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Tag: sanctions

Europe’s heavy cost of dependency

While the European Union is developing plans to finally and completely cut itself off from Russian oil and gas supplies, the solutions it has found are less than ideal. This illustrates the challenge that Europe faces in overcoming its dependency on Russia, while at the same time not giving in to massive fossil fuel development. To make matters worse, Europe cannot escape the geopolitical dimension of fossil fuels.

September 27, 2025 - Raze Baziani

The EU-US policy divide over Belarus

As the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on with little movement towards President Donald Trump’s pledged “24-hour resolution”, other arenas have gained momentum in his second-term foreign policy. Amid this dynamic context, Minsk has recently surfaced as a new, previously untapped, yet demonstrably successful venue for his deal-making agenda – and a potential strategic lever in Washington’s efforts to shake up the war next door.

September 27, 2025 - Vitali Matyshau

Europe’s narrowing menu on policy towards Belarus

Since even before 2020, EU sanctions against Belarus have failed to achieve their core goals, neither crippling the economy nor forcing a change in Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s behaviour. Instead, the EU strategy has arguably backfired – tightening authoritarian control, worsening human rights conditions, and even bolstering domestic support for the regime.

September 17, 2025 - Vitali Matyshau

Beating the blockade: why western sanctions failed to cripple Russia

Issues persist concerning the effectiveness of the West’s sanctions programme on Russia. While hopes were expressed that this would ultimately bring Moscow to the negotiating table, such ambitions have ultimately failed to influence the Kremlin and its aggressive foreign policy.

May 19, 2025 - Divya Malhotra

The refrigerator and the television. Sanctions as war by other means

Sanctions are always a kind of double-edged sword. In order to be effective and prevent bypassing, they have to be comprehensive and include as many countries as possible. Changing elite behaviour depends on increasing the kind of pressure that pushes parties off the battlefield and to the negotiating table. Sanctions can therefore help to tip the balance.

Sanctions regimes aim to change elite behaviour by raising the costs and stakes of their choices, both directly in terms of diminishing their personal comfort including travel and access to finance, and indirectly by increasing popular pressure against their rule through economic hardship. This highlights one of several problems with sanctions. These elites are usually uninterested in popular welfare, explaining their attitude towards democracy and its wider benefits.

February 28, 2025 - Greg Mills Hryhoriy Nemyria Luis Ravina Ray Hartley

The impact of western sanctions on Belarus

The targeted sanctions imposed on Belarus in 2022 did not take long to deliver a powerful blow to the nation's economy. The immediate aftermath was characterized by a sharp contraction, marking the onset of what economists have termed a “transformational recession”. Yet, the Lukashenka regime, bolstered by its close ties with Russia and its tight grip on domestic power structures, has so far weathered the storm.

September 20, 2024 - Hanna Vasilevich

Economic frontlines: bracing for a possible Trump return

November could see former US President Donald Trump return to the White House. His rather unpredictable approach to foreign policy could subsequently leave an even greater impact on the world than it did in his first term. This is due to various new conflicts like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with both Kyiv and Moscow preparing for Trump’s potential victory.

Over the last month, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has upended the presidential race in the United States by opening a small lead over Donald Trump in national polls. However, historical experience suggests early leads are often overturned and the upcoming presidential debates may prove decisive. With Trump still very much in the race, policymakers in Russia and Ukraine are bracing for what could be a seismic shift in US foreign policy.

September 17, 2024 - Cassia Scott-Jones

Gold must not become Russia’s anti-sanction silver bullet

Despite being the most sanctioned country in the world, Russia keeps successfully circumventing these restrictions. Among all of its economic options, gold is helping it to do so.

May 8, 2024 - Lesia Dubenko

The implications of Russia’s currency crisis for Putin’s war plans

Russia’s war in Ukraine has resulted in grave consequences for the rouble. While an initial rise in value was originally viewed by Moscow as a sign of failing western sanctions, this boost is long gone. Moscow is now exploring various strategies to keep its troubled currency afloat.

October 23, 2023 - Pitamber Kaushik

The dream of sanctions stopping wars

Despite various sanctions put in place against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is surprisingly doing much better than expected. It appears for now that at least in the short term, the Russian economy is able to bypass sanctions as long as other countries are willing to pursue business as usual with Russia. Whether or not the sanctions will have a longer-term effect and have any impact on Russian aggression remains to be seen.

When western countries adopted sanctions against Russia in response to Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine, western politicians promised nothing less than the complete breakdown of the Russian economy. The French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire spoke of the “collapse” of the Russian economy, while US President Joe Biden said that “We will keep raising the economic cost and ratchet up the pain for [Vladimir] Putin and further increase Russia's economic isolation.”

July 4, 2023 - Svenja Petersen

The re-Sovietisation of Belarus

The nature of the crisis in Belarus is the same as in other countries of the region, with the collapse of old Soviet structures in the economy, society, politics and ideology. Alyaksandr Lukashenka does not understand the urbanised modern society he is trying to rule. In order to re-establish control, his regime is trying to move the society backwards. Repressions will be extremely costly for Belarusian society, but Lukashenka’s goal is unlikely to be achieved.

The past two years saw growing pressure from western sanctions on the Belarusian regime. Each move Alyaksandr Lukashenka took since 2020 has further limited his room for manoeuvre. After each of his decisions – the brutal crackdown of the 2020 protests; the repressions that followed; the grounding of the Ryanair plane; and finally, the support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine – a new wave of sanctions was introduced.

December 7, 2022 - Aliaksandr Papko Kacper Wańczyk

Why banning Russians from Europe is the right thing to do

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s call to prohibit Russians from entering the Schengen area has received increasing support among EU leaders. However, it has also caused some disagreement within EU member states. Some argue that ordinary Russians should not be punished for Vladimir Putin’s actions, while others say that attempting to introduce a ban might cause division within Europe. But is that entirely true? The facts say no.

August 31, 2022 - Vladyslav Faraponov

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