The recent arrest of Igor Girkin, more popularly known as Strelkov, by the Russian authorities is emblematic of the uncertainty now facing the country. Previously viewed as a useful asset by the Kremlin, the ultranationalist now appears to be a threat to Putin’s increasingly troubled rule.

Wagner’s abortive rebellion in Russia shows that there can be no business as usual. In order to prepare for an uncertain future, we must now accept some hard facts about the Russian Federation and prepare for its possible collapse.

Prigozhin’s challenge to Putin on June 24th has exposed the perilous situation now faced by the Russian president. While the country’s leader may attempt to crack down further on internal dissent, this may only further reveal his current weakness. As it stands, the established rules no longer seem to apply.

In spite of criticism related to the inaction of Russian society, it is important to remember the long-term societal trauma that has encouraged such silence.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has exposed the nexus between repressive domestic rule and aggressive foreign policy. As long as Russia remains a dictatorship, it will pose an existential threat to the security order in Europe. It is, therefore, in the West's interest to see a permanent dismantling of the current model of government in Russia. Putin's departure from office will create a short-term window of opportunity for political change. Contrary to widespread fears, the end of this autocratic pseudo-stability may pave the way for sustainable peace in Europe.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is simply another imperialistic adventure. As history has shown, the end of an empire does not mean the loss of imperial ambitions. Unless Russia faces a complete and total defeat in Ukraine and is forced to contend with its past and current aggressions, there is very little to suggest that Russia will end its imperialistic mindset.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has focused minds in the West with regards to helping Kyiv achieve a military victory. However, little has been said in relation to a post-war Russia. The new “7D Plan” offers a model through which a reformed Russia could once again be integrated into the international community.

The ongoing consolidation of Putin's dictatorship has been accompanied by a deepening, though still passive, public dissatisfaction with the political system and the ageing leader. Demands for change are subsequently on the rise. These attitudes may accelerate the erosion of a seemingly stable model of rule.

“What is the greatest fear of this toad sitting on the pipe? What are these bunker-dwelling thieves most afraid of? You know very well yourself. People taking to the streets.”

Facing the largest street protests in a decade, Russian authorities responded with an unprecedented wave of repression. The harsh crackdown seems to have had the desired effect: Navalny’s allies were forced to put their protests on hold.

Russian police detained Dmitry Gliuz, aged 30, on Sennaya Square, in the centre of St Petersburg, shortly after he came out from the metro. “I wasn’t doing anything wrong, just standing and looking at my phone, when suddenly policemen grabbed me and punched me in the stomach”. Gliuz was among the thousands of people detained on January 31st during the nationwide protests in support of Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny.

The space for freedom is shrinking in Russia. Many see a repetition of 1937 – a period of the most severe Stalinist terror, when government agents, at any moment, could come to any house and throw you in jail. The reason does not matter and it can happen to anyone. Yet still, everyone continues to stand by and stay silent.

On January 17th this year, the return of Alexei Navalny to Russia was being watched by the entire politically-minded society, or at least a large part of it. People across the political spectrum were equally fixated. I know many leftists (or liberals) who were sincerely worried, and many rightists (or conservatives) who rubbed their hands maliciously. All were watching via the internet livestream or traditional media, and some with one eye closed. The arrest of Navalny at Sheremetyevo airport became the starting point not only for street protests and clashes, but for intra-family disputes.

An interview with Boris Vishnevsky, a columnist and opposition member of the St Petersburg legislative assembly. Interviewer: Linas Jegelevicius

LINAS JEGELEVICIUS: Did you take part in the recent protests in support of Alexei Navalny?

BORIS VISHNEVSKY: No, I did not. I act in a different role. Most recently, there were only two Russia-wide demonstrations in support of Navalny – on January 23rd and January 31st. Instead of marching with the demonstrators, I helped those who, as a result of these marches, ended up in the hands of the militia and security forces. Setting them free takes much longer and requires a lot of painstaking and time-consuming work. My assistance includes various forms, including legal aid in the courts.