The beginning of Moldova’s official accession negotiations with the EU will mark a pivotal moment in the country’s history. Despite this, full membership is still not an inevitability. Brussels must subsequently help Moldova to reform key areas of its society throughout the process.

The war in Ukraine has highlighted the increasingly delicate situation faced by the residents of Transnistria. Whilst questions are now being asked about the breakaway region’s political future, most of its inhabitants remain eager to live as normal a life as possible.

Ongoing tensions over Ukraine have the potential to greatly impact other flashpoints in the region. This is most clear with regards to pro-Russian Transnistria, which lies less than 100 kilometres from Odesa.

The coronavirus pandemic has had a significant impact on both Moldova and the breakaway region of Transdniestria. Moldova remains on the so-called “red list” of countries due to its high number of COVID-19 cases. Transdniestrians, meanwhile, face even more severe restrictions. Since March 16th a state of emergency was declared in the para-state and its borders with Ukraine and Moldova have been closed.

COVID-19 harshly hit the population on the banks of the Dniester River – those from Moldova, on the right bank, and those from the breakaway region of Transdniestria, on the left bank. While the people of Transdniestria have been living in a symbolic isolation for the past number of decades, the measures imposed by the de-facto authorities there during the outbreak made the region even more isolated. However this has not stopped the people of the region from exploring alternative ways of connecting with the outside world and with each other.

The multipolarity of today’s world is changing Transdniestria. The unrecognised para-state that until recently was almost exclusively dependent on Russia, now trades with the European Union. While this new reality may not have reduced Russia’s influence in the region, it has certainly offered Transdniestrian oligarchs a new business opportunity.

A quick look at the breakaway territory of Transdniestria’s trade balance confirms that its authorities’ narrative, which assumes near-sacred political and historical ties with Russia, does not match the economic reality. In 2018 as much as 36 per cent of Transdniestrian exports were sent to European Union states, while only ten per cent made it to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU, a customs union made up of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan – editor’s note). Ukraine and Moldova are also important recipients of Transdniestrian products.

Ukraine on the defence, Moldova on the cusp & Transnistrian identity

Like youth everywhere, young people in Transnistria are depressed about little things but not as anxious as their peers in the West. The lack of information and the feeling of living in a bubble make it easier for them to survive. Despite what you might often read in western media, life in Transnistria is not all that bad.

Over the past few weeks unprecedented progress in the negotiations between the government in Chișinău and the authorities of the breakaway-separatist region of Transnistria has unfolded. The progress has caused modest hope for a breakthrough in this 25-year-long frozen conflict and it should rather be seen as a tool in Vlad Plahotniuc's political game. The oligarch ruling over Moldova cleverly draws on a beneficial international environment and the favourability of Moscow and Tiraspol.

Moldova`s newly elected president, Igor Dodon, paid his first official visit to Transnistria and held talks with Vadim Krasnoselsky, the head of the breakaway region, on January 4th. The information was provided by Dodon on his Facebook account. According to the Moldovan leader, he congratulated Vadim Krasnoselsky on his victory in the December presidential election, discussed a wide range of issues, including simplifying the movement of people between Moldova and Transnistria. He also wrote about establishing good relations, emphasised the readiness of both parties to look for compromise and promised that the agreement will produce tangible results in 2017. Dodon did not miss the opportunity to touch upon the issue of religion, the Orthodox faith, which according to him “alongside the common history, unites our citizens on both banks of the Dniester.”

With the presidential election planned for December 11th, the political situation in Transnistria is becoming increasingly tense. Holding the majority of seats in the Supreme Council (the local parliament), the opposition, which is closely connected to the main economic force in the region, a corporation named “Sheriff”, has focused its efforts on criticising current president Yevgeny Shevchuk. The opposition has accused the unrecognised republic’s leader of misappropriation of 100 million USD from public funds and also of high treason. In his defence, Shevchuk has portrayed the opposition as a tool in the hands of the oligarchs and looked to the Kremlin for support. However, it seems unlikely that Russia will back Shevchuk, who has been widely unpopular. The disastrous economic situation of the republic, largely due to his policies, has not worked in his favour. Meanwhile, it seems that the opposition has already chosen his successor.