The EU’s relationship with Baku has long been marred by disagreement over Azerbaijani domestic policy. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a renewed bilateral focus on energy. A recent decision to sign a new gas deal shows that the nature of relations may truly be changing.

The US has proven itself to be a firm supporter of Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression. Despite this, however, Washington has still not taken advantage of the various opportunities now presenting themselves in Eurasia and the strategically important South Caucasus.

The EU’s decision to not offer Georgia candidate status disappointed a nation that has long aspired to join the bloc. Despite this, European institutions have offered advice to get the country back on track in the face of various domestic issues.

In 2008, NATO did not grant Ukraine and Georgia a Membership Action Plan. It was mainly the result of Vladimir Putin’s personal persuasion at the NATO Summit in Bucharest which took place that year. The Kremlin considered it as a weakness of the West and attacked Georgia the same year. Is the European Union now capable of taking a bolder decision with regards to countries aspiring to join its structures?

Gross violations of the right to freedom of peaceful assembly are now being registered in Armenia during anti-government demonstrations. Journalists are also being subjected to violence as the country continues to face political upheaval.

Russia’s increasing isolation on the global stage is creating opportunities for the EU across Eurasia. This is most clear in the South Caucasus, where frustration over Moscow’s actions may allow Brussels to play a key stabilising role.

The war in Ukraine has also opened long-standing geopolitical wounds in the three states of the South Caucasus, which now find themselves on the frontline of the new Cold War. The modest reactions of Baku, Tbilisi and Yerevan to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine underline the precarious states the three countries find themselves in.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has geopolitical implications for Europe and beyond. This includes the three South Caucasus countries, all of which are members of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership initiative. Yet, governmental and societal reactions have varied in all three countries, with the Georgian government being cornered into a strategy of “non-deterrence”, the Armenian government subordinate to Russia’s security interests, and the Azerbaijani government pursuing its balancing policy while also seeking a strategic partnership with Moscow.

Yerevan’s close security links with the Kremlin have encouraged beliefs that the country simply follows orders from Moscow. However, Armenia’s diverse experiences related to the ongoing war in Ukraine show that this could not be further from the truth.

The war in Ukraine has encouraged Baku to pursue a policy of neutrality as it tries to maintain links with both Kyiv and Moscow. Despite this, parts of the Russian media have consistently characterised Azerbaijan’s actions as an attempt to gain at Russia’s expense.

The Russo-Ukrainian War has left Armenia in a difficult situation. The state’s attempt to adopt a low-profile neutrality on the issue has been met with criticism at home and abroad. Given the country’s circumstances, however, it appears that this may be the best option currently available.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine drastically changed the security environment in Europe. While the EU, US, China, Turkey and other actors are quickly adapting to the rapidly changing security environment, Georgia seems to be looking at the recent developments from the side lines.

Georgia’s political environment remains characterised by deep divides that have persisted for years. Following the EU’s own attempts to help the country last year, it appears that it is now the Georgian president’s turn to help forge a path forward.