry Poluschkin, an economic advisor for the Ukrainian government in a project financed by the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, describes the current needs and level of support required by Ukraine at the moment. At the same time, the expert underlines that there are discussions about the post-war reconstruction and the reforms that Ukraine will have to implement in order to attract investment and ensure compliance with EU requirements. A perspective of EU membership would attract investors and help the country. Interview conducted by John Beauchamp, a long-time radio journalist and the voice of the Warsaw Metro.

Ukraine can play an important role in the European Union’s energy transition. A green agenda should be prioritised as a part of Ukraine’s post-war recovery. Its integration into the EU’s energy market and energy transition priorities should become key targets not just for the EU, but for other external donors and international financial institutions.

Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine in February triggered a global energy crisis and has forced the European Union to speed up its vision for energy security. It has also broken down the barriers between energy security and climate policy. At the same time, Ukraine needs to review its own vision for energy security; as a candidate for EU membership it ought to enact binding targets to reduce its fossil fuel use. The EU’s climate target for 2030 was to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than half compared to levels in 1990. This target is in line with the EU Green Deal objective of achieving climate neutrality by 2050.

Whilst fighting continues in Donbas, governments and economists around the world are now thinking about a potential reconstruction plan for Ukraine. The scope of this project would mirror that of the post-war Marshall Plan and ultimately must take into account the peculiarities of Ukraine’s position.