Central Asia has been known as a region that was for a long period of time incorporated into the Soviet Union and therefore influenced by Russia. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has undermined its reputation and presence in the region, and the emerging gap in trade and security is slowly being filled by China. How do these states manage such new shifts in geopolitics? And what trends may shape their outlook for the future?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has become a serious challenge for Central Asian states, which tend to consider Russia as their reliable partner in the security and economic spheres. However, Russian foreign policy treats Central Asia as an extension of its sphere of influence, which should be maintained by two international organisations led by Russia: the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

Independent Uzbekistan has been no stranger to controversy. Once ruled by the autocratic Islam Karimov, the country had failed to make any serious changes to its political system as recently as 2016. Ongoing reforms by President Mirziyoyev, however, suggest that the country and even the region may now be changing for the better.

NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan will leave its Central Asian neighbours with a number of challenges. Central Asian states are likely to address these issues with the help of Russia and China, who are eager to advance their status and role in the region.

Uzbekistan has a geopolitical potential to be the region's leader and solve its most pressing problems like water scarcity. Its central location makes it easy to reach out to all the Central Asian states. The future regional dynamics will depend on the relations between Tashkent and Astana, which geopolitically define the shape of Central Asia.

This piece originally appeared in Issue 6/2016 of New Eastern Europe. Subscribe now.

On October 19th 2016 Uzbekistan’s foreign minister Abdulaziz Komilov  surprised the international community by declaring the full support of Uzbekistan for Palestine and Al-Quds Ash-Shareef (Jerusalem) during a press conference of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Tashkent. Moreover, Komilov began his speech, for the first time in the country’s history, in line with the Islamic tradition with the words “In the name of Allah” (Bismillahir Rahmanir Raheem). Under Karimov’s rule, it would be unthinkable to make such a statement, as Uzbekistan always tried to stay ideologically neutral to avoid getting involved in international disputes. Even during the Ukraine crisis, which directly concerns Uzbekistan, the late president decided not to express his support for either side.

The death of the 78-year-old leader of Uzbekistan on September 2nd 2016 has cast the country into uncharted waters and sent shock waves through a region facing multiple security concerns. The late president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, who had ruled the country with an iron fist for 27 years, has been credited with building a stable, powerful, and secure state, albeit at the expense of civil, political, and religious freedoms. With all eyes on Uzbekistan’s internal power dealings in the run-up to the presidential election scheduled for December 4th 2016, many analysts expect a smooth and controlled transfer of power to a new president. Less discussed are the consequences of the current transition for the country and the region in the medium and long-term.

Last Saturday, on September 3rd 2016, people in Tashkent woke up earlier than usual to pay a last farewell to Uzbekistan’s first president – Islam Karimov. He was in power for exactly 25 years, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The national holiday to celebrate the independence of the country was set for September 1st, and on September 2nd 2016, the president suffered a fatal brain hemorrhage.

Uzbekistan will most likely celebrate its September 1st independence day without long-serving President Islam Karimov, marking a potentially dramatic first for this strategic Central Asian country since it broke free of the former Soviet Union 25 years ago.

The conversion of India and Pakistan into full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) during the summit in Tashkent highlights the importance of the stabilisation of the wider Asian region. This will be the organisation's first ever enlargement since its inception in 2001 when Uzbekistan, having no direct border with China, was impressed by the Shanghai Five's performance in reducing conflict potential along China’s border with the Central Asian states. Having observed the organisation's growing potential Uzbekistan chose to join. At this point the the group changed its name to the SCO and outlined principles that would shape their fair and mutually beneficial cooperation. The chief principle was the status of partners. Introducing equality to the region, formerly dominated by Russian-led blocs, critically separated the SCO from any other organisation.