The war in Ukraine has caused millions of people from the country to flee to various states in Europe. Despite this, there are also many Russians who have attempted to leave their own country following the full-scale invasion. This phenomenon has been met with different responses in various states near Russia.

While Georgia and Ukraine have both suffered from Russian aggression, their relations overall remain strained. A large part of this issue is caused by the ill health of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, whose connection to Ukraine has caused a diplomatic rift.

Moscow’s carrot-and-stick diplomacy routinely receives a lukewarm response from Tbilisi, yet Georgia’s top brass has proven time and time again that its tough talk on Russia cannot be taken at face value.

Georgia’s government is once again moving further away from European norms. While the majority of the population desires closer links with the West, Tbilisi continues to only think of itself. This divide could have consequences for next year’s parliamentary elections.

The ruling Georgian Dream government has continued to frustrate wishes of Georgian society for integration with western bodies such as the EU and NATO, supporting a law that could directly challenge western integration. The Georgian public did not react to this subtly.

Georgia continues to struggle with issues surrounding its European integration. While the country’s own government remains unsure of its next move, the spectre of Russia and its authoritarian politics continues to loom large over Tbilisi.

Once a darling of Washington, Georgia again finds itself between a rock and a hard place.

Since February 24th 2022, Georgia’s economic ties and dependence regarding Russia have markedly increased, leading to heavy criticism of the Georgian Dream-led government about its lack of transparency around ties to Russian business interests. Most obvious among these concerns are those centred on the party’s founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire and former prime minister who made his fortune in Russia before entering Georgian politics.

Nearly one year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a stroll through the streets of Tbilisi provides a visual reminder of both the ongoing conflict and the Georgian population’s prodigious support for the Ukrainian people. With billboards flashing blue and yellow and Ukrainian flags nearly matching their Georgian counterparts in representation, it is unsurprising that a March 2022 poll commissioned by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) showed that 98 per cent of Georgians support the Ukrainian people.

Today’s Georgia is a country of contradictions. While most of the population has come out in support of Ukraine, the country has experienced a great amount of migration from Russia since the war. This, combined with a government uncertain of its foreign policy, has made Georgia’s future all the more unclear.

Russian migrants have arrived in Georgia in two waves. The first wave took place in March 2022 right after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The second wave took place in late September 2022, after Vladimir Putin announced “partial” mobilisation. They waited in long lines, often for hours, at the Larsi checkpoint. According to various data, there are between 70,000 to 200,000 Russians living in Georgia right now, some estimate that this figure is even higher.

Georgia’s ruling party hesitates to implement crucial reforms while the country’s citizens and EU impatience grows.

The European Union’s recent decision to award candidate status to Moldova and Ukraine has left Georgia in a difficult position. Whilst eager to integrate with the bloc, the country still suffers from numerous political issues. Tbilisi must now take full advantage of all the tools available to it in order to not fall further behind.

Since the restoration of independence in 1991, Georgia has increasingly identified itself as part of the European family. Despite this, no real reciprocal steps have been taken by Europe to acknowledge these developments. Georgia has most often been perceived by Europe as part of its geographical periphery, somewhat separate from the continent. Since the formal establishment of the European Union in the early 1990s, Tbilisi’s dream of joining the EU has remained a utopian vision. The country has constantly been referred to as simply a “neighbour” of the EU.

While the world remains focused on the war in Ukraine, an important political game is being played in the South Caucasus. The local states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia now find themselves in rather different positions as external powers attempt to jostle for position in this fractious region.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has destabilised not only Europe but also its neighbourhood and inevitably the South Caucasus. This region already has a complicated geopolitical milieu even without any external triggers. Regardless of the outcome, the war will result in a resentful spillover effect in the three countries of the South Caucasus, as they are connected to Russia through trade, remittances and tourism. The economic sanctions, imposed by the West, have enormously affected the rouble, decreasing the remittances sent from Russia by the Azerbaijani, Armenian and Georgian diasporas. Russia is and will be isolated and this will create difficulties for the nationals of the three countries living there.