Astrakhan Oblast is an ethnically diverse federal subject of Russia located at the crossroads of Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the North Caucasus. The region’s previously marginal pro-independence movements have been gaining popularity since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What is the probability of intergroup violence in the Lower Volga area and how do members of Russia-wide opposition groups react to this challenge?

The German word "Zugzwang" comes from the words "Zug", which means “move”, and "Zwang", which means “compulsion”. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine today appears to be wholly influenced by such an irrational "compulsion to move". Much like the chess term, Moscow is now pursuing a move that will only worsen its position and harm itself.

The unforeseen consequence of the decisions made by Russia's power wielding elites could be the emergence of something entirely new.

Most western experts predict Ukraine will win the war with Russia. When it does, we should allow the Russian Federation to dissolve.

Western politicians want borders to stay the same. Stability is good for capitalism. That is why Olaf Scholz has stalled arms shipments, sending in the first six months of the war enough weapons to keep Ukraine from losing, but not enough to turn the tide. This is why, even after Russia’s atrocities in Mariupol, Bucha and Borodyanka came to light, and even with proof of the daily shelling of homes, preschools, and hospitals in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Odesa, French President Emmanuel Macron sought to help Vladimir Putin save face. Western leaders also cling to the status quo because they fear Putin will nuke Ukraine. This is an intimidation tactic also employed by the Soviet Union. But Putin is not suicidal.