On the eve of the first anniversary of Russia’s full-fledged war against Ukraine, US President Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv before embarking on a scheduled trip to Poland. Both visits are full of messages and symbols, but broader policy implications may not be so visible at first glance. This article will look at US foreign policy priorities during the time remaining before the US presidential elections in 2024.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022, segments of the US foreign policy elite have been encouraging Ukraine to pursue peace with Russia. This encouragement would be one thing if it was done with Ukraine’s best interests at heart. However, a read through many publications by certain individuals reveals a patronising tone that often ignores the needs of a country fighting for its existence.

The US has proven itself to be a firm supporter of Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression. Despite this, however, Washington has still not taken advantage of the various opportunities now presenting themselves in Eurasia and the strategically important South Caucasus.

Joe Biden was announced as president-elect of the United States just over a year ago. He recently departed for Europe on his second trip to the continent. But what about Biden’s foreign policy towards Europe? What are his priorities and what has this trip revealed about his overall foreign policy vision?

The Biden administration could use the Three Seas Initiative to engage with Central and Eastern Europe and counter Russian and Chinese influence in the region.

The future of NATO’s nuclear sharing programme in Central and Eastern Europe is closely connected to the political relationship between Washington, Berlin and Warsaw. Dimensions such as geopolitics and infrastructure must also be taken into account.  

NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan will leave its Central Asian neighbours with a number of challenges. Central Asian states are likely to address these issues with the help of Russia and China, who are eager to advance their status and role in the region.

Democracies are defined by the holding of regular elections that are free and fair, resulting in an alternation of leaders and the orderly transition of power. A central characteristic of this process is that while electoral outcomes are unpredictable, the manner in which politicians are replaced is highly routinised. Donald Trump, however, is a maverick and rule-breaker the likes of which the United States has never seen before.

Incoming US President Joe Biden should re-engage US foreign policy in the South Caucasus in order to function as a balanced foreign policy actor between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Countries in Eastern Europe will closely follow the outcome of the US election in order to understand how the result will affect the transatlantic relationship and US foreign policy towards themselves.

The Washington Agreements signed with Kosovo and Serbia last month raise many questions, including how they will be implemented and what the political fallout in Kosovo might be.

The Trump Administration’s Serbia-Kosovo agreement may achieve short-term successes, but it could also result in long-term negative consequences for the two adversaries.