Moscow’s war in Ukraine has not only forced millions of Ukrainians to flee their home country but has also led hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens to seek exile abroad. Among the most popular destinations for Russians are two South Caucasian republics: Armenia and Georgia.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February, several hundred thousand Russians have fled the country. Some sources even estimate that more than one million Russian citizens have already gone into exile. Among them are some of the country's biggest celebrities, such as Alla Pugacheva, who settled in Israel, and music stars like Face and Zemfira, who both moved abroad out of fear of persecution for their anti-war activism.

The US has proven itself to be a firm supporter of Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression. Despite this, however, Washington has still not taken advantage of the various opportunities now presenting themselves in Eurasia and the strategically important South Caucasus.

The EU’s decision to not offer Georgia candidate status disappointed a nation that has long aspired to join the bloc. Despite this, European institutions have offered advice to get the country back on track in the face of various domestic issues.

In 2008, NATO did not grant Ukraine and Georgia a Membership Action Plan. It was mainly the result of Vladimir Putin’s personal persuasion at the NATO Summit in Bucharest which took place that year. The Kremlin considered it as a weakness of the West and attacked Georgia the same year. Is the European Union now capable of taking a bolder decision with regards to countries aspiring to join its structures?

Whilst Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova’s applications for EU membership were submitted before they were really ready, the Russian military assault on Ukraine has put the EU in a very delicate situation. Nevertheless, the EU has given the green light to start evaluating the eligibility of the three associated states for candidate status.

Never before have Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova's European prospects been as bright as they are now. All three partner countries in the Eastern Partnership region have already submitted applications to join the European Union. However, the trigger for this move was not the success of internal reforms or the fulfilment of other political and economic milestones (also known as the Copenhagen Criteria).

The war in Ukraine has also opened long-standing geopolitical wounds in the three states of the South Caucasus, which now find themselves on the frontline of the new Cold War. The modest reactions of Baku, Tbilisi and Yerevan to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine underline the precarious states the three countries find themselves in.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has geopolitical implications for Europe and beyond. This includes the three South Caucasus countries, all of which are members of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership initiative. Yet, governmental and societal reactions have varied in all three countries, with the Georgian government being cornered into a strategy of “non-deterrence”, the Armenian government subordinate to Russia’s security interests, and the Azerbaijani government pursuing its balancing policy while also seeking a strategic partnership with Moscow.

The European prospects of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova have become a key topic of debate since Russia launched its “special military operation”. Eager to protect their pro-western outlooks, the three states could soon gain candidate status with the EU.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine drastically changed the security environment in Europe. While the EU, US, China, Turkey and other actors are quickly adapting to the rapidly changing security environment, Georgia seems to be looking at the recent developments from the side lines.

Georgia’s political environment remains characterised by deep divides that have persisted for years. Following the EU’s own attempts to help the country last year, it appears that it is now the Georgian president’s turn to help forge a path forward.

After the illegal recognition of “Luhansk” and “Donetsk” separatist regimes and the direct invasion of Ukraine, the Putin regime could further its aggression not only against Ukraine but also Georgia.

Since the news broke early in the day on February 24th that Russian forces were invading Ukraine, many living in Georgia were quick to express solidarity and a willingness to help.

The Eastern Partnership faces an uncertain future as the European Union cannot offer any viable alternative for the group’s best performers. EU resilience in the region is now under strain. Given the increasing global dominance of China and Russia’s aggressive foreign policy, will Brussels manage to remain a credible actor in the region?

The year 2021 was full of challenges for Georgia’s democratic future and its relations with its western partners. After the parliamentary elections in October 2020, Georgia entered a deep and protracted crisis that, as of writing, still haunts the country’s politics. Disagreements over the results of the elections led to deadlock in February 2021, when the police raided the headquarters of the largest opposition party to arrest its leader. Naturally, this raised concerns among local human rights advocates and democracy watchdogs.