Prisoners for potash: Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the GDR precedent

Minsk’s recent decision to release high-profile prisoners has been underpinned by US moves to relax sanctions concerning the export of potash. While this may well appear like a genuine thaw in relations, it ultimately resembles a tried-and-tested tactic by dictatorships close to Russia to use prisoners as a bargaining chip.

February 27, 2026 - Zach Rogers