It is hard to believe the shift in Georgia and Moldova’s prospects for accession. While Chisinau has emerged from a long period of uncertainty to champion the EU cause, Tbilisi is rapidly losing momentum in its negotiations. The reason for this change lies in two clearly contrasting governments.

Moldova recently endorsed the ideas of its pro-EU President Maia Sandu and her party during recent votes in October. However, it is unclear if this will prove to be the end of Chisinau’s political uncertainty regarding foreign affairs. While one round of voting is over, the country now looks to new elections next year.

Moldova’s recent votes in favour of moving towards the EU were met with great approval across the bloc. Despite this, the situation in the country is far from clear cut at the moment. With ongoing Russian attempts to influence the country, there is still a long way to go if serious progress is to be made in bringing the country closer to Europe.

On October 20th 2024, Moldova will simultaneously hold its presidential elections and a crucial referendum on the country’s accession to the EU, a strategic confluence that was initially seen as a mobilization tactic by President Maia Sandu but now looms as a substantial risk. If the referendum fails to engage sufficient voter turnout, it could not only undermine the current government but also potentially benefit pro-Russian factions in upcoming parliamentary elections.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shifted international attention away from yet another referendum in Belarus. Like all the previous ones, these reforms significantly change the Belarusian political landscape, while giving Alyaksandr Lukashenka even more influence and power.

A long-debated constitutional referendum was held in Belarus on February 27th. It had only one question: do you accept the new constitutional amendments? An alternative version of the constitution was put forward by the country’s democratic forces outside of Belarus called “The People's Constitution”. However, this was not even considered by the state working group. Despite an official invitation to all citizens to participate in public debate and suggest proposals, it became obvious that only those changes proposed in line with the regime's vision would be considered and adopted by Minsk.

“Let the people decide when to celebrate their national day”, one may say about the last referendum held in the Republika Srpska. But the things get a bit more complicated when a holiday for one is a horror for another, as is the case of January 9th.