Orbán’s Ukraine narrative  

Political propaganda on billboard seen in Budapest featuring Ursula von der Leyen, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Péter Magyar. Full text reads: "They increase taxes and (spend your money on a Ukrainian golden toilet)". Photo: Shutterstock

On April 12th 2026 Hungary is to hold general elections. Today we can say that there is a real chance that after 16 years Viktor Orbán’s consecutive rule could come to an end. Data from polls conducted in March by the Hungarian research institute Medián shows that Fidesz is more than 20 per cent behind the two-year-old Tisza party – led by Péter Magyar, the ex-husband of Orbán’s former Minister of Justice, Judit Varga. If the margin is this large on the election day, it could lead to a two-thirds majority win for the opposition party, which is a real threat to Orbán and his close circles. Although most pollsters have not shown such an enormous gap between the two parties, most institutes expect that in this year’s elections it will be the opposition that will get the most votes. Yet it would be a mistake to underestimate Fidesz in the election campaign, as the ruling party is working hard to convince society that they are “the secure choice” in today’s unpredictable world.

An adversary state

The Hungarian prime minister uses different methods to legitimize his power. Fear and hatred are among the most important ones. The antagonistic “us versus them” approach has been the core of Fidesz’s rhetoric since mid-2010s. Evidently, for the last decade the fear of Soros, migrants, sexual minorities and “liberals” has worked very well for Orbán. Since 2022, this list of enemies has been additionally joined by Ukraine, which is now regarded as an adversary state. Matter-of-factly, relations between Budapest and Kyiv first started to degrade in the late 2010s, when Ukraine introduced new education and language laws. In Hungary, they were viewed as seriously violating the rights of minorities (including Hungarians) who live and receive education in Ukraine. As a result, at the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Hungarians had a neutral/rather negative attitude towards the country, which further allowed Fidesz to build a Ukraine-sceptic narrative – and reinforce this sentiment especially among its supporters. The information campaign that followed was so successful that by late 2025, research published by PolicySolutions – a Hungary-based research institute – showed that more people in Hungary (50 per cent) perceived Ukraine as a threat to their state than they saw Russia (47 per cent). With that in mind, it is not that surprising that in 2026, Ukraine and Volodymir Zelenskyy have become useful campaign tools for Fidesz.

Brussels – enemy number one

In 2026, Orbán tells Hungarians that their country has three enemies who are trying to drag it into war and end Fidesz’s peace-oriented rule. First and foremost, it is Brussels who is the main enemy. Thus, in a recent speech, Hungarians could hear from their prime minister that the real threat to their country was not coming from the East – meaning Russia – but from Brussels – meaning EU institutions, bureaucracy, and supporters of the war, migration and woke ideology. Closely related to them is the second enemy, Péter Magyar, who, according to Orbán, is a puppet of the EU and Ukraine, and – when elected – will be willing to do anything that von der Leyen and Zelenskyy – the third enemy – ask him to do.

Ukraine has been a major topic in Hungarian domestic politics for a few years now, but as the current campaign is heating up, targeting Zelenskyy and his country has reached new heights. In late January a Russian drone damaged the Druzhba pipeline, through which Russian oil flows to Slovakia and Hungary. While after the attacks Ukraine admitted that reparations were (and still are) needed, Orbán stated – based on a satellite image – that the pipeline has been operational, and that it is simply not working for political reasons. In addition, Fidesz accuses his domestic rival, Tisza, of not convincing Zelenskyy to restart the oil flow. Few weeks later, Hungarian authorities raided a Ukrainian cash transport convoy passing through the country, and the money and gold were seized on suspicion of money laundering. A government politician later alluded that the raid may have been politically motivated as an answer to the “oil blockade”.

With a little help of AI

Overall, Ukraine has become a very hot topic in Hungary, especially since the government has started making claims – based on non-specified sources – that Kyiv is planning an attack against Hungarian critical infrastructure. This issue has been presented by Fidesz as so serious that military personnel were deployed throughout the country to defend these facilities. As no NATO allies have been contacted by the Budapest authorities concerning the security threat in their state, independent commentators concluded that whatever happens to critical infrastructure in Hungary had not been conducted by Ukraine. Although the government have later clarified that Ukraine “only” wants to intervene into Hungary politically, the military deployment was probably aimed at the undecided voters who could absorb the narrative that the threat is real.

Last but not least, the tool that Fidesz has been eagerly using in the campaign are AI generated videos. These are mostly posts about the wrongdoings of Péter Magyar, but there are also some that have a foreign policy aspect to them. These videos include Zelenskyy, von der Leyen and/or the president of the European People’s Party Manfred Weber, whose “orders” to send weapons, money and soldiers to Ukraine will be implemented by Magyar without any hesitation. In the most disturbing video, a small Hungarian girl asks her mother about her father’s whereabouts, to which the mother is unable to answer. In the meantime, her father is kneeling in mud, blindfolded with his hands tied to his back while being executed by an enemy officer on the Ukrainian front. The government claims that this could become a possible scenario if Fidesz does not win the elections.

Possible implications for the elections

Less than a week is left until the elections. According to polls Tisza has the highest chance to get the most votes, yet it is hard to tell what the result may be. What is clear is that Fidesz has not slowed down in promoting a narrative that presents Magyar as a puppet of Zelenskyy and the EU. Hungarians are increasingly told that Tisza is a puppet of Brussels and Kyiv is planning to intervene in their elections and drag their country into the war. The Ukraine narrative is not only a campaigning tool but has the potential to be used as a basis to discredit an unfavourable result, especially if the opposition wins a two-third majority.

Last month several Fidesz-related scandals came to the surface, the most serious being an accusation that the government tried to undermine and destroy Magyar’s party by using secret services. As a defence, Fidesz is sticking to the basic narrative, systematically connecting all scandals to Ukraine. They either state that Kyiv is behind the operation or that the scandal is Ukrainian disinformation and based on lies – even though it frequently leads to contradictions. To support these claims, Orbán recently declared that currently there are 400 Ukrainian agents in Hungary who are here to influence the elections. Additionally, due to the US and Israel’s war with Iran, the terror alert level has also been increased. All of these elements can be used as a reference point for extraordinary measures in case the government suffers a great defeat. All said, many questions are yet to be answered, but one thing is certain: Hungary is set for many turbulent months.

Ludwik Botfy (pseud.) – Budapest-based analyst on Central European politics and security

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Hungarian election, Hungarian foreign policy, Hungary-Ukraine relations, Péter Magyar, Viktor Orban