The September clashes were the most serious armed incident between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the 2020 Karabakh war. Experts are speculating whether Azerbaijan is gearing towards a bigger offensive in southern Armenia or just trying to pressure Yerevan.

A conversation with Maria Avdeeva, research director at the European Expert Association in Ukraine. Interviewer: Adam Reichardt

Events over the past few weeks have seen relations between Baku and Yerevan once again hit a low point. Now focused on recent military clashes, both sides continue to hold very different perspectives on the Karabakh conflict and its future.

The Tigray War is being fought between the proponents of the ethnic federation of Ethiopia (similar to Yugoslavia) and those of the ethnolinguistic nation-state of Tigray (similar to Slovenia or Croatia).

The involvement of Turkey in this conflict with the use of Turkish-sponsored fighters from Syria and Libya transforms this local conflict into a regional one and communicates to its civilisational nature.

Outside observers often find it difficult to understand why the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has been so intractable and resisted a peaceful resolution. There is a complex combination of several complicating factors, but the ultimate culprit has been the blatant failure of diplomatic efforts, both at the level of the international community and the conflicting parties.

The international community quickly called on both parties to exercise restraint, in a conflict that has potential to spin out of control.

Skirmishes in the borderlands of Armenia and Azerbaijan raise fears of escalation.

The uncertainty over the future of Nagorno Karabakh is likely to reignite hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Is Ukraine ready to regain control of the occupied part of Donbas?

Ukrainian officials are often under fire from critics due to their inefficiency in defending Ukrainian citizens in the occupied parts of Donbas. Unfortunately the criticism is deserved. Despite the creation of the ministry for the temporary occupied territories in April 2016, it is very difficult to find any positive results since its inception. Creating a ministry of information policy has not improved access to independent information. Even the rebuilding of damaged television towers and the building of new ones has been implemented very slowly and without any real success.

The revival of the idea of peacekeepers in Donbas demonstrates the desire of both Russia and Ukraine to reserve some space for diplomatic maneuvers. With such peace initiatives, each party aims to show its commitment to the peaceful resolution of the conflict in Donbas and to blame the other side for negotiations failures. The actual deployment of the UN mission is still unlikely.