Iran’s ongoing supply of drones for Russia’s war effort against Ukraine has made headlines around the world. However, what is not being talked about is Armenia’s involvement in this alliance. Yerevan now faces a crucial decision regarding its future as a democratic state.

Karabakh remains a key global hot spot in terms of periodic clashes between conflicting parties – Armenia and Azerbaijan. The collective West has often been criticised because of its inability to take a leading role in the peace process, especially after the Second Karabakh War of 2020 enabled Russia to increase its influence in the South Caucasus. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine has influenced the Karabakh peace process, which in light of Russia’s shifting attention and declining resources has resulted in a weakened role for Moscow. There now seems to be momentum for the West to play an important role in the process, which will be beneficial for all parties. 

While the world remains focused on the war in Ukraine, an important political game is being played in the South Caucasus. The local states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia now find themselves in rather different positions as external powers attempt to jostle for position in this fractious region.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has destabilised not only Europe but also its neighbourhood and inevitably the South Caucasus. This region already has a complicated geopolitical milieu even without any external triggers. Regardless of the outcome, the war will result in a resentful spillover effect in the three countries of the South Caucasus, as they are connected to Russia through trade, remittances and tourism. The economic sanctions, imposed by the West, have enormously affected the rouble, decreasing the remittances sent from Russia by the Azerbaijani, Armenian and Georgian diasporas. Russia is and will be isolated and this will create difficulties for the nationals of the three countries living there.

After Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War in 2020, keeping the Azerbaijan-India partnership on pragmatic rails became a hard feat to pull off. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions, however, created new opportunities for Azerbaijan and India, with the International North-South Transport Corridor at the centre of this renewed co-operation.

Following a brief summer hiatus, the Georgian parliament is back in session. At the top of the list will be the reform efforts proposed by the European Commission.

Green issues are usually not the first thing that comes to mind regarding Georgian politics. Despite this, the signing of a recent treaty shows that the country is starting to take climate change seriously. Tbilisi must subsequently make sure that such promises now result in real change.

The EU’s relationship with Baku has long been marred by disagreement over Azerbaijani domestic policy. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a renewed bilateral focus on energy. A recent decision to sign a new gas deal shows that the nature of relations may truly be changing.

The US has proven itself to be a firm supporter of Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression. Despite this, however, Washington has still not taken advantage of the various opportunities now presenting themselves in Eurasia and the strategically important South Caucasus.

The EU’s decision to not offer Georgia candidate status disappointed a nation that has long aspired to join the bloc. Despite this, European institutions have offered advice to get the country back on track in the face of various domestic issues.

In 2008, NATO did not grant Ukraine and Georgia a Membership Action Plan. It was mainly the result of Vladimir Putin’s personal persuasion at the NATO Summit in Bucharest which took place that year. The Kremlin considered it as a weakness of the West and attacked Georgia the same year. Is the European Union now capable of taking a bolder decision with regards to countries aspiring to join its structures?

Gross violations of the right to freedom of peaceful assembly are now being registered in Armenia during anti-government demonstrations. Journalists are also being subjected to violence as the country continues to face political upheaval.

Russia’s increasing isolation on the global stage is creating opportunities for the EU across Eurasia. This is most clear in the South Caucasus, where frustration over Moscow’s actions may allow Brussels to play a key stabilising role.