No matter the ultimate outcome, a “Darkest Hour” winter beckons for Ukraine amidst questions over western resolve. So, does the Free World really have the stomach to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes (to win)”? And can the West really “mobilize” to this end, as the returning Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently demanded?

A few years after its greatest triumph – the overcoming of the European divide as a result of the peaceful revolutions in Eastern Europe – the European idea experienced an ever-deepening erosion: "Europe has run out of a narrative," said Munich political scientist Werner Weidenfeld in 2018. It was the solidarity with Ukraine, which was invaded in February 2022, that was supposed to help the "open societies" get off to a new start. However, the autocratic enemies of these societies are also currently experiencing a process of consolidation.

The argument that NATO provoked Russia is an obvious example of Moscow’s narrative being regurgitated in mainstream western media. The truth is, however, that we did not take enough action. This is what ultimately encouraged Putin to act in such a brutal manner.

Vladimir Putin and his criminal war in Ukraine have returned the Russian economy back to the dark days of the early 1990s, with spiralling inflation, winding queues in front of banks and shops, stringent financial controls and a new wave of skilled Russian emigrants flowing out of the country. This crisis is only likely to get worse as Russia turns into a pariah state unpalatable for the world’s most technologically-advanced nations and enterprises.

As Vladimir Putin launched his brutal invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, a US-led coalition of like-minded governments launched their own economic barrage of sanctions against the Russian state, its largest companies and some of its most prominent individuals. The sanctions have focused on crippling Russia’s finances and its ability to pay for the war in Ukraine, as well as severing its military-industrial complex from strategic components. They have put a prohibitive lock on key Russian economic sectors like high-tech, energy and tradeables.

No one knows when or how Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine will end. But when the conflict ends, a rebuilding phase will be required. During this period, US and western leaders would be wise to tread lightly as they try to establish a new relationship with Russia.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, a new era was born. Fifteen countries emerged from the disbanded union and the West assumed that they would naturally gravitate towards democracy and capitalist economies. As a result, the West welcomed these new countries to join its institutions. One of these countries was Russia.

The conflict in Ukraine has encouraged western countries to reassess their overall relations with Russia. Despite this, some apologists continue to hold on to the paradoxical relationships that ultimately led to the conflict in the first place.

Debate continues over whether or not Putin is specifically worried about Ukraine’s ongoing attempts at reform. Whilst democracy in the country is flawed, the situation on the ground is by no means as bad as suggested by certain writers.

There are many western voices echoing Russian claims NATO's eastwards expansion is to blame for the current tensions. However, neither Russia's first incursion into Ukraine, nor the current pressure applied can be attributed to anyone other than the Kremlin.

Vladimir Putin seems to be in an enviable position. After the recent unrest in Kazakhstan, it appears that Russia has yet another avenue to expand its influence. However, this expansion could help usher in the demise of Putin and his regime in the Kremlin.

Whilst a number of states have recently expressed their desire to support Ukraine, many internal critics have challenged this outlook. The West must now commit to the region in order to avoid further conflict.

On December 13th 2020 an ecumenical service was held in Berlin Cathedral to pay tribute to the protesters in Belarus. It was followed by a political debate, which focused on a new European Eastern policy, a new Ostpolitik. Through the organisation of these two events, the churches showed, once again, their eagerness to engage in building bridges for the way to peace and democracy.

A special new Policy Paper co-published with the Institute of Central Europe is now available.