Russia’s influence in the Western Balkans is traditionally based on its soft power, the energy sector and its diplomatic support for Serbia’s position on Kosovo. The religious, cultural and historic relationship of Moscow with the Orthodox population in the region has been taken as a reason for Russia’s attractiveness. However, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its consequences, the strength of Russian influence in the region is being questioned.

It is commonly said that the Russian aggression against Ukraine has further exposed the fault lines between Moscow and the West in the Western Balkans and that Russia’s aggressive posture in the region is only set to grow as a consequence of the war. Is this concern legitimate or is the Kremlin’s influence in the Western Balkans going to diminish as a consequence of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine?

The ongoing crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine have shocked audiences across the world. However, there appears to be a certain banal nature to these seemingly extraordinary events. A reflection on the writing of Hannah Arendt may help us better understand how such unmitigated evil can occur on an everyday basis.

In early spring 2022, as the horrors of the crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine came to light, a picture of a looted house was posted on Twitter. In the image, among the many items scattered across the floor, there was a book with ripped pages titled Банальність зла. Суд над Айхманом в Єрусалимі (Eichmann in Jerusalem: A Report on the Banality of Evil).

The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam aligns with tactics employed by Russian forces in various contexts before. This strategy involves the complete destruction of territories in active combat to gain a military advantage and instil fear in opponents. Understanding the Russian scorched earth tactic, and drawing from Ukraine's experience encountering it, is now crucial when planning operations against Russian military forces.

Russian aggression against Ukraine has gained notoriety due to numerous violations of international law and human rights committed by Russian troops. Tragic incidents such as the events in Bucha, Izium and Mariupol have left an indelible mark on human history. The sheer quantity of crimes committed is staggering, leading to valid assertions of a planned genocide of the Ukrainian population orchestrated by high-ranking Russian officials.

Ukraine’s newly liberated territories still show the scars of war. Critical infrastructure often remains damaged and life remains anything but ordinary. This is particularly true in the case of schools, with the education system in the town of Izium simply unable to provide for the country’s youngest citizens.

Almost a year after its liberation, Izium, a town in Kharkiv Oblast, bears the visible scars of the Russian aggression. Heavily damaged by the Russian bombing and having at least temporarily lost the majority of its population, Izium still remains an unsafe place to live. It will take a long time for the town to rise again.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 has impacted academic research on the region, forcing students and staff in western university departments to rethink their interests and curricula.

After Teresa Reilly took Russian classes for her bachelor’s degree requirements, she was keen to learn more of the language and decided to apply for a master’s programme that would allow her to spend more time in Russia. In autumn 2021, she enrolled in the Erasmus Mundus master’s degree in Central and East European Studies, Russian and Eurasian Studies, with the aim of spending the second year of her studies in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia. This would allow her to hone her language skills and work on her thesis, which was focused on a post-colonial view of the relationship between NATO and Yeltsin’s Russia.

Popular music has become an important propaganda tool to rally Russians in support of the war against Ukraine. An analysis of the ten most popular songs created during the war demonstrates common themes which have emerged, including patriotism, nationalism, religion and feelings for the motherland.

Music is the art most intimately connected to time. Indeed, it serves as a time machine for the transmission of culture, collective memory, concepts, mental states and feelings. But music has other purposes as well. It has a long history of being used as a strong tool for soft power. The Voice of America radio channel in communist countries was a striking example of this. Additionally, artists have utilised it as a form of protest. For example, the Polish rock group "Tilt" found in music the only way to express its rebellion against the communist regime in the 1980s.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has forced many refugees to make tough decisions about their future. This is particularly true in neighbouring Moldova, where many Ukrainians are deciding to settle on a more long-term basis. Despite the difficulties of this new life, a large number of refugees are trying to make the best of the situation.

Olena Mustiats, 41, had only the most basic requirements when she fled Ukraine with her six-year-old daughter last March: safety, affordability and a local language she knew. Leaving from her native Odesa, in Ukraine’s southwest, Mustiats settled on Moldova and headed to the capital, Chișinău. “I chose Moldova because it’s closer [to Odesa] than Poland, they speak Russian there, and because prices at the supermarket are cheaper than in Poland,” Mustiats said. A year and a half later, Mustiats and her child are still in Moldova, with no plans, and limited options, to go anywhere else.

In light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, NATO has come to a realisation that irrespective of circumstances, the present leadership of Russia will persist in its revisionist approach and become increasingly agitated in the event of a potential loss in the conflict. Consequently, NATO must proactively ready itself for an extended deterrence strategy vis-à-vis Russia, and be prepared to implement a defence strategy if the need arises. These are the key lessons already learnt over the last 15 months.

The upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius will be dominated by discussions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While member states have continued to provide all manner of aid to Kyiv, the Alliance has yet to take any concrete steps on Ukraine’s potential membership. Guidelines are now needed more than ever to strengthen both the security of Ukraine and the region.

Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine not only radically changed the security situation for the Euro-Atlantic space, but also affected the global balance of power and the interests of both individual states and the alliances they belong to. NATO, which directly borders Russia, had to respond to a qualitatively new security and political landscape in the region. And this reaction will not be comprehensive without political lessons, which should be drawn from Russia’s full-fledged war against Ukraine.

During the upcoming Vilnius summit, NATO will need to form a clear and consistent position and specify its own understanding of how the war will end. The Ukrainian side expects NATO to declare the steps necessary to guarantee its security and achieve the complete restoration of control over all its territories, ultimately leading to Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance.

While it is clear that there are a number of challenges and pending issues, the newly established sense of solidarity with Ukraine and urgency when it comes to territorial defence are driving domestic processes regarding NATO's adaptation and flexible response. Even if it is yet to be seen how quickly NATO states will adapt to the new environment and collectively share new commitments within the bloc, the new mentality is clearly being felt.

In the run up to the NATO Vilnius summit in July 2023, the Alliance is facing new challenges, but at the same time is benefiting from several opportunities stemming from the newly created sense of relevancy. The Russian aggression against Ukraine and the West has helped to revamp and restore the original purpose of NATO dating back to the post-Second World War period, especially in terms of the principle of collective defence.

NATO wants its member states to spend more on their militaries, but governments need public support. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a pivotal moment for both East and West, threat perceptions continue to differ. For current and future western governments to get public support for increased military spending, they need to explain the new threat environment now.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has brought about a paradigm shift in western security and defence policy. A new kinetic war on the European continent has revived NATO. Its member states are adapting strategies and strengthening the Eastern Flank. We are witnesses to historic changes. Whether allies are willing and able to defend NATO territory depends on capabilities and political willingness. However, preparing for war tomorrow means investing in military capabilities and public awareness today.