One year ahead of Czechia’s parliamentary elections, polls show a substantial lead for ANO, the populist party founded by one of the richest oligarchs and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš. Like it or not, Babiš’s comeback seems inevitable. Yet with this inevitability comes uncertainty regarding with whom and how Babiš will govern again.

Czechia’s Andrej Babiš has been a heavyweight political player since the 2013 parliamentary elections. At that time, ANO had its first electoral success. Unexpectedly, it placed second in the race, capturing over 18 per cent of the vote, trailing only behind the Social Democrats, who secured the top position. This electoral success allowed Babiš to join the coalition government as finance minister. Four years later, in subsequent parliamentary elections, ANO won decisively. A score ten per cent higher than in 2013 gave it an absolute victory and first place in the race. Second was the right-wing Civic Democratic Party or ODS, which received only 11.32 per cent of the vote. In 2021, even though ANO lost by a minimal margin to the ODS-led Spolu (Together) coalition, it still recorded a good score of more than 27 per cent of the vote.

Kyiv’s recent performances on the battlefield have been hampered by unreliable supplies of aid from its allies. In response, Prague has tasked itself with purchasing large amounts of ammunition in an effort that will hopefully encourage similar action from other western states.

The mass shooting at Charles University on December 21st shocked observers both in the Czech Republic and further afield. Such a rare event has struck at the heart of an education system that has played such a pivotal role in national and European history.

Widespread protests are rocking the Czech Republic and government parties are polling at new lows. As the current ruling coalition crosses into the second half of its tenure, the return of former PM Andrej Babiš looms on the horizon.

A conversation with Samuel Abrahám, Slovak intellectual and editor in chief and publisher of the Slovak journal Kritika & Kontext. Interviewer: Adam Reichardt

ADAM REICHARDT: Despite the fact that Milan Kundera was a well-known writer with some ground-breaking books and essays, he was quite a private person. You knew him personally, how would you describe Kundera, as a person, writer and a colleague?

SAMUEL ABRAHÁM: True, he was a very private person, but whoever knew him, was struck by his humour and joie de vivre. He told us many funny stories about his beginnings in France, often making fun of himself and he managed to catch you in his web of jokes, if unguarded. Above all, it was an amazing picture to see him and his wife Věra, being so close and also intellectual peers and humorous.

While in the region Czechia can be considered a positive case in resisting authoritarian influence, it has been far from perfect, especially when considering its recent turbulence. Nevertheless, there are now a lot of practices countering malign influence – including that of China – in Czechia that could serve as examples for both the region and the wider EU.

Since February 24th 2022, the whole of Europe and the world have been witnessing a new phase in the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which has reshaped the European – and to a large extent also the global – security order. Issues such as the shelling of Ukraine’s nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, often described as “nuclear blackmail”, frightened the global community into fearing a repeat of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear catastrophe in the Soviet Union.

Some EU countries have decided on a clear position regarding China’s foreign policy aims. This could not have become more apparent when a plane filled with Czech people arrived in Taipei.

On July 1st, the Czech Republic took over the Council of the European Union’s presidency. This has happened at a time of enormous pressure, as the union is faced with the Russian war against Ukraine. Czechia’s performance may benefit particularly from a clear consensus when it comes to sanctions on Moscow. Under a responsible leadership, the state may not only help bring an end to the violence in Ukraine but also lead the country closer to the bloc.

Putin’s regime is politicising history on a massive scale. The Russian leadership often exploits the past in order to pursue its foreign policy goals and promote its identity politics in the country.

In mid-December, Brussels hosted a key summit of the Eastern Partnership. The Czech Republic has long placed great emphasis on this form of EU neighbourhood policy. However, reluctance on the part of some EU states suggests that the meeting’s outcomes may not live up to the country’s hopes.

The results of the January 26th and 27th Czech election will determine the relations between Central and Eastern Europe and Brussels: If Zeman wins, nationalistic positions will prevail in the region. If Drahos is elected, Central and Eastern Europe will not present a uniformly Eurosceptic front. In future struggles over individual freedoms and European funds this will be of importance.

Interview with Petr Kratochvil, director of the Institute of International Relations Prague. Interviewer: Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska.