An interview with Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola, former chairman of the NATO Military Committee and Italian defence minister. Interviewer: Vazha Tavberidze.

The inability of some NATO Allies in the West to not see the bigger picture in Ukraine is costing lives every day. While states in the region continue to raise the alarm, many of their partners are still frozen with indecision.

On April 25th 2023, New Eastern Europe hosted an expert roundtable discussion on the current lessons learnt from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and to prepare recommendations for NATO and its member countries ahead of the July 2023 summit in Vilnius. The summary of this roundtable, with some important lessons and recommendations, is presented here.

In light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, NATO has come to a realisation that irrespective of circumstances, the present leadership of Russia will persist in its revisionist approach and become increasingly agitated in the event of a potential loss in the conflict. Consequently, NATO must proactively ready itself for an extended deterrence strategy vis-à-vis Russia, and be prepared to implement a defence strategy if the need arises. These are the key lessons already learnt over the last 15 months.

The upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius will be dominated by discussions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While member states have continued to provide all manner of aid to Kyiv, the Alliance has yet to take any concrete steps on Ukraine’s potential membership. Guidelines are now needed more than ever to strengthen both the security of Ukraine and the region.

Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine not only radically changed the security situation for the Euro-Atlantic space, but also affected the global balance of power and the interests of both individual states and the alliances they belong to. NATO, which directly borders Russia, had to respond to a qualitatively new security and political landscape in the region. And this reaction will not be comprehensive without political lessons, which should be drawn from Russia’s full-fledged war against Ukraine.

NATO and western countries have pledged to support Ukraine for as long as it takes. At the same time, the United States and other countries have abstained from giving Ukraine long-range weapons and talk about Ukraine’s victory without aiming for a Russian defeat. This approach leaves Ukraine in a situation where it is expected to win with its hands tied.

One of the key questions facing NATO on the eve of the 2023 Vilnius summit is whether to offer Ukraine security guarantees, while Ukraine insists that it should be given a clear path to membership. In June 2022 the NATO Alliance defined Russia as the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. However, it has been careful to avoid a direct confrontation.

During the upcoming Vilnius summit, NATO will need to form a clear and consistent position and specify its own understanding of how the war will end. The Ukrainian side expects NATO to declare the steps necessary to guarantee its security and achieve the complete restoration of control over all its territories, ultimately leading to Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance.

While it is clear that there are a number of challenges and pending issues, the newly established sense of solidarity with Ukraine and urgency when it comes to territorial defence are driving domestic processes regarding NATO's adaptation and flexible response. Even if it is yet to be seen how quickly NATO states will adapt to the new environment and collectively share new commitments within the bloc, the new mentality is clearly being felt.

In the run up to the NATO Vilnius summit in July 2023, the Alliance is facing new challenges, but at the same time is benefiting from several opportunities stemming from the newly created sense of relevancy. The Russian aggression against Ukraine and the West has helped to revamp and restore the original purpose of NATO dating back to the post-Second World War period, especially in terms of the principle of collective defence.

NATO wants its member states to spend more on their militaries, but governments need public support. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a pivotal moment for both East and West, threat perceptions continue to differ. For current and future western governments to get public support for increased military spending, they need to explain the new threat environment now.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has brought about a paradigm shift in western security and defence policy. A new kinetic war on the European continent has revived NATO. Its member states are adapting strategies and strengthening the Eastern Flank. We are witnesses to historic changes. Whether allies are willing and able to defend NATO territory depends on capabilities and political willingness. However, preparing for war tomorrow means investing in military capabilities and public awareness today.

The Baltics’ painful historical relationship with Russia and their memory of occupations, along with first-hand experience of Moscow’s interference and aggressive tactics, have increasingly emerged as a precious resource for NATO and the European Union in understanding Putin’s strategies and countering them effectively. The Baltics have moved from being on the margins to the foreground in the collective policy-shaping and decision-making process.

Voices of small states often go generally unnoticed in times of trouble, when grand geopolitics prevails over diplomacy. When the temperature heats up, both observers and decision-makers tend to focus on power dynamics and the imperium of the strong. In the context of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have proven that their small size does not automatically equal irrelevance.

An interview with Slavjanka Petrovska, minister of defence of North Macedonia. Interviewer: Jovan Gjorgovski.

The crucial factor in Russia’s war against Ukraine is how to help Kyiv defend itself and win? There should be a straightforward answer: as Europeans, we should do everything in our power to assist the Ukrainians in stopping the Russian war of conquest and that Ukraine should decide the conditions of victory and the subsequent peace. Yet, unfortunately, there still is no consensus among the western partners of Ukraine on the war’s endgame.

It has been more than one year since Russia launched its full-scale invasion and over nine years since Moscow started its war in Ukraine. After the 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea, the Euro-Atlantic community made several attempts to recalibrate its security and defence policies. However, it was only after the shock of February 24th 2022 and its aftermath that most western states and societies experienced a rude awakening.