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Inside Viktor Orbán’s worst political crisis yet

There is no sugar-coating it: after 15 years of unchecked power, Hungary’s Fidesz has plunged into its most severe political crisis yet. Worsening economic data, the rise of a far more potent opposition, and shifting international political trends have led to an unprecedented situation. For much of 2025, Fidesz has no longer been the strongest party. That position now belongs to the new challenger, Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party.

With parliamentary elections scheduled in Hungary for next year, it is now entirely possible, though still hard to believe, that the Viktor Orbán regime could come to an end. Yet the situation is far from simple. Orbán and his allies still possess overwhelming economic power and, crucially, continue to conduct precise polling on voter attitudes.

July 8, 2025 - Samu Czabán - AnalysisIssue 4 2025Magazine

Peter Magyar, the vice president of the Tisza Party, invited interested parties to a picnic at the foot of Nógrád Castle on the first stop of his visit to Nógrád County in May 2024. Photo: Zoltan Galantai / Shutterstoc

They use this data to constantly reshape the electoral system to their own advantage. If even a single housing estate swings, they can redraw the electoral map.

As the opposition’s potential victory becomes increasingly plausible, the dominant topic in Hungary’s independent media has become whether Orbán would actually relinquish power if he loses at the ballot box. A new narrative has emerged from the government, portraying the Tisza Party and Péter Magyar as Brussels agents, allegedly setting the stage for foreign interference.

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