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Tag: geopolitics

For a new European realism

New geopolitical realities have exposed Europe’s effort to build a rules-based world in its own image as hollow and contingent on American hard power. If the ideals of democracy and freedom are to endure in an age of global disorder, Europeans must now focus on protecting their continent.

October 13, 2025 - Arthur Kroen

Western diplomacy towards Russia and the Logic of Failure: why territorial concessions will not end Russia’s war

US President Donald Trump’s diplomacy with Putin over Ukraine remains wholly focused on the issue of land. However, the conflict ultimately represents a dispute at a much deeper level. In order to understand this, we must look at theoretical models that can shed light on why the conflict started in the first place.

August 14, 2025 - Alexander Sicheneder

Will Russia attack beyond Ukraine?

Debate continues with regards to Europe’s readiness for a potential war with Russia. While politicians talk about rearmament, it is important to remember the need for wider societal resilience. After all, there may be no need for a repeat of the events of February 2022.

July 24, 2025 - Valerii Pekar

The global AI race and infrastructure weaponization

The scramble for ever-more efficient Large Language Models (LLMs) is today’s new arms race. In the wake of Washington’s abandonment of global leadership and the rules-based international order, this race blurs the line between cold and hot confrontation in the new 21st-century world of three continental blocs. This race is a sign of the ongoing weaponization of all extant and new infrastructure, increasingly harnessed for warfare, be it hot, cold or hybrid. As a result, it is harder than ever to ascertain what peace means nowadays.

July 11, 2025 - Tomasz Kamusella

Why the Trump-Putin negotiations on Ukraine might bury the Eastern Partnership

Since 2009 the main EU instrument of engaging and integrating with the region of Eastern Europe has been the Eastern Partnership programme. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the evolving geopolitical situation have forced the EU to rethink its approach towards the aspiring states in the region. The new administration in the United States has added a new dimension to this complex dynamic. Where do these states stand in their bid for EU membership today?

With Donald Trump's return to the White House, the geopolitical dynamics surrounding the war in Ukraine have undergone significant shifts. Trump's rhetoric emphasizes the necessity of ending the war, whereas Ukraine’s priorities are not limited to the cessation of hostilities but also include the terms under which the conflict concludes, i.e. the provision of security guarantees.

May 5, 2025 - Tatevik Hovhannisyan

A time for unconventional leaders: Croatian assistance to Ukraine

With its remarkable post-conflict transformation, Croatia may have something unique to offer Ukraine at this critical juncture for European security. The Croatian government is punching above its weight in terms of humanitarian assistance, but the country will need to overcome serious domestic rifts and manage the failures of its transition to become a true geopolitical leader.

The first months of Donald Trump’s second term as US president have already put Ukraine’s existence and Europe’s prevailing security architecture at great risk. Trump’s style of foreign policy, including his undermining of long-held alliances and major international institutions, is creating a vacuum that may have to be filled by leaders in unlikely places. Croatia has the potential to be one of those leaders if Prime Minister Andrej Plenković wins out in a domestic political battle that exposes deep-seeded deficiencies in Croatian democracy.

May 5, 2025 - Alexandra Karppi

Europe at a crossroads: strategic security dependency in the age of uncertainty

The sense of unease caused by US President Donald Trump’s changing policy on Ukraine must result in action across Europe. While NATO member states can still rely on some established frameworks, a new outlook is needed in order to deal with issues concerning an overdependency on Washington.

May 5, 2025 - Tamar Gamkrelidze

Peace, not surrender: under these conditions Ukrainians will return home

According to Ukraine’s ministry of national unity only 30 per cent of those who are abroad have said that they were ready to return home immediately. Another 40 per cent are waiting for the official end of the war and long-term security guarantees. The remaining 30 per cent have now said they would build their lives abroad.

Many Ukrainian refugees who are now spread around the world fear that even after a ceasefire the war could flare up again, putting their families at risk one more time. Diplomatic pressure without guarantees of a just and lasting peace that takes into account Ukraine's interests is perceived as something akin to surrender. Such a peace would not provide what Ukrainians need most: certainty that their lives will not be turned into rubble again.

May 5, 2025 - Halyna Khalymonyk

Overcoming the crisis of hope

An interview with Agnieszka Holland, a Polish film director. Interviewer: Joanna Mosiej, editor in chief of the Sestry magazine

JOANNA MOSIEJ: You once said that your biggest dream is for the world to wake up and for us to have a future. Are we now living in a reality that resembles the Weimar Republic in its final days? Meaning, there is no hope and no return? That history needs to repeat itself?

AGNIESZKA HOLLAND: I am worried that it will be difficult to reverse from this path, unless there is a true will to do so. Of course we know that hope is what dies last, but this hope needs to be a collective, and not individual, experience. At this moment, when I am observing those who decide on our fate, I see that they neither have any ideas, nor will. And there is no courage.

May 5, 2025 - Agnieszka Holland Joanna Mosiej

Armenia’s geopolitical awakening: a democracy caught between empires

Yerevan’s attempts to strengthen its democracy have come at the worst possible time. As the world moves into a period increasingly dominated by dictatorship and disorder, Yerevan must not lose sight of its values as it attempts to forge a path forward.

April 17, 2025 - David Akopyan

The complexity of the peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan

A deal between Yerevan and Baku appears within reach after decades of tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite this, many issues still remain before any document will be signed by the two neighbours. Such uncertainty will naturally have consequences for more than just the South Caucasus.

April 9, 2025 - Nino Lezhava

Ukraine as ground zero for a new European security challenge

Russia’s alliance with other authoritarian regimes has grown to the extent that it is now attempting to challenge the current world order. This is seen most clearly in the battlefields of Ukraine, where technological cooperation has produced new weapons like the Oreshnik missile.

March 27, 2025 - Maryna Venneri

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