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Tag: geopolitics

A skipped century – notes on premature predictions

Many experts believe that the rise of countries like China are inevitable and must come at the expense of the power of the West. Despite this, history is full of similar predictions that did not turn out in ways thought by their authors.

April 13, 2026 - Leonid Luks

The EU must balance ambition with caution while navigating the dynamic neighbourhood of the South Caucasus

Amid a renewed scramble for power in an Eastern neighbourhood increasingly defined by connectivity and energy routes, the EU is seeking a greater role. Yet an overly ambitious approach that overlooks the standards the Union has long championed could jeopardize its prospects in a region of growing geostrategic importance.

March 30, 2026 - Stoycho Velev

The Trump syndrome and the Maia Sandu antidote: lessons for Europe’s small states and middle powers from Moldova’s international leadership

As the global order is reshaped by strongman tendencies in both East and West, smaller states must learn to adapt to protect both their position and values. One clear example of this comes from Moldova, where local leadership is now exporting its own success story regarding democratization.

March 19, 2026 - Răzvan Foncea

“In conditions of intensifying systemic rivalry, it is no longer sufficient to invoke past narratives about the universality of values.”

Interview with Professor Agata Włodkowska of Vistula University. Interviewer: Ignacy Grzelak.

March 5, 2026 - Agata Włodkowska Ignacy Grzelak

Towards a new world disorder?

The post–Second World War international order appears to be nearing its end. It is increasingly being replaced by a system that openly presents itself as non-liberal, if not outrightly anti-liberal. Should this emerging (dis)order remain nominally rules-based, its rules will differ fundamentally from those established after 1945. They may simply reflect the shifting whims of powerful leaders rather than stable and broadly accepted norms of conduct.

February 23, 2026 - Andreas Umland

For a new European realism

New geopolitical realities have exposed Europe’s effort to build a rules-based world in its own image as hollow and contingent on American hard power. If the ideals of democracy and freedom are to endure in an age of global disorder, Europeans must now focus on protecting their continent.

October 13, 2025 - Arthur Kroen

Western diplomacy towards Russia and the Logic of Failure: why territorial concessions will not end Russia’s war

US President Donald Trump’s diplomacy with Putin over Ukraine remains wholly focused on the issue of land. However, the conflict ultimately represents a dispute at a much deeper level. In order to understand this, we must look at theoretical models that can shed light on why the conflict started in the first place.

August 14, 2025 - Alexander Sicheneder

Will Russia attack beyond Ukraine?

Debate continues with regards to Europe’s readiness for a potential war with Russia. While politicians talk about rearmament, it is important to remember the need for wider societal resilience. After all, there may be no need for a repeat of the events of February 2022.

July 24, 2025 - Valerii Pekar

The global AI race and infrastructure weaponization

The scramble for ever-more efficient Large Language Models (LLMs) is today’s new arms race. In the wake of Washington’s abandonment of global leadership and the rules-based international order, this race blurs the line between cold and hot confrontation in the new 21st-century world of three continental blocs. This race is a sign of the ongoing weaponization of all extant and new infrastructure, increasingly harnessed for warfare, be it hot, cold or hybrid. As a result, it is harder than ever to ascertain what peace means nowadays.

July 11, 2025 - Tomasz Kamusella

Why the Trump-Putin negotiations on Ukraine might bury the Eastern Partnership

Since 2009 the main EU instrument of engaging and integrating with the region of Eastern Europe has been the Eastern Partnership programme. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the evolving geopolitical situation have forced the EU to rethink its approach towards the aspiring states in the region. The new administration in the United States has added a new dimension to this complex dynamic. Where do these states stand in their bid for EU membership today?

With Donald Trump's return to the White House, the geopolitical dynamics surrounding the war in Ukraine have undergone significant shifts. Trump's rhetoric emphasizes the necessity of ending the war, whereas Ukraine’s priorities are not limited to the cessation of hostilities but also include the terms under which the conflict concludes, i.e. the provision of security guarantees.

May 5, 2025 - Tatevik Hovhannisyan

A time for unconventional leaders: Croatian assistance to Ukraine

With its remarkable post-conflict transformation, Croatia may have something unique to offer Ukraine at this critical juncture for European security. The Croatian government is punching above its weight in terms of humanitarian assistance, but the country will need to overcome serious domestic rifts and manage the failures of its transition to become a true geopolitical leader.

The first months of Donald Trump’s second term as US president have already put Ukraine’s existence and Europe’s prevailing security architecture at great risk. Trump’s style of foreign policy, including his undermining of long-held alliances and major international institutions, is creating a vacuum that may have to be filled by leaders in unlikely places. Croatia has the potential to be one of those leaders if Prime Minister Andrej Plenković wins out in a domestic political battle that exposes deep-seeded deficiencies in Croatian democracy.

May 5, 2025 - Alexandra Karppi

Europe at a crossroads: strategic security dependency in the age of uncertainty

The sense of unease caused by US President Donald Trump’s changing policy on Ukraine must result in action across Europe. While NATO member states can still rely on some established frameworks, a new outlook is needed in order to deal with issues concerning an overdependency on Washington.

May 5, 2025 - Tamar Gamkrelidze

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