Following the crisis in Ukraine, the EU shifted from a more idealistic approach to one anchored in political realism towards its eastern neighbours. What are the factors shaping its policy towards Belarus?

The Belarus crisis has encouraged various groups and individuals to create metaphors and analogies as a means of understanding ongoing events. However, competition between these differing narratives continues to overshadow the uniqueness of the crisis, which still pervades all of Belarusian society free of any geopolitical aspirations.

The unflinching Belarusian leader is set on a course navigating his country through increasingly rough geopolitical seas. Lukashenka is hoping he can keep the East and West at arms length, while warming up to China at the same time.

One might not notice it, but certain changes are taking place in Belarus. This may be good news for European policymakers and diplomats who seek to engage Belarus and keep it balanced in its relations with Russia, as long as expectations are not kept too high.

Belarus is changing. It is changing in ways that help European engagement. But, to be clear, the area where change is minimal is probably the one where Europeans want to see the most improvement. This is the political sphere. The label “Last Dictatorship in Europe” may be out of date, but Belarus is not about to become a democracy any time soon. What is driving change is the concept of sovereignty. First is the logic of sovereignty, which has been operative for some time; but often belated or delayed by political factors, namely Belarus’s formerly close relationship with Russia. Second is the threat to sovereignty since the situation in Ukraine from 2014; though partly this threat can be traced back to the war in Georgia in 2008.