The Moldovan government has recently made an effort to move closer to the European Union. This has been particularly true following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the country heads towards pivotal elections in the autumn, people across the country are trying to work out what is best for the future.

On October 20th 2024, Moldova will simultaneously hold its presidential elections and a crucial referendum on the country’s accession to the EU, a strategic confluence that was initially seen as a mobilization tactic by President Maia Sandu but now looms as a substantial risk. If the referendum fails to engage sufficient voter turnout, it could not only undermine the current government but also potentially benefit pro-Russian factions in upcoming parliamentary elections.

The beginning of Moldova’s official accession negotiations with the EU will mark a pivotal moment in the country’s history. Despite this, full membership is still not an inevitability. Brussels must subsequently help Moldova to reform key areas of its society throughout the process.

The economic and political situation in Moldova, the small country to Ukraine’s southwest, remains tenable at best. While the country’s President Maia Sandu has shown resolve and used the situation to pursue the European path, not all Moldovans support her politics – especially those directly affected by the economic and energy crisis.

On a bright Sunday afternoon this past October, protesters marched, not for the first time, down the main boulevard in Moldova’s capital city, Chișinău. Others milled around on the pavement, holding up picket signs and joining in as the marchers shouted slogans like “Resign!” and “Down with Maia Sandu!”, referring to Moldova’s president. Another sign pleaded for help, in a tone that could be taken as ironic or else completely sincere: “God save us from the idiots of the PAS,” it read. PAS is the acronym of the Party of Action and Solidarity, Moldova’s ruling party.

Moldova recently made headlines as the country finally achieved EU candidate status alongside neighbouring Ukraine. Despite this, the country and its pro-EU government still face a great number of internal and external challenges on the way to further socio-economic success.

Success at the voting booth for Nikol Pashinyan and Maia Sandu confirmed the re-emergence of a strong public mandate for reformist parties

Politics in Moldova is on the edge of a perpetual crisis. It will be up to a new democratically minded generation to turn the trend.

While the EU has been helpful in facilitating negotiations aimed at resolving the political crisis in Georgia, it should remain vigilant when it comes to the threats to democracy in Moldova.

The political crises in Georgia and Moldova can only be resolved through national dialogue. The West could help by at least remaining consistent in its messages to both partners.

The Moldovan president is facing increasing pressure as the country’s complex identity politics catches up with the narrative she built during the election campaign.

On December 6th many citizens in Moldova attended protests in order to show their support for President-elect Maia Sandu. This was in response to a new and unofficial coalition in parliament that is now attempting to restrict the new president’s powers and push through a series of controversial laws.

The future of Moldovan politics will depend on Maia Sandu's ability to consolidate forces in the parliament. Changes in the standings of certain oligarchs is also bound to have an impact.