Gross violations of the right to freedom of peaceful assembly are now being registered in Armenia during anti-government demonstrations. Journalists are also being subjected to violence as the country continues to face political upheaval.

Russia’s increasing isolation on the global stage is creating opportunities for the EU across Eurasia. This is most clear in the South Caucasus, where frustration over Moscow’s actions may allow Brussels to play a key stabilising role.

The war in Ukraine has also opened long-standing geopolitical wounds in the three states of the South Caucasus, which now find themselves on the frontline of the new Cold War. The modest reactions of Baku, Tbilisi and Yerevan to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine underline the precarious states the three countries find themselves in.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has geopolitical implications for Europe and beyond. This includes the three South Caucasus countries, all of which are members of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership initiative. Yet, governmental and societal reactions have varied in all three countries, with the Georgian government being cornered into a strategy of “non-deterrence”, the Armenian government subordinate to Russia’s security interests, and the Azerbaijani government pursuing its balancing policy while also seeking a strategic partnership with Moscow.

Yerevan’s close security links with the Kremlin have encouraged beliefs that the country simply follows orders from Moscow. However, Armenia’s diverse experiences related to the ongoing war in Ukraine show that this could not be further from the truth.

The war in Ukraine has encouraged Baku to pursue a policy of neutrality as it tries to maintain links with both Kyiv and Moscow. Despite this, parts of the Russian media have consistently characterised Azerbaijan’s actions as an attempt to gain at Russia’s expense.

The Russo-Ukrainian War has left Armenia in a difficult situation. The state’s attempt to adopt a low-profile neutrality on the issue has been met with criticism at home and abroad. Given the country’s circumstances, however, it appears that this may be the best option currently available.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine drastically changed the security environment in Europe. While the EU, US, China, Turkey and other actors are quickly adapting to the rapidly changing security environment, Georgia seems to be looking at the recent developments from the side lines.

Georgia’s political environment remains characterised by deep divides that have persisted for years. Following the EU’s own attempts to help the country last year, it appears that it is now the Georgian president’s turn to help forge a path forward.

Since the news broke early in the day on February 24th that Russian forces were invading Ukraine, many living in Georgia were quick to express solidarity and a willingness to help.

Armenia’s support for the recent CSTO intervention in Kazakhstan may seem unusual at first glance. However, this move is ultimately part of a wider strategy in Yerevan that involves both domestic and international affairs.

While China struggles to consolidate its economic position in the South Caucasus, Pakistan has cemented its strategic alliance with Azerbaijan. Simultaneously, India has entered a new phase of relations with Armenia. Even though the presence of Asian powers in the region represents an opportunity for economic development, it may also entail some risks.

Asian powers have recently shown increasing interest in the South Caucasus. In particular, Pakistan and India have stepped into the region, joining and partially balancing China's strong presence. Several factors have contributed to the entrance of these new Asian players and this is particularly true regarding the new balance of power established by the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. At the same time, the European Union and United States’ lack of engagement with the region has left more room for action by other external powers.

Ankara and Yerevan’s ongoing talks to normalise relations could result in radical change at both the bilateral and regional level. Despite this, various historical and contemporary issues continue to challenge this process.